Critical swing states

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Margins are margin of victory. Swings require half of the margin's voters to change their minds.

2004:
Bush beats Kerry by 2.46% nationwide.
Critical state: Ohio, Bush wins by 2.11%

2000:
Gore beats Bush by 0.52% nationwide
Critical state: Florida, tie

1996:
Clinton beats Dole by 8.52% nationwide
Critical state: Pennsylvania, Clinton wins by 9.20%

1992:
Clinton beats Bush by 5.56% nationwide
Critical state: Wisconsin, Clinton wins by 4.35%

1988:
Bush beats Dukakis by 7.73% nationwide
Critical state: Michigan, Bush wins by 7.90%

1984:
Reagan beats Mondale by 18.22% nationwide
Critical state: Michigan, Reagan wins by 18.99%

1980:
Reagan beats Carter by 9.74% nationwide
Critical state: Illinois, Reagan wins by 7.93%

1976:
Carter beats Ford by 2.06% nationwide
Critical state: Wisconsin, Carter wins by 1.68%

1972:
Nixon beats McGovern by 23.15% nationwide
Critical state for throwing the election: Ohio, Nixon wins by 21.56%
Critical state for McGovern winning: Maine, Nixon wins by 22.98%

1968:
Nixon beats Humphrey by 0.70% (Wallace also wins states)
Critical state for throwing the election: Ohio, Nixon beats Humphrey by 2.28%
Critical state for Humphrey winning: Illinois, Nixon beats Humphrey by 2.92%

1964:
Johnson beats Goldwater by 22.58% nationwide
Critical state: Washington, Johnson wins by 24.59%

1960: Kennedy beats Nixon by 0.16% nationwide
Critical state for throwing the election: Missouri, Kennedy wins by 0.52%
Critical state for Nixon winning: New Jersey, Kennedy wins by 0.80%

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1956: Eisenhower beats Stevenson by 15.40% nationwide
Critical state: Florida, Eisenhower wins by 14.54%

1952: Eisenhower beats Stevenson by 10.85% nationwide
Critical state: Michigan, Eisenhower wins by 11.47%

1948: Truman beats Dewey by 4.48% nationwide (Thurmond also wins electoral votes)
Critical state for throwing the election: California, Truman wins by 0.44%
Critical state for Dewey winning: Illinois, Truman wins by 0.84%

1944: Roosevelt beats Dewey by 7.49% nationwide
Critical state: New York, Roosevelt wins by 5.01%

1940: Roosevelt beats Wilkie by 9.95%
Critical state: Pennsylvania, Roosevelt wins by 6.89%

1936: Roosevelt beats Landon by 24.25%
Critical state: Ohio, Roosevelt wins by 20.56%

1932: Roosevelt beats Hoover by 17.76%
Critical state: Iowa, Roosevelt wins by 17.71%

1928: Hoover beats Smith by 17.42% nationwide
Critical state: Illinois, Hoover wins by 14.65%

1924 is complicated to analyize.

[skybridge]

Like there were critical states in 1984, 1972, 1964 or 1936...

[Notre Dame rules!]

What is the meaning of all of this?  Michigan was critical in '84?  To whom?

[skybridge]

And why is 1924 so complicated to analyze?

[7,052,770]

What is the meaning of all of this?  Michigan was critical in '84?  To whom?

If Mondale could've won Michigan, he presumably would've won enough other states to win the whole thing, is what I think he's saying.

[Silent Hunter]

Interesting. Could you go back further?

[dazzleman]

Interesting analysis.

[muon2]

The most interesting feature in the analysis so far is the location of the "critical swing states". With few exceptions (such as FL 2000) they are all states that border the Great Lakes.

I've previously discussed J. Garreau's Nine Nations of North America as a model for regions in the US. Using that hypothesis, then the Foundry, with parts from WI, IL, IN, MI, OH, WV, PA, NY, NJ, MD and DE is and remains the critical swing region.

[Joe Republic]

Good work.