Pennsylvania

[TeePee4Prez]

PA in the next two elections.

What makes you think Luzerne will flip by 2012?  I also think Carbon will flip back in 2008.  Good call on Monroe though.

[TeePee4Prez]

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What makes you think Luzerne will flip by 2012?  I also think Carbon will flip back in 2008.  Good call on Monroe though.

Just a feel thing.  Luzerne Dems are as bad as Montco Republicans are, and hopefully, they won't get their act together anytime soon.  Also, suburbs are growing in the area, and they are becoming increasingly Republican in places like Pittston, Clarks Summit, etc. 

IIRC, I think Clarks Summit's in Lackawanna county which will NEVER flip.

[TeePee4Prez]

As for the Luzerne Dems, i don't know what's goign on there.  the Montco GOP is looking at an inevitable funeral no matter how organized or with it they are.  The county is incredibly liberal and will trend ever more liberal.  The 18-30 population in that county is ridiculously liberal.  Think I'm joking, I've been in college classes with some of these kids.  A fair number actually think Mumia should be LET GO.  As liberal as I am on crime, even I have limits.

[TeePee4Prez]

My take on this region by region:

Southeast

Philadelphia voted over 80% Democratic and unless John McCain is on a ticket which will at best turn a large part of Northeast Philly and make it 65%, Philadelphia will continue to vote over 80% Democratic especially if we get a competent Democratic mayor.  The suburban counties of Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, and Bucks will continue to trend drastically more Democratic.  As of now, all of these counties have heavy GOP registration, but Montgomery and Bucks will flip by the end of this decade and Chester will have enough plus the RINOs to carry for Dems in the future.

Overall: Strong Democratic trend

Northeast Pennsylvania/Pocono/Lehigh Valley

This is where New York and Philadelphian exurbanization collides with coal mining and old steel country.  I see a strong Democratic trend in the eastern parts of this region especially in Monroe and Pike Counties.  The Lehigh Valley could be enigmatic because of the collision with traditional social conservatism/new professionalism and the possibilty this area coudl go the way of Montgomery County with liberal suburbanites.  The Upper Susquehanna/Lackawanna Valley could be interesting as well.

Overall: Lean Democratic trend, will vary greatly and offset by GOP trends in Lehigh Valley.

South Central Pennsylvania

The Baltimore-DC corridor may extend into this region.  While this may be gradual, it will nonetheless dilute the strong GOP numbers out of Lancaster and York counties.  However, there is a very strong fundamentalist movement in this region.  Will stay GOP, but margins will not be as astronomical.

Overall: Slight Dem trend, but will stay strong GOP. 

814 area code

I'll take soulty's word on Erie metro. Rest of area is not worth mentioning.  No wonder this area code hasn't been split or overlayed since 1951.  I'll concede this to soulty to argue.

Southwestern Pennsylvania

Uhh, I'll have to/hate to admit the Democrats are falling like a deck of cards in this area.  Losing State Sen. Alan Kukovich was bullsh**t the way he left, but nonetheless people voted him out.  20 years ago, it was unfathomable that people like Melissa Hart or Rick Santorum could be elected ehre, but guess what it happened and it was no accident.  Democrats are keeping Allegheny County for sure, will likely lose Beaver and Washington, and Fayette will be a fierce hold for us.  Soulty is not wrong on saying thsi area is getting more professional and industry is dying.  One thing I'm not getting is that unlike other areas where this economci trend is taking place, the Democrats are holding due to the replacement of the youth adopting socially liberal values.  Not happening here for some reason.

Overall:  One of the strongest GOP shifts in the nation.

Pennsylvania overall

The line of demarcation is roughly Interstate 81.  East of there will trend Democratic, west of there GOP.  East of I-81 has more population so i'm predicting a slight Dem trend in the future. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Flyers: hate to spoil the party 'an all but Bucks county was actually closer in 2004 than 2000.
It's been very close every election since 1992 (and in 1976 interestingly enough).

Never mind you're right.  However 2000 was a good year for the Dems there.  The other counties I am right though.  Chester shifted dramatically Democratic and will soon flip.

[TeePee4Prez]

Flyers: hate to spoil the party 'an all but Bucks county was actually closer in 2004 than 2000.
It's been very close every election since 1992 (and in 1976 interestingly enough).

Never mind you're right.  However 2000 was a good year for the Dems there.  The other counties I am right though.  Chester shifted dramatically Democratic and will soon flip.

I think Chester may have been to do with the Nick Berg thing actually

It's a socially left area, but has a GOP establishment.  The rural south and west of that county voted for Bush, not really the suburban areas as much.  Bucks still had less of a Bush shift than the national average.  I was surprised at that.

[TeePee4Prez]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

 Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

Neither Santorum or these local Montco officials very conservative. Montco Republicans tend to be RINOs.

Come on now Phil, Santorum is very conservative.  Is he Tom COburn?  No, but that doesn't mean he isn't very conservative.  Any with your RINO's comments I assume you mean similar to Specter (moderate to liberal Republicans),  The Republicans on the local level on Long Island tend to be in the same mold

I'm not getting into the Santorum argument. I have my belief and I'm sticking to it. The same situation with you. As for local Republican officials in Montco, yes, most would be Specter Republicans.

To you everyone to the left of Santorum is a RINO.

[TeePee4Prez]

hey, it may just be a rumor but I heard Kerry did something really objctionable.  He was in Philly, and he ordered a Philly cheese steak, but without the spices and the onions and light on chesse and everyone in the restaurant gave him a dirty look. May not be factual or anything, but makes for a funny story.  If it is factual, someone let me know. 

Anyways I expected Bush to win this state and was surprised when Kerry won it, partially because of the story above, partially because early on Bush extensively visited the state.

Yes, Kerry made a big food mistake in the city. He asked for swiss cheese on a cheese steak. Not good.

Oh wow!  Kerry mistakenly orders Swiss.  Guess what?  HE WON THE CITY WITH 81% OF THE VOTE!!!!