Canadian by-elections, 2014

[politicallefty]

I'm surprised no one has made hay of the fact the Liberals have had three fools-gold byelections in the Prairie Provinces this parliament, Calgary Centre, Brandon-Souris, and now Fort MacMurray Athabasca

I was wondering about the same thing. Those are all big Conservative strongholds. On paper, I could see how Calgary Centre could be a potential target under the right circumstances. However, the others don't seem to have any business being close. I think the fact they're even close is rather amazing. From what I've read, the last time anything in Alberta outside of Edmonton went Liberal was 1968. Fort McMurray-Athabasca and its predecessor have always gone right-wing and Brandon-Souris only voted Liberal under the perfect storm of 1993.

Is it just the nature of a by-election that has been making these close (and thus, why the Liberals have been targeting them, to the extent of sending Justin Trudeau out to rural Alberta)? It seems to me that even if any of those ridings went Liberal, they wouldn't survive the general election (even if the Liberals were to maintain their relatively good poll numbers in the Prairie Provinces).

[Hatman 🍁]

Indeed; Liberal gains out west will be constrained to large urban centres, be they Edmonton, Calgary or Winnipeg.

[politicallefty]

Indeed; Liberal gains out west will be constrained to large urban centres, be they Edmonton, Calgary or Winnipeg.

Based on the new ridings for the next general election, what are the best targets in Edmonton and Calgary? If the Tory vote margin can be held down in Alberta, it seems like there could be some potential seat gains for the other parties. It seems like a shame that the Liberals couldn't win Calgary Centre in a by-election. That could've been their breakthrough in that area. (As I said above, it hasn't happened since 1968.)

Right now, it doesn't seem like the NDP will reach its 2011 results next year, but they do seem to have a nice foothold in Edmonton-Strathcona. Was that riding made better or worse with redistribution? And what are their potential targets in Edmonton (with the assumption that the NDP cannot currently compete in Calgary, let alone rural Alberta)?

I know a lot of the consensus was that the Conservatives will be taking everything except Edmonton-Strathcona, but the Liberals and NDP would be stupid to let that happen without very serious competition.

(I hope I'm not going too off-topic here.)

[RogueBeaver]

It would've been as much of a breakthrough as the 2009 Tory win in Riviere-de-Loup or Doug Holyday in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

[politicallefty]

To be fair, I think Quebec politics are especially unique. With Etobicoke-Lakeshore, it seems like that was a time when the PCs were running quite strong in the province, ahead of the Liberals.

I think it's widely accepted that the NDP win in Outremont was a breakthrough, and one that inevitably allowed them to sweep away the Bloc and take the vast majority of seats in the province.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think it's widely accepted that the NDP win in Outremont was a breakthrough, and one that inevitably allowed them to sweep away the Bloc and take the vast majority of seats in the province.

The NDP's landslide in Quebec happened the election after the first election after the Outremont by-election. Doubtless it was important in building up the party's credibility in the province, but you take things too far.

[RogueBeaver]

Indeed. In 2007 it was seen as Mulcair's strength and a very weak Liberal nominee.

[politicallefty]

Doubtless it was important in building up the party's credibility in the province, but you take things too far.

That really wasn't my intent at all. I was merely asking about the possibility of the Liberals breaking into the Conservative fortress that is Alberta. The 2008 NDP victory in Edmonton-Strathcona did not yield any further gains for the party in 2011 (other than solidifying that seat). All I said was that a Liberal win in Calgary Centre could have been a potential breakthrough for the party. I wouldn't even necessarily say the Liberals could do better than that, considering that Harper is leading the Conservative Party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They had some seats in the province from 1993 until 2006.

[Hatman 🍁]

They had some seats in the province from 1993 until 2006.

Not outside Edmonton.

Indeed. In 2007 it was seen as Mulcair's strength and a very weak Liberal nominee.

I don't think think the orange wave would've happened if Mulcair hadn't won in 2007. Sure, it didn't happen in the following election, but it was huge. It put the NDP on the map in Quebec. Remember, as recently as 2004, the NDP was lucky to get over 10% of the vote in any riding - and in 1993 they were finishing behind the Natural Law Party in many ridings.

Indeed; Liberal gains out west will be constrained to large urban centres, be they Edmonton, Calgary or Winnipeg.

Based on the new ridings for the next general election, what are the best targets in Edmonton and Calgary?

In Edmonton, I believe the NDP is targeting Edmonton Griesbach (essentially Edmonton East). Both the NDP and Liberals have a shot at Edmonton Centre. The Liberals can probably win any riding in Edmonton, really - except Stratchcona, Griesbach and the new rural-urban hybrid riding of Edmonton-Wetaskiwin or the suburban/exurban/rural Sturgeon River.


