Florida 2014 Congressional Races

[Flake]

CD1
Jeff Miller (Republican-Pensacola) *Incumbent
Travis Miller (Republican-Pensacola)
James Bryan (Democrat-Laurel Hill)
John Krause (Republican-Pensacola)

CD2
Steve Southerland (Republican-Lynn Haven) *Incumbent
Gwen Graham (Democrat-Tallahassee)
William Drummond (Reform-Chipley)

CD3
Ted Yoho (Republican-Gainesville) *Incumbent
Aquasia McDowell (Democrat-Orlando)
Marihelen Wheeler (Democrat-Gainesville)

CD4
Ander Crenshaw (Republican-Jacksonville) *Incumbent
Gary Koniz (Independent-Jacksonville)

CD5
Thuy Lowe (Republican-Sorrento)
Glo Smith (Republican-Fleming Island)

CD6
Ron Desantis (Republican-Ponte Vedra Beach) *Incumbent
David Cox (Democrat-Daytona Beach)
Andrew Scott (Democrat-Edgewater)

CD7
John Mica (Republican-Winter Park) *Incumbent
Alan Azcona (Republican-Deltona)
Zechariah Blanchard (Republican-Winter Park)
Wesley Neuman (Democrat-Longwood)

CD8
Bill Posey (Republican-Melbourne) *Incumbent
Gabriel Rothblatt (Democrat-Melbourne Beach)
Corry Westbrook (Democrat-Vero Beach)
Karl Balone (Tea-Palm Bay)
Leon Ray (Write in-Kissimmee)

CD9
Jorge Bonilla (Republican-Orlando)
Carol Platt (Republican-St. Cloud)
Peter Vivaldi (Republican-Windermere)
Nicholas Ruiz (Democrat-New Smyrna Beach)
Roger Peck (Write in-Kissimmee)

CD10
Daniel Webster (Republican-Orlando) *Incumbent
Michael McKenna (Democrat-Davenport)
Shayan Modarres (Democrat-Orlando)
William Ferree (Democrat-Eustis)

CD11
Richard Nugent (Republican-Brooksville) *Incumbent
Michael Uminski (Republican-The Villages)
David Koller (Democrat-Ocala)
Matthew Schnackenberg (Libertarian-Masaryktown)

CD12
Gus Bilirakis (Republican-Tarpon Springs) *Incumbent
James Denton (Republican-Land O Lakes)

CD13
John-Michael Fleig (Republican-St. Pete Beach)
Frederick Thomson (Republican-Clearwater)
Donald Hackett (Democrat-Largo)
Michael Levinson (Independent-Saint Petersburg)

CD14
John Coney (Republican-Orlando)

CD15
Dennis Ross (Republican-Lakeland) *Incumbent
Alan Cohn (Democrat-Tampa)

CD16
Vern Buchanan (Republican-Sarasota) *Incumbent
Mitch Mallett (Democrat-Bradenton)
Daniel Durso (Independent-Bradenton)
Michael Rodgers (Independent-Sarasota)
Joe Venuti (Independent-Nokomis)

CD17
Tom Rooney (Republican-Tequesta) *Incumbent
Erin Magee (Republican-Lehigh Acres)
William Bronson (Democrat-Lehigh Acres)

CD18
Alan Schlesinger (Republican-Tallahassee)
Ellen Andel (Republican-Juno Beach)
Carl Domino (Republican-Jupiter)
Ilya Katz (Republican-Sunny Isles Beach)
Calvin Turnquest (Republican-Tequesta)
Nick Wukoson (Republican-Palm Beach Gardens)

CD19
Henry Radel (Republican-Fort Myers) *Incumbent
Mike Giallombardo (Republican-Cape Coral)
Brian Gibens (Republican-Cape Coral)
Curt Clawson (Republican-Bonita Springs)
Michael Dreikorn (Republican-Bokeelia)
April Freeman (Democrat-Cape Coral)
Ray Netherwood (Libertarian-Marco Island)

CD20
Jay Bonner (Republican-Palm Beach Gardens)
Gary Stein (Republican-Davie)
Jean Enright (Democrat-Palm Beach Gardens)

CD21
Henry Colon (Republican-Lake Worth)
Ted Deutch (Democrat-Boca Raton)
Emmanuel Morel (Democrat-West Palm Beach)
Michael Trout (Independent-Boca Raton)

CD22
Andrea McGee (Republican-Pompano Beach)
Jeremy Rodgers (Republican-Boca Raton)
David Wagie (Republican-Boynton Beach)

CD23
Joe Kaufman (Republican-Weston)
Stephanie Anderson (Independent-Dania Beach)

CD24
No filings

CD25
Mario Diaz-Balart (Republican-Miami) *Incumbent

CD26
Jose Peixoto (Republican-Key Largo)

CD27
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Republican-Miami) *Incumbent
Elsa Gonzales (Independent-Miami)

Inspired by Miles's thread.

