Canadian by-elections, 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Peterborough is now vacant. Guess that will be held sometime this spring unless there's an early election.

[DL]

Peterborough is now vacant. Guess that will be held sometime this spring unless there's an early election.

Not necessarily, harper could wait six months until May and then call the byelection for Oct. 19 (the supposed date of the next federal election)

[King of Kensington]

Whitby will be a good testing ground for income splitting.  If it doesn't fly in Whitby, it's hard to think of ridings where it would.

Of course a "Christine Elliott 2014" type result will not bode well for the Tories. 

[adma]

Of course a "Christine Elliott 2014" type result will not bode well for the Tories. 

More like: to be reduced to pre-Orange-Crush 15%-or-less "normal" third-place levels will not bode well for the NDP, esp. given how the ONDP did about ten points better (albeit still third)vs Elliott in '14...

[King of Kensington]

The NDP isn't putting much of an effort in Whitby I don't think - of course they want to look strong enough to be in contention (that's why Mulcair is showing up there etc.) but not too strong, otherwise they can't fall back on the excuse that it's a by-election in a no-hope riding.

[DL]

Keep in mind that about one third of the current riding of Whitby-Oshawa is in the city of Oshawa and after redistribution most of that gets folded into the riding of Oshawa in exchange for Oshawa ceding some of the more outlying northern parts of Oshawa to the riding of Durham. I have heard that Trish McAuliffe the NDP candidate in Whitby-Oshawa is likely to run in Oshawa next year (and Oshawa went NDP by 8,000 votes provincially) - so in the byelection the NDP strategy is probably for her to concentrate very heavily on the part of Whitby-Oshawa that will become part of Oshawa rising in 2015 so she can boost her name recognition there and go for the kill when its all part of Oshawa.

[adma]

If that's the case, it'd still make more sense to gun for the 23% that Ryan Kelly got provincially than to settle for 15%...

[DL]

No one "settles" for a particular number of votes, you try to get as many votes as you can. But in the absence of unlimited resources it makes sense to target the part of the riding that is the most promising

[Hatman 🍁]

Keep in mind that about one third of the current riding of Whitby-Oshawa is in the city of Oshawa and after redistribution most of that gets folded into the riding of Oshawa in exchange for Oshawa ceding some of the more outlying northern parts of Oshawa to the riding of Durham. I have heard that Trish McAuliffe the NDP candidate in Whitby-Oshawa is likely to run in Oshawa next year (and Oshawa went NDP by 8,000 votes provincially) - so in the byelection the NDP strategy is probably for her to concentrate very heavily on the part of Whitby-Oshawa that will become part of Oshawa rising in 2015 so she can boost her name recognition there and go for the kill when its all part of Oshawa.

That's a good plan. We now know that Oshawa is a winnable riding, especially with the new boundaries.

[Hatman 🍁]

Lloydminster will be having a by-election Thursday. Here's the profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/provincial-by-election-in-lloydminster.html

Got it out of the way due to the many electoral events coming up on Saturday and next Monday.

[emcee0]

I was in Whitby campaigning for Celina this weekend, and was blown away by the amount of support she seems to have there. There were literally Liberal signs for her at almost every corner. Can't wait to see how this race turns out.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sask Party easily winning in Lloydminster. My theory of a Liberal resurgence has fizzled, they are behind the dormant PC Party candidate so far!

[MaxQue]

Sask Party easily winning in Lloydminster. My theory of a Liberal resurgence has fizzled, they are behind the dormant PC Party candidate so far!

With 31/45, it's SP 73, NDP 19, PC 3, Lib 3, Grn 2.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals ended up in third, but not much more than the Tories. Results very similar to 2011:

SP: 64.05 (-2.4%)
NDP: 28.93 (-0.2%)
Lib: 2.76
PC: 2.51
Grn: 1.75 (-2.7%)

[King of Kensington]

Tight race in Whitby

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/11/14/whitbyoshawa_byelection_a_dead_heat_poll_suggests.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Profile of Saint John East: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/saint-john-east-new-brunswick.html

[RogueBeaver]

Final Forum in Whitby: 45/42/10 Grit. LOL. Their spin in G&M and on QP today was that they expect to lose.

[cp]

Any info on when we can expect results and where they will be published (aside from on here in nearly-real-time)?

[DC Al Fine]

Results will be posted here. Detailed stuff like poll-by-poll maps usually takes months

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile's of Yellowhead and Whitby-Oshawa: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/federal-by-elections-in-yellowhead-and.html

[the506]

Glen Savoie elected easily in Saint John East. Quitting after a week will do that to you.

Savoie: 2225 (44%)
Rinehart: 1398 (28%)
Cardy: 1099 (22%)
Murphy: 262 (5%)
Watson: 38 (1%)

[Hatman 🍁]

OK, Cardy's last kick at the can was a flop. He can go away now

% change:

PC: +7.4
Lib: -9.2
NDP: +3.4
Grn: -0.4
PANB: -1.2

[Hatman 🍁]

1/284 polls in Yellowhead:

Conservative   32
Liberal   3
Libertarian   2
NDP-New Democratic Party   1
Independent   1

[Hatman 🍁]

1/280 in Whitby-Oshawa

NDP-New Democratic Party   11
Conservative   11
Liberal   9
Green Party   1

11 polls in Yellowhead

Conservative   220
Liberal   58
NDP-New Democratic Party   41
Independent   19
Libertarian   15

[RogueBeaver]

14/280 in Yellowhead: 905 CPC, 169 LPC, 91 NDP.

15/280 in Whitby: 607 LPC, 562 LPC, 112 NDP.