Jim Matheson retiring

[LeBron]

I don't know about the governor's race yet. I'll have to look into that. But running for either Senate race would be very difficult. I think now, a democrat would have to get ~65% of the vote in Salt Lake County in order to have a chance. Does anybody see how that lines up?

And yes, Matheson is a traitor to the democrats. But honestly I'm very glad he did this. It really bothered me that a the most Romney state last year by far (73%) had a democrat in its congressional delegation. When a state like Kansas (60%) had all republicans. Utah really deserves to have all republicans, just like Massachusetts deserves to have all democrats.

I disagree that the difference between Kansas and Utah percents means anything.  The main reason Republicans in Utah performed so much better in 2012 was because Mitt Romney was running.  In 2008, McCain got 62% in Utah.  Besides, the Salt Lake area really deserves a democratic or centrist leaning independent.  They keep getting screwed so badly by state Republicans each time the districts are redrawn.

Anyway, I wish Matheson and his family the best.  Maybe we'll be talking about him again in a couple years.

As a side note: I read in article in the Deseret News that suggested Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams.  Do you guys think he has any chance of making it close?

And that's not just the way with Utah or Kansas either. If you look at the balance of power in Ohio which is supposed to be a swing state, there's only 4 Democrats which is only 25% of Ohio's U.S. House delegation and Ohio has a lot higher voter registration of Democratic voters than that. Obama carried Ohio with about 50% of the vote in 2012 so Ohio should have 8 Democratic Reps. to adhere to proportional representation, but because of Republicans, we don't. Even from this Guardian article it shows Florida has about 450,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans as of October 2012, yet what's their House delegation? 10 Democrats and 17 Republicans.

The point is, if we had independent drawn lines, then we wouldn't have had to put with Matheson's insane voting record or worrying that he would lose. It wouldn't just favor Democrats either. Democrats can get a seat out of Utah, Arkansas, two out of Louisiana, and about seven out of Virginia while Republicans could get one out of Connecticut, a few out of Massachusetts, and a few more out of New York or Illinois. It goes both ways, EG.

About your question though, it doesn't seem like McAdams would stand a chance unfortunately. He looks to be pro-gay rights and that already gives him as low of a chance of winning as Anderson does. So unless Utah Democrats find a really strong moderate pretty quick, it will fall to Republicans.

[Zioneer]

Ben McAdams is a fiscal moderate, and won 55% in the County, so he could be more formidable than you'd think. He also has the strongest campaign staff besides Matheson himself. I think he wants to go for Governor in 2016 (if Matheson doesn't) and wants to leave a legacy in the County Mayor's office though, so I don't think he'll run. My money is on his immediate predecessor, Peter Corroon.

As a side note, Matheson himself only got 27% of the vote in Utah County (home of Provo and BYU), and only 34% in sparsely populated Juab County and 30% in equally sparse Sanpete County in 2012, so a Democratic candidate really doesn't need that part of the district. They really need Salt Lake County.

[Zioneer]

By the way, if anyone's a Daily Kos user, I posted an overview about UT-04 candidates on both sides.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

The Salt Lake Tribune asked Matheson whether he's considering running for Senate shortly after he announced his plans not to run for reelection.

"Yes, sir," Matheson quickly told the Utah newspaper.

[Zioneer]

The Salt Lake Tribune asked Matheson whether he's considering running for Senate shortly after he announced his plans not to run for reelection.

"Yes, sir," Matheson quickly told the Utah newspaper.

Technically, he said this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Badger]

Matheson and McIntyre both supported the government shutdown, did they not?

Yes. Matheson especially has been voting with the Republicans a lot this year, which I presume got tiring after a while.

Honestly, I hate Matheson for being ultra-conservative when I feel a correctly-messaged centrist could win, but I'm sad he's going, since the Utah Dems have no one else, except perhaps his brother Scott and Peter Corroon. Also, he brought in a lot of national Dem spending, which bolstered local Dems a bit.

I'm actually really worried for the Utah Dems right now.

If you think Matheson is "an ultra-conservative", just wait for Mia Love to show you what that truly means.....

Oh, I'm not disputing that Mia Love will be an ultra-conservative in Congress, and I don't think a Bernie Sanders type would win in Utah. I just think that on a couple of issues, Matheson could've been a bit more lefty/moderate, and could've still won (or even picked up a couple of votes). I mean, I voted for the guy, would vote for him for Congress again, and will vote for him when he likely goes for governor, but it doesn't mean I have to respect his votes.

You've said this repeatedly, Zioneer, and frankly I think you and other UT liberals were so used to Matheson winning that you just assumed he always would somehow, and accordingly could've voted, if not Bernie Sanders-style, at least considerably more liberally than he did. But that is belied by the fact his intensely conservative district usually re-elected him by only the narrowest of margins. Several of his races litterally could've been lost by one more vote on even a minor issue that broke the camel's back for a few hundred of his conservative supporters.

