Why is it so hard to find election data for Alaska?
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  Why is it so hard to find election data for Alaska?
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Author Topic: Why is it so hard to find election data for Alaska?  (Read 6498 times)
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Just Passion Through
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« on: January 03, 2014, 09:00:07 AM »

This has probably been asked a million times on here and for that I apologize, but does anybody know?  I don't know much about Alaska's voting trends other than that its rural areas tend to vote Democratic and a Democrat must do considerably well in the more conservative cities to win the state, which I expect is a result of racial divide.  Also, if anyone can post maps or data from the 2008 and 2010 Senate races, I'd appreciate it. Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2014, 02:47:11 PM »

Alaska does not compile election results by boroughs, but by state house districts. Nor does it compile early / absentee votes by originating precinct. That is the answer to your question.

And the description in the second sentence is far too simplistic. Smiley

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henster
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« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2014, 06:48:25 PM »

Is Alaksa all Vote by Mail?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2014, 07:23:48 PM »


My understanding is that in the remote rural regions it is, tho people there still have the option to make the trek into a town that has a polling station.
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2014, 08:59:58 PM »

It is not difficult to find Alaska election results.  The Alaska Division of Election's website has precinct-level data available from 1960.  What is difficult is compiling municipality/borough/CDP results, since, as Lewis said, results are complied by state House District and absentees, early and questioned votes are not broken down by precinct.

What do you want from the 2008 and 2010 Senate races?  I have a 2010 Alaska database that includes 2008 and preliminary 2010 data.  I'd have to compile the final 2010 data, which takes a bit of time because the Division of Elections uses a PDF format that's not easily compatible with Excel.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2014, 09:13:45 PM »

It is not difficult to find Alaska election results.  The Alaska Division of Election's website has precinct-level data available from 1960.  What is difficult is compiling municipality/borough/CDP results, since, as Lewis said, results are complied by state House District and absentees, early and questioned votes are not broken down by precinct.

What do you want from the 2008 and 2010 Senate races?  I have a 2010 Alaska database that includes 2008 and preliminary 2010 data.  I'd have to compile the final 2010 data, which takes a bit of time because the Division of Elections uses a PDF format that's not easily compatible with Excel.

I was looking specifically for maps.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2014, 09:17:53 PM »

It is not difficult to find Alaska election results.  The Alaska Division of Election's website has precinct-level data available from 1960.  What is difficult is compiling municipality/borough/CDP results, since, as Lewis said, results are complied by state House District and absentees, early and questioned votes are not broken down by precinct.

What do you want from the 2008 and 2010 Senate races?  I have a 2010 Alaska database that includes 2008 and preliminary 2010 data.  I'd have to compile the final 2010 data, which takes a bit of time because the Division of Elections uses a PDF format that's not easily compatible with Excel.

I was looking specifically for maps.

Maps of what?  I can make whatever 2008 results-by-house district map you want for any race.  (In fact, if you do a search of the website, you might find some already posted.)   I can also make a 2010 map from the preliminary pre-absentee, early and questioned vote data.  The Alaska website isn't cooperating with me right now to download final 2010 results by HD.
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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2014, 12:12:18 AM »

2010 Alaska Senate by AK House District from PRELIMINARY ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS.  Excludes Absentee, Early and Questioned votes.  All write-ins assumed for Murkowski (Green).  Miller (R) in Blue.  McAdams (D) in Red.

Statewide:



Anchorage:




Mat-Su Valley:




Fairbanks:


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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2014, 12:20:41 AM »

2008 Senate.  Begich (D) in Red.  Stevens (R) in Blue.  Begich won 47.8%-46.5%.

Statewide:




Anchorage:




Mat-Su Valley:




Fairbanks:


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cinyc
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« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2014, 12:27:05 AM »

2008 AK-AL House.  Young (R) in blue.  Berkowitz (D) in red.  Young won 50.1%-45.0%:

Statewide:



Anchorage:



Mat-Su Valley:



Fairbanks:


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minionofmidas
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« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2014, 07:39:10 AM »


My understanding is that in the remote rural regions it is, tho people there still have the option to make the trek into a town that has a polling station.
The population of the really remote rural regions of Alaska live in small-but-not-minuscule settlements isolated from each other. They have little reason to vote by mail, and don't do so by nationally remarkable rates.
There are some areas of Alaska however that are effectively vote-by-mail.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2014, 07:55:21 AM »

Wow, it appears there are very few gerrymanders in the state. Would that be correct?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2014, 08:45:09 AM »

There really weren't any, at all, until 2012. The new map is a lot worse.
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« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2014, 11:32:02 AM »

2012 president

2008
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2014, 01:50:23 PM »

Looks like Alaska is the opposite of most states, where Republicans win wide swaths of the total area but lose overall.
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cinyc
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« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2014, 01:53:28 PM »

The 2008 Hatman map looks like it is by municipality/CDP, not House District.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2014, 02:30:43 PM »

The 2008 Hatman map looks like it is by municipality/CDP, not House District.

