Pennsylvania

[J. J.]

It was an incredibly close state; in 2004 it was roughly as close as Ohio, so it is a state that the Democratic nominee cannot take for granted (unlike NY, for example).

Basically, the challenge is the Phila suburbs.  Until 1992, these were Republican suburbs.  Basically, a candidate has to appeal to the "soccer mon" vote, and Bush could never connect with them.

[J. J.]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92.  

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast.  

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

[J. J.]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

[J. J.]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

Wrong. The Southwest's GOP trend is rather recent. They are NOT Reagan Democrats...the Southwest voted heavily against Reagan in '80 and '84.

Wrong!

Spector, for example, carried the region in 86 and 92.  Thornburgh lost Westmoreland, by less than 4,800 votes in 1982 (the county was 2 to 1 Democrat at the time), Reagan lost it two years late by less than 10,000 votes (those were two I worked on then).  In 1980, Reagan lost Westmoreland by 5,500 votes, less than 4%; he lost Allegheny by 26,000 votes, less than 5% (registration was also 2 to 1 D).

In 1978, 21st CD was won by Democrat Bailey over Republican Bob Miller by less than 8,000 votes (about 5%).

[J. J.]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

Wrong. The Southwest's GOP trend is rather recent. They are NOT Reagan Democrats...the Southwest voted heavily against Reagan in '80 and '84.

Wrong!

Spector, for example, carried the region in 86 and 92.  Thornburgh lost Westmoreland, by less than 4,800 votes in 1982 (the county was 2 to 1 Democrat at the time), Reagan lost it two years late by less than 10,000 votes (those were two I worked on then).  In 1980, Reagan lost Westmoreland by 5,500 votes, less than 4%; he lost Allegheny by 26,000 votes, less than 5% (registration was also 2 to 1 D).

In 1978, 21st CD was won by Democrat Bailey over Republican Bob Miller by less than 8,000 votes (about 5%).

You implied in your first post then Reagan carried the Southwest when it was quite the opposite. He still lost Allegheny and Westmoreland twice, and Clinton won both twice. Southwestern Pennsylvania was one of the most strongly anti-Reagan areas of the country.

But getting off Presidential politics...you say Spector was able to carry the Southwest in '86 and '92. Well, he lost Allegheny, Fayette and Beaver to Hoeffel in 2004!

I said there was a "Swing" to the GOP in statewide elections.  Clinton won Westmoreland by less than 2000 vote, the point is that about between 35% to 45% of the Democrats (not taking into account turnout differention)* voted for the Republican.  The thing is, if that is the only factor, PA would be a Repubican State.  The "swing" has been a long term trend, occuring fairly strongly since at least 1980; though GOP doesn't come out ahead iin the SW, they had made it so close that it offset the Democratic registration majority.

I looked at the 1992 Senate race, and out of the SW**, Spector actually had a plurality of 911 votes.

*Republicans tend to turn out higher in general elections, so their percentage is higher.  That is part of it, but it doesn't explain all of it.

**All counties bordering Washington, Beaver, and Allegheny Counties, inclusive.

[J. J.]

Just to add to my last post, obviously the Southwest Swing is not the only thing going on in PA.

[J. J.]

hey, it may just be a rumor but I heard Kerry did something really objctionable.  He was in Philly, and he ordered a Philly cheese steak, but without the spices and the onions and light on chesse and everyone in the restaurant gave him a dirty look. May not be factual or anything, but makes for a funny story.  If it is factual, someone let me know. 

Anyways I expected Bush to win this state and was surprised when Kerry won it, partially because of the story above, partially because early on Bush extensively visited the state.

Yes, Kerry made a big food mistake in the city. He asked for swiss cheese on a cheese steak. Not good.

Oh wow!  Kerry mistakenly orders Swiss.  Guess what?  HE WON THE CITY WITH 81% OF THE VOTE!!!!

I don't know much about Philly politics but it seems like anyone with a (D) next to their name could get 80% of the vote in Philly.

Yeah. Thank you, MHS. Typical Philadelphia Democrat bragging about wins in a city that's about 80% Democratic.

Well, Street won the city with just slightly over 50% of the vote in 1999.  Ridge, in 1994, got 25%.  I would expect that in presidential races, the "basement" numbers might be 65%-70% for a popular, liberal Republican.

[J. J.]

I'm kind of scared of how well Democrats are doing in the cities.  Democrats keep going to the cities for more votes, but pretty soon the Democrats are going to run out of votes from these cities.  We need to go to the suburbs and rural areas for new votes.

Democrats have been doing well in inner suburbs. Kerry won some suburban counties in the bay area by over 40 points. Marin and San Mateo had voted for Ford in 1976.

Basically since 1991 or 1992, that has been the rule in SE PA*.  In 1986, Scranton, III actually carried SE against Casey, Sr.  In 1994, Ridge, hardly a rightwinger, lost the SE against Singel.

*SE any county that borders on any county that borders on Philadelphia, inclusive of those counties.