Will China ever invade Taiwan?

[WMS]

I have a copy of a February 1938 issue of NGM in which there's a nice story on Nanjing, the former capital of China.  I purchased it for the photos and descriptions because my wife is from Nanjing, and most of her extended family live there.  I read it in the frame of mind of, say, a 1938 New Yorker, with the economy of the world picking up steam, no big wars to worry about other than some far-off conflict raging between Japan and China, and the unrelated potential for a little rift between England and Germany.  I noted that there were many in my country whose economic interests in Nanjing and elsewhere in china were hampered by Japan's occupation, and that many in my country were clamoring for sanctions against Japan and its growing appetite for oil.  Nanjing was a beautiful, free market place.  Clothing fashions, nice streets and modern amenities.  My wife's mother, who would later recieve as a gift a copy of the same issue, would look in amazement and remembrance of her mother's stories of what a beautiful place, full of hope for the future, that china was, if only it could throw off the Japanese aggressors.  Of course, the article was prepared prior to December 1937, and Nanjing had yet to fall to the Imperial Army of Japan, and the Rape of Nanjing had not yet occurred.  And hard times were a'comin.  And even harder times still would come in the late 60s and early 70s.  Still, at that moment in history Nanjing was a beautiful, open, capitalistic free market.  And its nationalistic government would have no way of predicting its exile to a large tropical island off the coast of Asia.  Hindsight is 20/20, and the Chinese I know who are willing to talk about it recognize the dual mistakes of Communism and the Cultural Revolution.  No doubt, it's easy for someone to talk in theory about a government swallowing its pride.  It's much harder in practice for a government to do that.

Geez, this thread got complicated...

Cool story. And the Chinese Communists have, de facto, already stopped pretending that they're real communists any more. They're closer to fascists, actually. But with them, 'anything for power' is their real credo.

[WMS]

The fact is that the current wealth on Taiwan Province was due mainly because of the policies of Chiang Kai-Shek and the KMT regime.  Chiang's son Chiang Jin-Guo took over in 1975 and was in charge until 1988 followed by KMT leader Lee Deng-Hui.  Both KMT leaders had policies that were less successful on the long run.  The failure to push forward with a second land reform in 1992 made for a much worse distribution of income.  The 1950-3 land reform under Chiang Kai-Shek's regime paved the way for economic success. 

Jaichind, Part I:

Hmm? Didn't Taiwan only become an Asian tiger in the late 1980's? And I hadn't heard about an attempted 1992 land reform, or why -  details? But yes, I have heard of the first land reform, and of how it both gave the peasants land and, with the money used to buy off the landlords being invested into businesses, helped the industrial and service sector develop as well - it provided winners all around. However, it wouldn't have been possible without U.S. aid (read: money) since it was rather expensive. It's the best land reform policy out there, I think, but due to its large expense it's hard to duplicate in other countries.

[WMS]

I believe the current situation is the following.  The USA will eventually sell out the Taipei regime to the PRC at some future date.  The alternative to that would be for the USA to ensure the long term seperation of Taiwan Province from the rest of China.  This means that the USA will be faced with another Cold War where the PRC will spend the next 50 years to overturn the USA world order.  A war the USA might very well lose.

Much more likely is the USA will sell out the Taipei regime, for a high price.  The USA is like a farmer holding a cage with a chicken (aka Taiwan Province) haggleing with a store owner (PRC) for a right price to sell the chicken.  In the meantime, the farmer and store owner would want to make sure that the chicken does not escape from the cage (declare independence.)  The farmer would want to make sure that the store owner does not take the chicken by force for free (opposing PRC attack on Taiwan Province and provinding the Taipei regime with some weapons.)  The chicken senses its doom and wants to work for its escape by tricking the farmer and store owners to come to blows as well as get tools to break the lock on the cage (various attempts to provoke an armed conflice betwen PRC and USA plus trying to get offensive weapons.)  Of course both the farmer and store owner will prevent this as the farmer would be deprived of his payoff (various strategic concessions by PRC that it might be willing to part with at this stage) and of course the store owner will be deprived of the chicken (reunification.) 

For me the correctly strategy for the Taipei regime would be to work out a deal directly with the PRC regime ASAP.  One day the PRC might just pay the price the USA is asking for if it sees too much risk in taking care of this issue on its own without the USA.

Jaichind, Part II:
Selling out an ally is a rather distasteful business, and if I had any say in it I'd impeach the Americans who would do so. Now if Taiwan wanted to rejoin China, but pretended not to in order to gain benefits from China, then I could see that happening. There's another possibility as well: what if the U.S. could manage to remove the current regime and get a more democratic one in? I would see reunification as much more likely in that event. While I don't see the U.S. pulling such a coup (pun intended ) right now, given the increasing internal instability inside China...well, give it a few years. My Stratfor source believes that an eventual return to de facto warlord rule is in the future, although not until after 2010. Talk about a situation easy to exploit.

As for the PRC's Cold War against the U.S. - what, you're telling me that hasn't happened already? The PRC does nothing but try to undermine the U.S. at every opportunity, and consorts with every U.S. enemy that'll let them. And they've been doing that at least since the end of the Cold War. Why do you think the European Union is in such a rush to sell advanced weaponry to the PRC? When Nixon/Kissinger went to China, I believe Kissinger had China's goals written down..."force the U.S. out of Asia" was already a top one, even then. I say, let's face reality: China is going to be the main enemy of the U.S. once the Islamists are under control.