You may not appreciate it now, but I think it's clear Jim Matheson voted about as absolutely left-wing as anyone representing UT-4 EVER could've done and still survive.

[Zioneer]

Matheson and McIntyre both supported the government shutdown, did they not?

Yes. Matheson especially has been voting with the Republicans a lot this year, which I presume got tiring after a while.

Honestly, I hate Matheson for being ultra-conservative when I feel a correctly-messaged centrist could win, but I'm sad he's going, since the Utah Dems have no one else, except perhaps his brother Scott and Peter Corroon. Also, he brought in a lot of national Dem spending, which bolstered local Dems a bit.

I'm actually really worried for the Utah Dems right now.

If you think Matheson is "an ultra-conservative", just wait for Mia Love to show you what that truly means.....

Oh, I'm not disputing that Mia Love will be an ultra-conservative in Congress, and I don't think a Bernie Sanders type would win in Utah. I just think that on a couple of issues, Matheson could've been a bit more lefty/moderate, and could've still won (or even picked up a couple of votes). I mean, I voted for the guy, would vote for him for Congress again, and will vote for him when he likely goes for governor, but it doesn't mean I have to respect his votes.

You've said this repeatedly, Zioneer, and frankly I think you and other UT liberals were so used to Matheson winning that you just assumed he always would somehow, and accordingly could've voted, if not Bernie Sanders-style, at least considerably more liberally than he did. But that is belied by the fact his intensely conservative district usually re-elected him by only the narrowest of margins. Several of his races litterally could've been lost by one more vote on even a minor issue that broke the camel's back for a few hundred of his conservative supporters.

You may not appreciate it now, but I think it's clear Jim Matheson voted about as absolutely left-wing as anyone representing UT-4 EVER could've done and still survive.

Eh, I think there were a few minor issues that UT-04 residents don't care about that he could've voted more left-wing on without anyone noticing.

And yeah, his new gerrymandered district would kick him out for any important misstep, but he was entrenched in his old district.

And again, I do respect him for being more Teflon than Reagan, and would (and have) vote for him. It's really just me being dissatisfied with him, even though I know that there's only a couple of issues he could've voted my way on.

I suppose that if he had any other opponent other than Mia Love and if the name at the top of the ticket wasn't Romney, he probably would've won more easily, even with a gerrymandered district. But that's a moot point now. I just hope Matheson's brother or Peter Corroon steps in, they're the only ones who could keep this seat.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yikes. Not a fan of Matheson, but his voting record is not that bad for an R +14 district.

True, except it's R+16. Even though DINOs have a habit of not getting re-elected, or switching parties, there are still 9 "Democrats" with more conservative Progressive Punch ratings. What's their excuse? 2 of them are in even PVI districts in NY for crying out loud.

[pretzel1998]

A Republican pick up unless they really screw it up somehow...

R+1

[Zioneer]

A Republican pick up unless they really screw it up somehow...

R+1

Oh, they can. I mean, they screwed up in 2012 with Romney at the top of the ticket and Matheson facing a new district, after all.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A Republican pick up unless they really screw it up somehow...

R+1

Oh, they can. I mean, they screwed up in 2012 with Romney at the top of the ticket and Matheson facing a new district, after all.

It's really R+1.

[Zioneer]

A Republican pick up unless they really screw it up somehow...

R+1

Oh, they can. I mean, they screwed up in 2012 with Romney at the top of the ticket and Matheson facing a new district, after all.

It's really R+1.

I would dispute that if Scott Matheson or Peter Corroon get in and Mia Love is denied the GOP nomination, the Dems could win, but yeah, it's a long shot. Still possible for the GOP to mess up badly though.

[bedstuy]

Sad, because Mia Love strikes me as a hardcore dumb-dumb.  Maybe I'm wrong because I haven't paid that much attention.  But, she seems like the rare politician dumber than Sarah Palin. 

The Democrats should get Ken Jennings to run.  That would be an interesting contrast.

[LeBron]

Sad, because Mia Love strikes me as a hardcore dumb-dumb.  Maybe I'm wrong because I haven't paid that much attention.  But, she seems like the rare politician dumber than Sarah Palin. 

The Democrats should get Ken Jennings to run.  That would be an interesting contrast.

Does he even still live in Utah? I thought he moved to Washington. That would be awesome though and it could really test the intelligence of Utahns if they could pick a smart candidate, literally.

And while Mia Love is beyond awful, I do give her credit for supporting immigration reform because going against it when her own parents can't become legal U.S. citizens would make no sense. Although then again, that's the story of the GOP.

