Pennsylvania

[True Democrat]

So what is a swing state to you.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico were the only ones closer this year (IIRC).

Ohio was also closer.

[True Democrat]

PA in the next two elections.

This would basically keep the status quo.  PA might trend a little Republican, but the Philadelphia suburbs would keep the SW in check.

[True Democrat]

                                 2000                2004                Swing
Florida                  Bush +0.01%  Bush +5.01%   Bush +5.00%
New Mexico          Gore +0.06%  Bush +0.79%   Bush +0.85%
Wisconsin             Gore +0.22%  Kerry +0.38%  Kerry +0.16%
Iowa                     Gore +0.32%  Bush +0.67%  Bush  +1.09%
Oregon                 Gore +0.44%  Kerry +4.16%  Kerry +3.72%
New Hampshire    Bush +1.27%  Kerry +1.37%  Kerry +2.64%
Minnesota             Gore +2.41%  Kerry +3.48%  Kerry +1.07% 
Ohio                      Bush +3.51%  Bush +2.10%  Kerry  +1.41%
Nevada                 Bush +3.54%  Bush +2.59%   Kerry  +0.95%
Pennsylvania         Gore +4.17%  Kerry +2.50%  Bush  +1.67%

It is interesting that of the 10 closest states in 2000, only Florida swung to Bush above the national average.

I don't think it would reflect that if you divided the 2000 Nader votes up.

[True Democrat]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

Wrong. The Southwest's GOP trend is rather recent. They are NOT Reagan Democrats...the Southwest voted heavily against Reagan in '80 and '84.

The trends in the Southwest was kind of odd.  They became Reagan Democrats after Reagan left office, if that's possible.

[True Democrat]

hey, it may just be a rumor but I heard Kerry did something really objctionable.  He was in Philly, and he ordered a Philly cheese steak, but without the spices and the onions and light on chesse and everyone in the restaurant gave him a dirty look. May not be factual or anything, but makes for a funny story.  If it is factual, someone let me know. 

Anyways I expected Bush to win this state and was surprised when Kerry won it, partially because of the story above, partially because early on Bush extensively visited the state.

Yes, Kerry made a big food mistake in the city. He asked for swiss cheese on a cheese steak. Not good.

Oh wow!  Kerry mistakenly orders Swiss.  Guess what?  HE WON THE CITY WITH 81% OF THE VOTE!!!!

I don't know much about Philly politics but it seems like anyone with a (D) next to their name could get 80% of the vote in Philly.

Yeah. Thank you, MHS. Typical Philadelphia Democrat bragging about wins in a city that's about 80% Democratic.

Well, Street won the city with just slightly over 50% of the vote in 1999.  Ridge, in 1994, got 25%.  I would expect that in presidential races, the "basement" numbers might be 65%-70% for a popular, liberal Republican.

But is the bragging necessary? In a city where they clearly have an overwhelming majority, these types of wins are expected. I can almost guarentee we'll see a few Democrats bragging when the Dems win the DA and City Comptroller races.

I'm kind of scared of how well Democrats are doing in the cities.  Democrats keep going to the cities for more votes, but pretty soon the Democrats are going to run out of votes from these cities.  We need to go to the suburbs and rural areas for new votes.