[angus]

"strategic competitor"   

[WMS]

"strategic competitor"   

Well said.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

why is jaichind talking about this "regime" on Taiwan? It's been free and democratic for over a decade now. And is he saying reunification with the Butchers of Beijing would be a good thing?

[WMS]

why is jaichind talking about this "regime" on Taiwan? It's been free and democratic for over a decade now. And is he saying reunification with the Butchers of Beijing would be a good thing?

I think he's a hardcore Chinese nationalist, which overrides his Libertarian nature and makes him support the Chinese fascists.

Eh, that's as good of a guess as anything else.

[Akno21]

How does Russia come into this? They have a boatload of weapons, and in a Far East war, would they get involved?

[angus]

between them, they might be able to come up with a nickel.  also, if you're a russian autocrat, which devil do you want to sell out to?  arch enemy 1 or arch enemy 2.

you sit back and hope the US and China blow each other up.

[WMS]

How does Russia come into this? They have a boatload of weapons, and in a Far East war, would they get involved?

I was going to refer you to the part of my post where I called them the Ultimate Wild Card, but I like angus' answer better.

[The Duke]

How does Russia come into this? They have a boatload of weapons, and in a Far East war, would they get involved?

China is a great customer for Russia right now, in both hydrocarbons and weapons.

[2952-0-0]

How does Russia come into this? They have a boatload of weapons, and in a Far East war, would they get involved?

China is a great customer for Russia right now, in both hydrocarbons and weapons.

They will also have joint military training operations later this year.

[ATFFL]

No nation will ever dump all its dollars.  no nation would ever put itself in a position where it cannot buy oil on the open market.

Oil will soon be denominated in Euros. 

In the above argument between Al and Goldie, I would have to agree with Al.  Those who rule China couldn't care less about the opinion of the outside world or of a mere 100 million of their subjects.  Its a cultural thing, and they have a fairly awful culture.  Not the worst in the world, by any means, but a fairly bad one.  And halitosis.  I could barely stand to go indoors when I visited Singapore!

Oil switching to Euros will not happen until the EU shows it is united and not in danger of falling apart.  The current build of the EU makes that impossible.  To get a new COnstitution they need the whole membership to approve it, and that ain't happening.  It might even fail in France.

Also, Euros cannot replace the greenback until they stop translating the value of member curruncies to Euros by comparing both to dollars. 

As for the fight between Al and Goldie, I have to disagree.  THey both proved they cannot win a pissing match with a real man.  I give the edge to AuH2O solely for the coal fetish line, which gave me a good laugh.

[phk]

The Chinese should go back to the teachings of Mao Zedong.

[DanielX]

The Chinese should go back to the teachings of Mao Zedong.

Ah, yes, killing 65 million peasants is such a great way to run an economy... (/sarcasm).

[jaichind]

Latest poll on Taiwan Province shows only 49% will be willing to fight in the event of a Mainland invasion.  For college students, only 35% are willing to fight.  Main reason cited for unwillingness to fight is the basic fact that Taiwan cannot win in such a conflict so why bother. 

[opebo]

No nation will ever dump all its dollars.  no nation would ever put itself in a position where it cannot buy oil on the open market.

Oil will soon be denominated in Euros. 

In the above argument between Al and Goldie, I would have to agree with Al.  Those who rule China couldn't care less about the opinion of the outside world or of a mere 100 million of their subjects.  Its a cultural thing, and they have a fairly awful culture.  Not the worst in the world, by any means, but a fairly bad one.  And halitosis.  I could barely stand to go indoors when I visited Singapore!

Oil switching to Euros will not happen until the EU shows it is united and not in danger of falling apart.  The current build of the EU makes that impossible.  To get a new COnstitution they need the whole membership to approve it, and that ain't happening.  It might even fail in France.

Also, Euros cannot replace the greenback until they stop translating the value of member curruncies to Euros by comparing both to dollars.

Even considering these minor peccadilloes, the EU is resoundingly better run than the United States, from an economic perspective.

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Real Man?  What are you talking about?  But the coal fetish line was good.  I like coal a lot myself though.

[opebo]

Latest poll on Taiwan Province shows only 49% will be willing to fight in the event of a Mainland invasion.  For college students, only 35% are willing to fight.  Main reason cited for unwillingness to fight is the basic fact that Taiwan cannot win in such a conflict so why bother. 

I think those college students assume they'll all be able to escape to Canada.

[AuH2O]

Why would Taiwanese people think they could reach Canada? What are they going to do, swim?

[opebo]

Why would Taiwanese people think they could reach Canada? What are they going to do, swim?

Talking about emmigration.

[jaichind]

I stand by my previous words, "Taipei regime."  In the end, the current regime on Taipei is no better than that of the Mainland in terms of "press freedom." 

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Taiwan bans Chinese reporters
 
11.04.05

 
Taiwan has ordered mainland Chinese reporters to leave as retaliation against China’s decision to pass a new law authorising an attack on Taiwan if it pushes for formal independence, an official said.

Reporters from China’s official People’s Daily and the Xinhua News Agency have been told to leave because they have failed to accurately report on Taiwan, said Taiwan’s top policymaker on China.

"We’ve encouraged cultural exchanges to help the mainland understand Taiwan," said Joseph Wu, chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council. "But if these exchanges fail to foster understandings, we would have to come up with more effective measures."

Wu said Taiwan, however, may consider allowing reporters from some unofficial Chinese media. Most Chinese media is state-run, and Wu did not elaborate.