Now that I look back at Matheson's announcement, this could turn out to be good. There's no need wasting money on this district which I think could have fallen to Mia Love anyway in the right, low turnout environment, and should spend more time focusing on districts where Democrats actually have establishment candidates running instead of spending loads to try and keep McIntyre or Rahall in another 2 years. Personally, I wouldn't mind if national Democrats don't spend anything on the Bluedogs/New Dems. running.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Sad, because Mia Love strikes me as a hardcore dumb-dumb.  Maybe I'm wrong because I haven't paid that much attention.  But, she seems like the rare politician dumber than Sarah Palin. 

The Democrats should get Ken Jennings to run.  That would be an interesting contrast.

Does he even still live in Utah? I thought he moved to Washington. That would be awesome though and it could really test the intelligence of Utahns if they could pick a smart candidate, literally.

And while Mia Love is beyond awful, I do give her credit for supporting immigration reform because going against it when her own parents can't become legal U.S. citizens would make no sense. Although then again, that's the story of the GOP.

Now that I look back at Matheson's announcement, this could turn out to be good. There's no need wasting money on this district which I think could have fallen to Mia Love anyway in the right, low turnout environment, and should spend more time focusing on districts where Democrats actually have establishment candidates running instead of spending loads to try and keep McIntyre or Rahall in another 2 years. Personally, I wouldn't mind if national Democrats don't spend anything on the Bluedogs/New Dems. running.

Then personally, you don't mind if the Democrats have no chance on hell at taking back the House.

[LeBron]

Sad, because Mia Love strikes me as a hardcore dumb-dumb.  Maybe I'm wrong because I haven't paid that much attention.  But, she seems like the rare politician dumber than Sarah Palin.  

The Democrats should get Ken Jennings to run.  That would be an interesting contrast.

Does he even still live in Utah? I thought he moved to Washington. That would be awesome though and it could really test the intelligence of Utahns if they could pick a smart candidate, literally.

And while Mia Love is beyond awful, I do give her credit for supporting immigration reform because going against it when her own parents can't become legal U.S. citizens would make no sense. Although then again, that's the story of the GOP.

Now that I look back at Matheson's announcement, this could turn out to be good. There's no need wasting money on this district which I think could have fallen to Mia Love anyway in the right, low turnout environment, and should spend more time focusing on districts where Democrats actually have establishment candidates running instead of spending loads to try and keep McIntyre or Rahall in another 2 years. Personally, I wouldn't mind if national Democrats don't spend anything on the Bluedogs/New Dems. running.

Then personally, you don't mind if the Democrats have no chance on hell at taking back the House.

I only mean the real conservative Congressmen in R+ districts which isn't many. The way I see it, only members who will actually vote among their party lines at least part of the time deserve funds from the DCCC. So not only McIntyre and Rahall, but also Barrow, Peterson, and....actually, that's it. Maybe Owens to, just I want these few waste of space and money moderate Dem. Congressmen out. If it means maybe having to wait until at least 2016 until possible Democratic House control, so be it.

[Morning in Atlas]

Sad, because Mia Love strikes me as a hardcore dumb-dumb.  Maybe I'm wrong because I haven't paid that much attention.  But, she seems like the rare politician dumber than Sarah Palin.  

The Democrats should get Ken Jennings to run.  That would be an interesting contrast.

Does he even still live in Utah? I thought he moved to Washington. That would be awesome though and it could really test the intelligence of Utahns if they could pick a smart candidate, literally.

And while Mia Love is beyond awful, I do give her credit for supporting immigration reform because going against it when her own parents can't become legal U.S. citizens would make no sense. Although then again, that's the story of the GOP.

Now that I look back at Matheson's announcement, this could turn out to be good. There's no need wasting money on this district which I think could have fallen to Mia Love anyway in the right, low turnout environment, and should spend more time focusing on districts where Democrats actually have establishment candidates running instead of spending loads to try and keep McIntyre or Rahall in another 2 years. Personally, I wouldn't mind if national Democrats don't spend anything on the Bluedogs/New Dems. running.

Then personally, you don't mind if the Democrats have no chance on hell at taking back the House.

I only mean the real conservative Congressmen in R+ districts which isn't many. The way I see it, only members who will actually vote among their party lines at least part of the time deserve funds from the DCCC. So not only McIntyre and Rahall, but also Barrow, Peterson, and....actually, that's it. Maybe Owens to, just I want these few waste of space and money moderate Dem. Congressmen out. If it means maybe having to wait until at least 2016 until possible Democratic House control, so be it.

I'd actually support not giving Peterson money. He's fine without it. McIntyre is screwed, Rahall might be screwed, and Owens worries me a bit. Give Barrow the money though, he's savvy enough to hold the fort down if it's not in a wave.