It's by borough / census area.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2014, 06:18:22 PM »

The maps that were posted are pretty much what I was looking for.  Thanks.
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2014, 09:19:48 PM »

Lewis Trondheim posted a 2012 Presidential results by-Borough/Census Area map in the 2012 Alaska results thread:

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cinyc
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« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2014, 09:53:28 PM »
« Edited: January 06, 2014, 03:04:00 AM by cinyc »

And I can map the 2012 Presidential results by precinct.  This is the election day vote ONLY.  Absentee, question and early votes were NOT allocated to the precincts.  It's nearly impossible to do so in any reasonable manner.

The Yellow lines are the Borough/Census Area Boundaries.  The grey lines are precinct boundaries:

Statewide:


Anchorage Municipality:


The older areas of the city near and around Downtown Anchorage generally voted for Obama, including the two University of Alaska at Anchorage precincts.  The rest of the city, save the ski town of Girdwood and its neighbor Indian on the city's southern outskirts, generally voted for Romney.  Stuckagain Heights was a tie.

Mat-Su Borough:


The Anchorage exurbs of the Mat-Su Valley are the Republican heartland of Alaska.  Sarah Palin is from here.  Romney won all but one precinct, often with over 70% of the vote.  The one precinct Romney lost is Talkeetna, a quirky town that is basecamp for treks to Mount McKinley.

Kenai Peninsula Borough:


The Kenai Peninsula is also prime Republican territory.  Romney won most areas, in some places with over 70% of the vote.  But Obama also racked up wins here, in the hippy community of Hope in the north, in the Alaska Native community of Tyonek on the other side of Cook Inlet, and in the areas surrounding Homer in the south of the borough.  

Note that the blue precinct on the ocean in the southwest is actually attached to Port Lyons on Kodiak Island for some bizarre reason.  It is in a separate house district with more rural areas.  I don't think many people live there, anyway.

Fairbanks-North Star Borough:


Romney won most of the borough, though generally not by as large a margin as in the Mat-Su or Kenai.  Obama's best areas were near the University of Alaska at Fairbanks in the west of the borough.  Romney did his best in North Pole and the east.  One district near downtown Fairbanks tilted Obama.

Juneau City and Borough:


The state capital of Juneau is a Democratic stronghold.  Nevertheless, Romney squeaked by in four precincts in Juneau's suburban Mendenhall Valley.  Obama won the rest, breaking 80% in Juneau Number 2 near downtown.
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cinyc
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« Reply #20 on: January 06, 2014, 12:05:22 AM »

Here's the 2012 AK-AL House election by precinct.  Again, this is of the election-day vote only.  Young (R) beat Cissna (D) 64%-29% overall, and 65%-27% on election day.

The yellow lines are the Borough/Census Area Boundaries.  The grey lines are precinct boundaries:

Statewide:


Young won almost everywhere, including bush Alaska, except in the traditional Democratic strongholds like Juneau, Talkeetna and Denali National Park.

Anchorage Inset:


Some precincts in and around Downtown Anchorage were one of the few areas Young lost.
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Vosem
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« Reply #21 on: January 06, 2014, 12:56:55 AM »

The one precinct Romney lost is Talkeetna, a quirky town that is basecamp for treks to Mount Everest.

That's a remarkable geographic feat Wink

Great maps, though. As I understand it, the northern parts of the state went McCain>>Obama, but they still vote Republican at the local/statewide level?
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cinyc
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« Reply #22 on: January 06, 2014, 03:14:10 AM »

The one precinct Romney lost is Talkeetna, a quirky town that is basecamp for treks to Mount Everest.

That's a remarkable geographic feat Wink

Whoops!  Yes, that would be quite a feat.  It should have said Mount McKinley/Denali.

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HD 40, the northernmost state house district, has a Democratic state house rep and voted narrowly for the Democrats in the 2010 gubernatorial race.  HD40 is where the oil is, but the people don't live near the oil.  Over half the registered voters in HD40 live in the borough seats of Barrow (North Slope Borough) and Kotzebue (Northwest Arctic Borough).  The rest live in small settlements in the bush.
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Vosem
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« Reply #23 on: January 06, 2014, 02:40:07 PM »

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HD 40, the northernmost state house district, has a Democratic state house rep and voted narrowly for the Democrats in the 2010 gubernatorial race.  HD40 is where the oil is, but the people don't live near the oil.  Over half the registered voters in HD40 live in the borough seats of Barrow (North Slope Borough) and Kotzebue (Northwest Arctic Borough).  The rest live in small settlements in the bush.

Who was it that swung McCain>>Obama then? As I understand it, most of the Alaska Panhandle (places like Sitka) didn't change significantly between 2008 and 2012. Alaska, for which it's difficult to find data and which isn't a competitive state, is a place where I could very well be grossly misinformed about the electoral geography.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #24 on: January 06, 2014, 02:57:57 PM »

The Natives did.

Just because they always voted for Democrats in the State House doesn't mean they voted for Democratic Presidents - or rather, doesn't mean they did so by margins at all comparable to the Lower 48.
Alaska Natives, Miami Cubans and California Vietnamese are Romney's lost triplets.
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