[ElectionsGuy]

Races to watch are FL-2, FL-7, FL-13, FL-18, FL-22, FL-26. But there are also quite a few kind-of-sercure-but-not-so-safe republican districts (examples might include FL-7, FL-10, or FL-15) those might be competitive in a bad environment for republicans. Almost all democratic districts are gerrymandered safe.

[Flake]

Races to watch are FL-13, FL-7, FL-13, FL-18, FL-22, FL-26. But there are also quite a few kind-of-sercure-but-not-so-safe republican districts (examples might include FL-7, FL-10, or FL-15) those might be competitive in a bad environment for republicans. Almost all democratic districts are gerrymandered safe.

FL-2 could become quite competitive if the Democrats don't screw up this time. Graham might just win this in an upset if we put a little bit of money in the race, Lawson lost by five last time, so I think it is a race to watch.

[ElectionsGuy]

Races to watch are FL-13, FL-7, FL-13, FL-18, FL-22, FL-26. But there are also quite a few kind-of-sercure-but-not-so-safe republican districts (examples might include FL-7, FL-10, or FL-15) those might be competitive in a bad environment for republicans. Almost all democratic districts are gerrymandered safe.

FL-2 could become quite competitive if the Democrats don't screw up this time. Graham might just win this in an upset if we put a little bit of money in the race, Lawson lost by five last time, so I think it is a race to watch.

Oh, actually I just realized I messed up in my post. I said FL-13 two times and the first one I meant FL-2. But yes it could be very competitive and It's a top race to watch along with FL-18.

[GAworth]

Local Dems in the 16th are wanting to make a strong effort against Buchanan, it could potentially work but it is a long shot.

[Donerail]

Bold prediction - folks here will begin to hate the FDP. I see them as having a shot in FL-02, FL-10 maybe, FL-13 - and that’s about it as far as pickups go.

[morgieb]

Bold prediction - folks here will begin to hate the FDP. I see them as having a shot in FL-02, FL-10 maybe, FL-13 - and that’s about it as far as pickups go.

What other districts are actually competitive though?

[publicunofficial]

Bold prediction - folks here will begin to hate the FDP. I see them as having a shot in FL-02, FL-10 maybe, FL-13 - and that’s about it as far as pickups go.

What other districts are actually competitive though?

FL-27 and FL-25 are competitive on paper, but not while IRL and Diaz-Balart are in office. Same with FL-07 and Mica. Some say FL-16 and FL-19 are possible due to Buchanan and Radel's scandals, but they're fool's gold.


Val Demmings ran a great campaign in FL-10 last year and came up way short, so unless the FDP wins their redistricting lawsuit (Which would likely turn FL-10 into a safe Orlando-centric district), I seriously doubt Webster looses.


On the sunny side, Patrick Murphy is a fundraising champion and is apparently popular in FL-18, and his re-election chances look better by the day. Joe Garcia in FL-26 is still in danger, we'll see if the scandal regarding his Chief of Staff does serious damage. And for pick-ups, FL-13 looks like a sure pick-up, but stories about Sink's so-far non-existent campaign give me pause.

I'm very excited about Gwen Graham in FL-02, and currently consider it one of the non-open R-held seats most likely to flip in 2014.

[Donerail]

Bold prediction - folks here will begin to hate the FDP. I see them as having a shot in FL-02, FL-10 maybe, FL-13 - and that’s about it as far as pickups go.

What other districts are actually competitive though?

FL-27 and FL-25 are competitive on paper, but not while IRL and Diaz-Balart are in office. Same with FL-07 and Mica. Some say FL-16 and FL-19 are possible due to Buchanan and Radel's scandals, but they're fool's gold.

Val Demings ran a great campaign in FL-10 last year and came up way short, so unless the FDP wins their redistricting lawsuit (Which would likely turn FL-10 into a safe Orlando-centric district), I seriously doubt Webster looses.

On the sunny side, Patrick Murphy is a fundraising champion and is apparently popular in FL-18, and his re-election chances look better by the day. Joe Garcia in FL-26 is still in danger, we'll see if the scandal regarding his Chief of Staff does serious damage. And for pick-ups, FL-13 looks like a sure pick-up, but stories about Sink's so-far non-existent campaign give me pause.

I'm very excited about Gwen Graham in FL-02, and currently consider it one of the non-open R-held seats most likely to flip in 2014.

This is an excellent summary - Ross (FL-15) is the only other I can think of, but the Dem bench there is ridiculously weak (isn't it always?). IRL's district is the more competitive of the two, but not with IRL. I like FL-16 over FL-19 as pickable, but yeah, it's still far away from the others. Demings was talking about running again, but is running for Orange County Mayor instead. Rest is accurate, and I'll second the Sink non-campaign campaign (but I live in south county and she doesn't have an office south of Seminole) - but her fundraising totals in particular give me pause. Jolly is outraising her among Pinellas donors, and 83% of her donors are out of county.