Liberal targets in Edmonton (results in 2011):
Edmonton Centre - 23.7%
Edmonton Riverbend - 14.5%
Edmonton West -12.5%
Edmonton Mill Woods - 11.7%
St. Albert-Edmonton - 10.8%
Edmonton Manning - 9.1%
Edmonton Griesbach - 6.6%
Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan - 6.5%
Edmonton-Wetaskiwin - 5.7%
Edmonton-Sturgeon River - 5.5%
Edmonton Strathcona - 2.9%

In Calgary, I think the Liberals have a decent shot at Calgary Centre, Calgary Skyview and Calgary Confederation.

Targets:
Calgary Skyview - 28.6%
Calgary Centre - 19.1%
Calgary Confederation - 17.6%
Calgary Forest Lawn - 17.5%
Calgary Signal Hill - 15.4%
Calgary Rocky Ridge - 12.7%
Calgary Nose Hill - 11.0%
Calgary Heritage - 7.5%
Calgary Shepard - 7.2%
Calgary Midnapore - 6.4%

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Not much difference. It went from 53.5% to 53.7% NDP.

NDP targets:

Edmonton Strathcona - 53.7%
Edmonton Griesbach - 37.5%
Edmonton Manning - 26.6%
Edmonton Centre - 25.8%
Edmonton Mill Woods - 25.4%
Edmonton Riverbend - 21.2%
St. Albert-Edmonton - 20.1%
Edmonton West - 19.5%
Edmonton-Wetaskiwin - 14.3%
Sturgeon River - 13.0%
Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan - 11.2%

[DC Al Fine]

Doubtless it was important in building up the party's credibility in the province, but you take things too far.

That really wasn't my intent at all. I was merely asking about the possibility of the Liberals breaking into the Conservative fortress that is Alberta. The 2008 NDP victory in Edmonton-Strathcona did not yield any further gains for the party in 2011 (other than solidifying that seat). All I said was that a Liberal win in Calgary Centre could have been a potential breakthrough for the party. I wouldn't even necessarily say the Liberals could do better than that, considering that Harper is leading the Conservative Party.

I ran the 308's most recent averages for Alberta (54.5-22.8-13.6-6.9) in my proportional swing projection model.

The Liberals got four seats, and the NDP got one*. Two of the Liberal seats were squeakers and there doesn't seem to be much more room for growth for them. I think it's safe to say that the Liberals will win a seat in Calgary and a seat in Edmonton, but anything more than a beachhead would require substantial gains in the polls.

*Potential Liberal pickups from most to least likely by my model.
1) Calgary Skyview
2) Edmonton Centre
3) Calgary Centre
4) Calgary Confederation
5) Calgary Forest Lawn
6) Edmonton Riverbend
7) Calgary Signal Hill

FTR: The best non Cgy/Edm Liberal result under my model is a 22% loss in Lethbridge

[adma]

With Etobicoke-Lakeshore, it seems like that was a time when the PCs were running quite strong in the province, ahead of the Liberals.

I don't think it was that per se--the PCs around then were a pretty lukewarm kind of "quite strong"--so much as Doug Holyday being a "Adam Vaughan game-changer" kind of candidate; without him, the Tories would have done about as well as Holyday did vs Milczyn in the *general* election.

[Njall]

In Calgary, I'd be quite confident in saying that the Liberals will will Calgary Skyview; their strong (for Alberta) result in 2011 and excellent candidate in Darshan Kang will make for a good race.  In Calgary Centre and Calgary Confederation, I could see the Conservative candidates losing if consensus progressive candidates emerge in both ridings.  In each riding, the CPC got roughly 55% of the vote, but the other 45% was a 3-way split, with each opposition party receiving between 10% and 20%.  Matt Grant is shaping up to be a pretty good Liberal candidate in Confederation. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Much counting of chickens before they hatch here. Not necessarily a good idea.

[Hatman 🍁]

Much counting of chickens before they hatch here. Not necessarily a good idea.

Jesus, Al. This forum wouldn't exist if it wasn't for wild political speculation over a year before an election day.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True enough, but tradition dictates the necessary and mildly corrective presence of some miserable spoilsport with a jug of cold water...

[politicallefty]

Very interesting posts from above. Obviously, everything will depend on how strong the the parties run next year. If the Conservatives stay in the low-to-mid 50s (or even below 50%), serious opportunities will open up for the Liberals and NDP.

