Pennsylvania

[Smash255]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

The NYC burbs are very much the same (Long Island and Westchester especially).  Nassau, Suffolk & Westchester were solidly Republican for a long time.  Now are Democrat, last time GOP won Suffolk in a Presidential race was 92 by a pt, & 88 was the last time in Nassau & Westchester.  96 & 2000 all showed double digit wins in all 3 counties (including about 20 in Nassau & Westchester in both 96 & 2000).  2004 Westchester was still double digits, Nassau & Suffolk were a bit closer, but that had a lot to do with 9/11 (all 3 areas continue a trend Democratic locally)

[Smash255]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

How moderate are those Republicans.  Long Island still has a large amount of Republicans at the State Senate level (Congressman are mainly Dem, County Execs are Dem, County Legislature in Nassau is Dem, still GOP in Suffolk, but trending Dem)  but most of the GOP at the state level are fairly moderate (along the lines of Specter, Chafee, Giuliani, Collins).  Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

[Smash255]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

 Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

Neither Santorum or these local Montco officials very conservative. Montco Republicans tend to be RINOs.

Come on now Phil, Santorum is very conservative.  Is he Tom COburn?  No, but that doesn't mean he isn't very conservative.  Any with your RINO's comments I assume you mean similar to Specter (moderate to liberal Republicans),  The Republicans on the local level on Long Island tend to be in the same mold

[Smash255]

Speaking of ticket splitting, San Diego voted for Boxer and Bush. Has anyone figured that one out?

That still makes my head hurt...

How did San Diego vote in 92  or 96??  Maybe they have just very strong ties to incumbents?