Mississippi

[Joe Biden 2020]

I know Mississippi is a Republican stronghold, but in 2012, it was a lot closer than everyone expected and took an unusually long time to be called on Election Night.  Is that a trend worth keeping an eye on or was that just Obama or was it dislike of a Mormon Romney?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Well, my answer is my prediction for the 2024 election.

D 283-255

[TDAS04]

Well, my answer is my prediction for the 2024 election.

So, blacks will be in the majority by 2024?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Well, if it was because of Romney being Mormon, then nvm.

[henster]

If a Democrat wins like 20-30% of the white vote then it flips I think Obama maxed out his support among blacks there.

[morgieb]

Hard to see so many blacks turn out like in 2012 and it's still extremely inelastic. Hillary probably loses by a slightly bigger margin than Obama did.

[JRP1994]

Single. Most. Inelastic. State. In. The. Nation.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The U.S. would be cheaper to run and more economically prosperous without Mississippi.  We should just auction it off.  Harry could be the head of global warming in the new Mississippi/whatever sh**thole wants it alliance.

[Sopranos Republican]

Well, my answer is my prediction for the 2024 election.

D 283-255

That would be very interesting considering Mississippi and Alabama have never voted differently in a Presidential election.

[JRP1994]

Well, my answer is my prediction for the 2024 election.

D 283-255

That would be very interesting considering Mississippi and Alabama have never voted differently in a Presidential election.

They have. 1960 and 1840.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Black Democrat + Mormon Republican =  about as close as this state is going to get any time soon.

The Republican in 2016 will carry it by a slightly wider margin, I'm guessing. It only gets interesting if somehow, the Democrat is a Southern Moderate and the Republican is a pro-choice or pro-gay minority.

[ElectionsGuy]

I know Mississippi is a Republican stronghold, but in 2012, it was a lot closer than everyone expected and took an unusually long time to be called on Election Night.  Is that a trend worth keeping an eye on or was that just Obama or was it dislike of a Mormon Romney?

Huh? It was called the minute the polls closed.

As for the reason for the result of 2012, the black turnout was/is at historically high levels, and white voters basically repeated 2008, so it created a democratic swing. It shouldn't be a competitive state unless the state at least becomes >40% black (which is very questionable). Then we can start talking about a slow transition into a battleground state.

[The Free North]

Single. Most. Inelastic. State. In. The. Nation.

This x 1000


Not having the first black president on the ballot will drop turnout regardless.

Expect the R to win by 5+ more points than 2012 (srs)

[dmmidmi]

Single. Most. Inelastic. State. In. The. Nation.

This. Unless something happens, where half of Mississippi's white population doesn't go out to vote, Democrats will not win here.

[7,052,770]

Give it a few more years for demographics to shift.  It was Romney's 17th best state and I bet it will be like 20th for the 2016 Republican nominee.

Single. Most. Inelastic. State. In. The. Nation.

I don't think there's any actual evidence for that meme. The fact that Mississippi has sent a lot of Democrats to Congress this century, compared to the typical solidly Republican state, suggests otherwise.

[MATTROSE94]

Mississippi was somewhat close in 2008 and 2012 due to ultra-conservative voters not supporting John McCain and Mitt Romney due to religious differences and ideological disagreements and higher Black turnout for Obama. I am not entirely sure how well the Republican nominee will do in Mississippi in 2016 though, as the state mght be close in a Hillary Clinton vs. Ted Cruz race.

[ElectionsGuy]

Give it a few more years for demographics to shift.  It was Romney's 17th best state and I bet it will be like 20th for the 2016 Republican nominee.

Single. Most. Inelastic. State. In. The. Nation.

I don't think there's any actual evidence for that meme. The fact that Mississippi has sent a lot of Democrats to Congress this century, compared to the typical solidly Republican state, suggests otherwise.

Yeah, white conservative democrats.

[DINGO Joe]

would have thought that all the gambling would have brought in a more liberal or libertarian crowd, but not really any evidence of that.

[Oedipus Rex]

Mississippi was somewhat close in 2008 and 2012 due to ultra-conservative voters not supporting John McCain and Mitt Romney due to religious differences and ideological disagreements and higher Black turnout for Obama. I am not entirely sure how well the Republican nominee will do in Mississippi in 2016 though, as the state mght be close in a Hillary Clinton vs. Ted Cruz race.

What?

[Flake]

Mississippi was somewhat close in 2008 and 2012 due to ultra-conservative voters not supporting John McCain and Mitt Romney due to religious differences and ideological disagreements and higher Black turnout for Obama. I am not entirely sure how well the Republican nominee will do in Mississippi in 2016 though, as the state mght be close in a Hillary Clinton vs. Ted Cruz race.

What?

For the second part, Hillary Clinton was down 1% to Ted Cruz in a Mississippi PPP poll.
Not sure about the first part.

[hopper]

It will probably be like R+4 or R+5 and have a Republican tilt to it for years to come.

[7,052,770]

Mississippi was somewhat close in 2008 and 2012 due to ultra-conservative voters not supporting John McCain and Mitt Romney due to religious differences and ideological disagreements and higher Black turnout for Obama.

There's really no evidence of either of these two things.  The Tea Party types may not have loved Romney, but they hate Obama SO much more that they all came out and voted for him.