From what I can tell, the downtown ridings in Calgary are Calgary Confederation and Calgary Centre (the former a more urban version of Calgary Centre-North that now contains the University of Calgary, while the latter has basically contracted). Now, I've seen the detailed map of results from 2011. What makes Calgary Skyview (which I think is a pretty cool name, as the successor of Calgary Northeast) such a top Liberal target? That did seem to be their best riding in Alberta and they appear to have a strong candidate, but generally anything outside of core urban areas have been toxic to the Liberals and NDP.

It looks like the Liberals (and NDP, to a somewhat lesser extent) have a lot to like from the way the new seats have been drawn in Edmonton and Calgary. The real challenge for the Liberals in Calgary seems to be consolidating a very divided vote on the left.

[Hash]

Very interesting posts from above. Obviously, everything will depend on how strong the the parties run next year. If the Conservatives stay in the low-to-mid 50s (or even below 50%), serious opportunities will open up for the Liberals and NDP.

From what I can tell, the downtown ridings in Calgary are Calgary Confederation and Calgary Centre (the former a more urban version of Calgary Centre-North that now contains the University of Calgary, while the latter has basically contracted). Now, I've seen the detailed map of results from 2011. What makes Calgary Skyview (which I think is a pretty cool name, as the successor of Calgary Northeast) such a top Liberal target? That did seem to be their best riding in Alberta and they appear to have a strong candidate, but generally anything outside of core urban areas have been toxic to the Liberals and NDP.

It looks like the Liberals (and NDP, to a somewhat lesser extent) have a lot to like from the way the new seats have been drawn in Edmonton and Calgary. The real challenge for the Liberals in Calgary seems to be consolidating a very divided vote on the left.

Calgary Skyview is a growing suburban (albeit not a particularly affluent one for Calgary suburbia - it's a fairly industrial zone in parts near the airport) majority-minority riding (59.6% non-white in 2011 according to the NHS, it was just below 50% in 2006), with an especially large South Asian (Punjabi) population (about a fifth of the total population) - which makes it, afaik, the most minority-heavy riding in Alberta. In 2011, the Liberals performed best in the new subdivisions, which also overlap with the parts of the riding with the largest Punjabi-speaking population. Of course, given the unusually strong Liberal result in 2011, I presume that there may have been a local factor at play.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you want to know where the Liberals have a chance in Alberta, you can always peruse past provincial election maps. Calgary-McCall is the Liberal provincial riding, and has been trending Liberal for quite some time. They finally won it for the first time in 2008.

[Hatman 🍁]

According to Alice Funke, who got a leak of the poll by poll results, the Liberals won the Fort McMurray part of Fort McMurray-Athabasca.

Here is a map she made:

[Njall]

Not surprising; the Liberal campaign seemed to be pretty focused there, and Yurdiga wasn't from Fort McMurray.  Does it say anywhere what the results were from the part of the riding that will make up Fort McMurray--Cold Lake in 2015?

[Hatman 🍁]

Not surprising; the Liberal campaign seemed to be pretty focused there, and Yurdiga wasn't from Fort McMurray.  Does it say anywhere what the results were from the part of the riding that will make up Fort McMurray--Cold Lake in 2015?

That area is pretty Conservative, meaning the new riding would've gone Conservative if you add the areas together.

Alice has another map:



Similar results as in the provincial election. Also note that Mike Layton represents Ward 19 (western half) while Vaughan represented Ward 20 (eastern half).

[Hatman 🍁]

By-election in St. George's-Stephenville East has been set for August 26.

[MaxQue]

A by-election was called in the provincial riding of Lévis, in Quebec City southern suburbs. Christian Dubé, CAQ spokesman for finances, resigned to become executive vice-president for Quebec of the Caisse de dépot et placement du Québec (Quebec Deposit and Investment Fund).

2014 results:

Christian Dubé (CAQ) 14131 votes (40.49%)
Simon Turmel (PLQ) 12188 votes (34.93%)
Sylvie Girard (PQ) 5797 votes (16.61%)
Yv Bonnier Viger (QS) 2147 votes (6.15%)
Sébastien Roy (Conservative) 274 votes (0.79%)
Nicolas Belley (Option Nationale) 252 votes (0.72%)
Paul Biron (Parti unité nationale) 107 votes (0.31%)

Conservative is a small party, more libertarian than conservative.
Option are left-wing and hardline independantists.
Parti unité nationale, formely the Christian-Democrat Party was a Catholic fundamentalist party, his goal being to put the social goals of the Catholic Church into law. They since moved away from that, took a name looking like Union Nationale and now have a social conservatism and regional development goal.

[DC Al Fine]

Judging from the polls, looks like a CAQ hold.