Why is it so hard to find election data for Alaska? (user search)
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  Why is it so hard to find election data for Alaska? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why is it so hard to find election data for Alaska?  (Read 6568 times)
cinyc
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« on: January 03, 2014, 08:59:58 PM »

It is not difficult to find Alaska election results.  The Alaska Division of Election's website has precinct-level data available from 1960.  What is difficult is compiling municipality/borough/CDP results, since, as Lewis said, results are complied by state House District and absentees, early and questioned votes are not broken down by precinct.

What do you want from the 2008 and 2010 Senate races?  I have a 2010 Alaska database that includes 2008 and preliminary 2010 data.  I'd have to compile the final 2010 data, which takes a bit of time because the Division of Elections uses a PDF format that's not easily compatible with Excel.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2014, 09:17:53 PM »

It is not difficult to find Alaska election results.  The Alaska Division of Election's website has precinct-level data available from 1960.  What is difficult is compiling municipality/borough/CDP results, since, as Lewis said, results are complied by state House District and absentees, early and questioned votes are not broken down by precinct.

What do you want from the 2008 and 2010 Senate races?  I have a 2010 Alaska database that includes 2008 and preliminary 2010 data.  I'd have to compile the final 2010 data, which takes a bit of time because the Division of Elections uses a PDF format that's not easily compatible with Excel.

I was looking specifically for maps.

Maps of what?  I can make whatever 2008 results-by-house district map you want for any race.  (In fact, if you do a search of the website, you might find some already posted.)   I can also make a 2010 map from the preliminary pre-absentee, early and questioned vote data.  The Alaska website isn't cooperating with me right now to download final 2010 results by HD.
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2014, 12:12:18 AM »

2010 Alaska Senate by AK House District from PRELIMINARY ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS.  Excludes Absentee, Early and Questioned votes.  All write-ins assumed for Murkowski (Green).  Miller (R) in Blue.  McAdams (D) in Red.

Statewide:



Anchorage:




Mat-Su Valley:




Fairbanks:


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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2014, 12:20:41 AM »

2008 Senate.  Begich (D) in Red.  Stevens (R) in Blue.  Begich won 47.8%-46.5%.

Statewide:




Anchorage:




Mat-Su Valley:




Fairbanks:


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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2014, 12:27:05 AM »

2008 AK-AL House.  Young (R) in blue.  Berkowitz (D) in red.  Young won 50.1%-45.0%:

Statewide:



Anchorage:



Mat-Su Valley:



Fairbanks:


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cinyc
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2014, 01:53:28 PM »

The 2008 Hatman map looks like it is by municipality/CDP, not House District.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2014, 09:19:48 PM »

Lewis Trondheim posted a 2012 Presidential results by-Borough/Census Area map in the 2012 Alaska results thread:

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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2014, 09:53:28 PM »
« Edited: January 06, 2014, 03:04:00 AM by cinyc »

And I can map the 2012 Presidential results by precinct.  This is the election day vote ONLY.  Absentee, question and early votes were NOT allocated to the precincts.  It's nearly impossible to do so in any reasonable manner.

The Yellow lines are the Borough/Census Area Boundaries.  The grey lines are precinct boundaries:

Statewide:


Anchorage Municipality:


The older areas of the city near and around Downtown Anchorage generally voted for Obama, including the two University of Alaska at Anchorage precincts.  The rest of the city, save the ski town of Girdwood and its neighbor Indian on the city's southern outskirts, generally voted for Romney.  Stuckagain Heights was a tie.

Mat-Su Borough:


The Anchorage exurbs of the Mat-Su Valley are the Republican heartland of Alaska.  Sarah Palin is from here.  Romney won all but one precinct, often with over 70% of the vote.  The one precinct Romney lost is Talkeetna, a quirky town that is basecamp for treks to Mount McKinley.

Kenai Peninsula Borough:


The Kenai Peninsula is also prime Republican territory.  Romney won most areas, in some places with over 70% of the vote.  But Obama also racked up wins here, in the hippy community of Hope in the north, in the Alaska Native community of Tyonek on the other side of Cook Inlet, and in the areas surrounding Homer in the south of the borough.  

Note that the blue precinct on the ocean in the southwest is actually attached to Port Lyons on Kodiak Island for some bizarre reason.  It is in a separate house district with more rural areas.  I don't think many people live there, anyway.

Fairbanks-North Star Borough:


Romney won most of the borough, though generally not by as large a margin as in the Mat-Su or Kenai.  Obama's best areas were near the University of Alaska at Fairbanks in the west of the borough.  Romney did his best in North Pole and the east.  One district near downtown Fairbanks tilted Obama.

Juneau City and Borough:


The state capital of Juneau is a Democratic stronghold.  Nevertheless, Romney squeaked by in four precincts in Juneau's suburban Mendenhall Valley.  Obama won the rest, breaking 80% in Juneau Number 2 near downtown.
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2014, 12:05:22 AM »

Here's the 2012 AK-AL House election by precinct.  Again, this is of the election-day vote only.  Young (R) beat Cissna (D) 64%-29% overall, and 65%-27% on election day.

The yellow lines are the Borough/Census Area Boundaries.  The grey lines are precinct boundaries:

Statewide:


Young won almost everywhere, including bush Alaska, except in the traditional Democratic strongholds like Juneau, Talkeetna and Denali National Park.

Anchorage Inset:


Some precincts in and around Downtown Anchorage were one of the few areas Young lost.
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cinyc
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« Reply #9 on: January 06, 2014, 03:14:10 AM »

The one precinct Romney lost is Talkeetna, a quirky town that is basecamp for treks to Mount Everest.

That's a remarkable geographic feat Wink

Whoops!  Yes, that would be quite a feat.  It should have said Mount McKinley/Denali.

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HD 40, the northernmost state house district, has a Democratic state house rep and voted narrowly for the Democrats in the 2010 gubernatorial race.  HD40 is where the oil is, but the people don't live near the oil.  Over half the registered voters in HD40 live in the borough seats of Barrow (North Slope Borough) and Kotzebue (Northwest Arctic Borough).  The rest live in small settlements in the bush.
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cinyc
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« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2014, 04:06:54 PM »

Here's the Presidential swing map by Borough/Census Area from 2008 to 2012.  I used Lewis' borough vote numbers in the 2008 and 2012 threads, separating Wrangell and Petersburg in 2008 to match the 2012 map.  I measured swing by change in margin from 2008 to 2012.  

Every subdivision swung toward Obama, none as strongly as rural Alaska off the railbelt.  As Lewis said, the Alaska Natives swung most heavily toward Obama in 2012.

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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: January 06, 2014, 06:21:05 PM »
« Edited: January 06, 2014, 06:23:05 PM by cinyc »

Here's the final results of the 2010 Alaska Senate general election.  I don't think any district flipped from the preliminary results (HD 23 in downtown Anchorage was close.  Write-in beat McAdams but McAdams beat the Murkowski write-ins), but the color gradation may have changed in some districts.  I changed Murkowski's (Write-in R) color from green to yellow since light blue and light green look alike.  Miller (R) is in blue.  McAdams (D) is in red.  In the Anchorage and Fairbanks inset, municipal lines are green.

The bush Alaska HDs gave Murkowski her greatest margin of victory.

Statewide:


Anchorage:


Fairbanks:
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cinyc
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« Reply #12 on: January 06, 2014, 07:12:21 PM »

This is Fuzzybigfoot's map of Presidential Elections in Alaska, 1960-2012.  It looks like it is in part by Alaska House District, at least in rural areas for recent years.

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