Demographic drift is the reason Mississippi has fallen from the 10th or so most Republican state to the 17th or so.  Black birthrates have been higher than white birthrates for decades, and white emigrate to other states at a much higher rate than blacks. Just from 2000 to 2010 Mississippi's white % fell by 2.5 percentage points (I believe that number includes white Hispanics, so the white non-Hispanic rate probably fell slightly more than that), and that trend will continue and probably quicken.  I would expect Mississippi to only barely be majority white by 2030, if not plurality.

Also, remember that even Kerry won the under-30 vote in Mississippi in 2004 (he won it in about 30 states IIRC).  That's now the under-40 vote in Mississippi.  Sure, some of those under-40s have found Jesus and are now good repentant Baptists, but I don't think that's a very high percentage.  On the contrary, old white Mississippians are much more Republican than what is typical of their age group.  This is a fascinating article, although it might be a little too optimistic (from my perspective): http://ablogofrivals.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/mississippi-blues-the-emerging-democratic-majority/

[Frodo]

Mississippi was somewhat close in 2008 and 2012 due to ultra-conservative voters not supporting John McCain and Mitt Romney due to religious differences and ideological disagreements and higher Black turnout for Obama.

There's really no evidence of either of these two things.  The Tea Party types may not have loved Romney, but they hate Obama SO much more that they all came out and voted for him.

Demographic drift is the reason Mississippi has fallen from the 10th or so most Republican state to the 17th or so.  Black birthrates have been higher than white birthrates for decades, and white emigrate to other states at a much higher rate than blacks. Just from 2000 to 2010 Mississippi's white % fell by 2.5 percentage points (I believe that number includes white Hispanics, so the white non-Hispanic rate probably fell slightly more than that), and that trend will continue and probably quicken.  I would expect Mississippi to only barely be majority white by 2030, if not plurality.

Also, remember that even Kerry won the under-30 vote in Mississippi in 2004 (he won it in about 30 states IIRC).  That's now the under-40 vote in Mississippi.  Sure, some of those under-40s have found Jesus and are now good repentant Baptists, but I don't think that's a very high percentage.  On the contrary, old white Mississippians are much more Republican than what is typical of their age group.  This is a fascinating article, although it might be a little too optimistic (from my perspective): http://ablogofrivals.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/mississippi-blues-the-emerging-democratic-majority/

So should we expect Mississippi to go Democratic before Texas?  How about Georgia? 

[Skill and Chance]

Mississippi was somewhat close in 2008 and 2012 due to ultra-conservative voters not supporting John McCain and Mitt Romney due to religious differences and ideological disagreements and higher Black turnout for Obama.

There's really no evidence of either of these two things.  The Tea Party types may not have loved Romney, but they hate Obama SO much more that they all came out and voted for him.

Demographic drift is the reason Mississippi has fallen from the 10th or so most Republican state to the 17th or so.  Black birthrates have been higher than white birthrates for decades, and white emigrate to other states at a much higher rate than blacks. Just from 2000 to 2010 Mississippi's white % fell by 2.5 percentage points (I believe that number includes white Hispanics, so the white non-Hispanic rate probably fell slightly more than that), and that trend will continue and probably quicken.  I would expect Mississippi to only barely be majority white by 2030, if not plurality.

Also, remember that even Kerry won the under-30 vote in Mississippi in 2004 (he won it in about 30 states IIRC).  That's now the under-40 vote in Mississippi.  Sure, some of those under-40s have found Jesus and are now good repentant Baptists, but I don't think that's a very high percentage.  On the contrary, old white Mississippians are much more Republican than what is typical of their age group.  This is a fascinating article, although it might be a little too optimistic (from my perspective): http://ablogofrivals.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/mississippi-blues-the-emerging-democratic-majority/

So should we expect Mississippi to go Democratic before Texas?  How about Georgia? 

Almost certainly after Georgia (it's "next" IMO).  Mississippi probably gets interesting before Texas, though.  Democrats need to get over the idea that Texas is swinging until it is majority-Hispanic by voter registration and/or gains another 10 CDs of Northerners/Californians.

[7,052,770]

So should we expect Mississippi to go Democratic before Texas?  How about Georgia? 

I don't know, and you can't really compare the situations anyway.

Texas and Georgia are becoming more possible for Democrats because Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, etc., are becoming more cosmopolitan cities that produce lots of educated people and attract them to move in from other states.  I wish Jackson were like that, I really do, but it's not and may never be.  Texas and Georgia will probably be swing states by 2028, but I doubt they will ever be solidly Democratic states -- there's still lots of religious, conservative rural areas in those states, and I know the Republicans will put a high priority on keeping them.

Mississippi, on the other hand, will reach a demographic tipping point one day and flip from solidly red to solidly blue overnight.  It will happen before the state tips to majority black, since right now about 15-20% of whites vote Democratic compared to the 1-2% of blacks, and it may happen a little sooner, since, as the linked article points out, Mississippi whites over 65 are considerably more hyperRepublican than whites under 65.  While I reject the idea that Mississippi is the most inelastic state in the nation (Gene Taylor, Travis Childers, and Jim Hood are evidence otherwise), it is still a pretty inelastic state, and once the flip happens, that will help the Democrats.