Pennsylvania

[danwxman]

Kerry really didn't emphasize PA as much as I thought he would (or should). Bush on the other hand made PA his number one state...he was able to flip a few counties but still lost embarassingly.

Pennsylvania is a Democratic state.

[danwxman]

Kerry really didn't emphasize PA as much as I thought he would (or should). Bush on the other hand made PA his number one state...he was able to flip a few counties but still lost embarassingly.

Pennsylvania is a Democratic state.

Lost embarassingly? He only lost by about 3 points in a state that is very partisan on the national level.

Yes, embarassingly. He visited the state over 50 times...it was the big prize. It should have been a decisive win...what's more embarassing is that after all those visits he lost ground in Lancaster and Chester counties.

As for your comment about PA being a Dem state, I hope you don't mean national, statewide and local races make the state Democratic because the Republicans have a lot of control in other areas here.

Last I checked this forum was titled "Presidential Election Trends"....Thanks!

[danwxman]

So Bush lost PA embarrassingly? I guess that means Kerry got his ass handed to him in Ohio then.

Not really...Florida is the embarassment for Kerry.

[danwxman]

Westmoreland and Greene have changed a lot in just the past 10 years, as has all of western, PA.  I know I have said this a million times, but the "New Deal Die-off" is causing the west to shift dramatically towards the GOP.  I predict that, all things being equal, in 2008, all western, PA counties will go Republican, except Erie and Alleghany.

Fayette.

[danwxman]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

Wrong. The Southwest's GOP trend is rather recent. They are NOT Reagan Democrats...the Southwest voted heavily against Reagan in '80 and '84.

[danwxman]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

Wrong. The Southwest's GOP trend is rather recent. They are NOT Reagan Democrats...the Southwest voted heavily against Reagan in '80 and '84.

Wrong!

Spector, for example, carried the region in 86 and 92.  Thornburgh lost Westmoreland, by less than 4,800 votes in 1982 (the county was 2 to 1 Democrat at the time), Reagan lost it two years late by less than 10,000 votes (those were two I worked on then).  In 1980, Reagan lost Westmoreland by 5,500 votes, less than 4%; he lost Allegheny by 26,000 votes, less than 5% (registration was also 2 to 1 D).

In 1978, 21st CD was won by Democrat Bailey over Republican Bob Miller by less than 8,000 votes (about 5%).

You implied in your first post then Reagan carried the Southwest when it was quite the opposite. He still lost Allegheny and Westmoreland twice, and Clinton won both twice. Southwestern Pennsylvania was one of the most strongly anti-Reagan areas of the country.

But getting off Presidential politics...you say Spector was able to carry the Southwest in '86 and '92. Well, he lost Allegheny, Fayette and Beaver to Hoeffel in 2004!