[free my dawg]

Nick Ruiz is switching from FL-7 to FL-9 in an attempt to primary Grayson.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

David Wagie of Boynton is also running in FL-22, for whatever its worth.

Anyway, the only big development in FL-18 is whether or not Hasner will jump into the race. Ellen Andel is the clear establishment favorite if he doesn't run, but her fundraising has been pitiful. Murphy is the favorite, but as November gets closer, I can see Andel closing the gap a bit. Murphy has been sending video trackers after her, while ignoring Domino (has been), and Turnquest (Allen West 2.0). Katz and Schlesinger are not even on the map.

I most likely will be getting involved in the Andel campaign in a few weeks, as my Congresswoman (Frankel) has no serious opposition.

[Flake]

William Ferree, the former Eustis City Commissioner is running in FL-10 as a Democrat.

[smoltchanov]

One question i always wanted to ask - isn't Graham at least "somewhat too liberal" for FL-2? As i remember that district - it always (until 2010) had a conservative Democratic tradition with such congressmen as Fuqua, Grant, Peterson, Boyd. It includes a lot of counties, which were typically Dixiecratic at least until recently. May be - somewhat more conservative candidate would be better here?

[Donerail]

One question i always wanted to ask - isn't Graham at least "somewhat too liberal" for FL-2? As i remember that district - it always (until 2010) had a conservative Democratic tradition with such congressmen as Fuqua, Grant, Peterson, Boyd. It includes a lot of counties, which were typically Dixiecratic at least until recently. May be - somewhat more conservative candidate would be better here?

No, not at all - this is Bob Graham's kid, which outweighs the ideological factors.

[Zioneer]

I have a good feeling about Gwen Graham, I think she'll win this year.

[smoltchanov]

One question i always wanted to ask - isn't Graham at least "somewhat too liberal" for FL-2? As i remember that district - it always (until 2010) had a conservative Democratic tradition with such congressmen as Fuqua, Grant, Peterson, Boyd. It includes a lot of counties, which were typically Dixiecratic at least until recently. May be - somewhat more conservative candidate would be better here?

No, not at all - this is Bob Graham's kid, which outweighs the ideological factors.

Good then..

[publicunofficial]

One question i always wanted to ask - isn't Graham at least "somewhat too liberal" for FL-2? As i remember that district - it always (until 2010) had a conservative Democratic tradition with such congressmen as Fuqua, Grant, Peterson, Boyd. It includes a lot of counties, which were typically Dixiecratic at least until recently. May be - somewhat more conservative candidate would be better here?

Graham IS a somewhat more conservative candidate.

[Miles]

Graham has more CoH than Lawson spent all of last cycle.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

One question i always wanted to ask - isn't Graham at least "somewhat too liberal" for FL-2? As i remember that district - it always (until 2010) had a conservative Democratic tradition with such congressmen as Fuqua, Grant, Peterson, Boyd. It includes a lot of counties, which were typically Dixiecratic at least until recently. May be - somewhat more conservative candidate would be better here?

Graham IS a somewhat more conservative candidate.

I'd vote for Graham over several Florida Republicans. She is a bit on the conservative side of the Democratic Party, but I like her because she seems like a respectable, reasonable moderate instead of your typical "I'm a maverick! Pay attention to me!" style conservative Democrat or liberal Republican.

[Miles]

Hasner won't challenge Murphy in CD18.

[free my dawg]

Radel is resigning.

[smoltchanov]

Radel is resigning.

Safe R, if i understand correctly.

[Miles]

Its going to be messed up if there's a new Congressman from FL-19 before there's one from NC-12.

[NewYorkExpress]

Radel is resigning.

Safe R, if i understand correctly.

I think it's Likely R for a Special, Safe R for the General

Former State Rep.  Paige Kreegal is the lone notable GOP candidate running right now...

Former Rep. Connie Mack, Chauncey Goss, and Lizbeth Benquisto are probably going to jump in on the GOP side, Other possibilities include Lee County Sheriff Mike Scott, Talk Show Host Bill Cunningham Author/Activist Brian McLaren, and State Sen Anitere Flores (District 37)

Activist April Freeman is the only Democrat running at the moment... Other possibilities include 2012 nominee Jim Roach, State Representative Kevin Rader (81st district), State Representative Larry Lee Jr. (District 84) and State Senator Dwight Bullard (District 39).

[smoltchanov]

Well, Bullard could be best. Well-known, not especially liberal. But - Black, and i can't imagine this R+12 Southern conservative district to elect even very moderate Black (even less - a Democrat)