Henry Cuellar really deserves a primary challenge ASAP (votes like a Blue Dog in a D+7 district), and so does Cooper (voting for the Southerland Amendment, voting against Sandy aid, and overall acting like a Republican on economic issues). Lipinski's district is really socon for some reason, and probably the last bastion of the Blue Dogs, but since he's very economically liberal I'm willing to overlook that.

[windjammer]

Sad, because Mia Love strikes me as a hardcore dumb-dumb.  Maybe I'm wrong because I haven't paid that much attention.  But, she seems like the rare politician dumber than Sarah Palin.  

The Democrats should get Ken Jennings to run.  That would be an interesting contrast.

Does he even still live in Utah? I thought he moved to Washington. That would be awesome though and it could really test the intelligence of Utahns if they could pick a smart candidate, literally.

And while Mia Love is beyond awful, I do give her credit for supporting immigration reform because going against it when her own parents can't become legal U.S. citizens would make no sense. Although then again, that's the story of the GOP.

Now that I look back at Matheson's announcement, this could turn out to be good. There's no need wasting money on this district which I think could have fallen to Mia Love anyway in the right, low turnout environment, and should spend more time focusing on districts where Democrats actually have establishment candidates running instead of spending loads to try and keep McIntyre or Rahall in another 2 years. Personally, I wouldn't mind if national Democrats don't spend anything on the Bluedogs/New Dems. running.

Then personally, you don't mind if the Democrats have no chance on hell at taking back the House.

I only mean the real conservative Congressmen in R+ districts which isn't many. The way I see it, only members who will actually vote among their party lines at least part of the time deserve funds from the DCCC. So not only McIntyre and Rahall, but also Barrow, Peterson, and....actually, that's it. Maybe Owens to, just I want these few waste of space and money moderate Dem. Congressmen out. If it means maybe having to wait until at least 2016 until possible Democratic House control, so be it.

I'd actually support not giving Peterson money. He's fine without it. McIntyre is screwed, Rahall might be screwed, and Owens worries me a bit. Give Barrow the money though, he's savvy enough to hold the fort down if it's not in a wave.

Henry Cuellar really deserves a primary challenge ASAP (votes like a Blue Dog in a D+7 district), and so does Cooper (voting for the Southerland Amendment, voting against Sandy aid, and overall acting like a Republican on economic issues). Lipinski's district is really socon for some reason, and probably the last bastion of the Blue Dogs, but since he's very economically liberal I'm willing to overlook that.

And Cuellar was endorsed by the Club for Growth...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sad, because Mia Love strikes me as a hardcore dumb-dumb.  Maybe I'm wrong because I haven't paid that much attention.  But, she seems like the rare politician dumber than Sarah Palin.  

The Democrats should get Ken Jennings to run.  That would be an interesting contrast.

Does he even still live in Utah? I thought he moved to Washington. That would be awesome though and it could really test the intelligence of Utahns if they could pick a smart candidate, literally.

And while Mia Love is beyond awful, I do give her credit for supporting immigration reform because going against it when her own parents can't become legal U.S. citizens would make no sense. Although then again, that's the story of the GOP.

Now that I look back at Matheson's announcement, this could turn out to be good. There's no need wasting money on this district which I think could have fallen to Mia Love anyway in the right, low turnout environment, and should spend more time focusing on districts where Democrats actually have establishment candidates running instead of spending loads to try and keep McIntyre or Rahall in another 2 years. Personally, I wouldn't mind if national Democrats don't spend anything on the Bluedogs/New Dems. running.

Then personally, you don't mind if the Democrats have no chance on hell at taking back the House.

I only mean the real conservative Congressmen in R+ districts which isn't many. The way I see it, only members who will actually vote among their party lines at least part of the time deserve funds from the DCCC. So not only McIntyre and Rahall, but also Barrow, Peterson, and....actually, that's it. Maybe Owens to, just I want these few waste of space and money moderate Dem. Congressmen out. If it means maybe having to wait until at least 2016 until possible Democratic House control, so be it.

Except it doesn't mean taking it back in 2016.  It means having no shot whatsoever until at least 2022. 

[Zioneer]

One thought about Matheson retiring; if he goes for governor, he has about a 50-50 chance of winning at this point (as per PPP's 2011 polls). If he wins, I don't think he'll go anything offensive enough to be booted out, and Utah tends to like their incumbents (Olene Walker notwithstanding). So if elected, he has a good chance of being re-elected governor in 2020. And of course, 2020 is when redistricting happens. So while a Governor Matheson 2.0 couldn't gerrymander the legislative and Congressional districts to be Democratic, and while the GOP could have a huge amount of influence, Matheson's veto (and the destruction of the 2/3s majority in the legislature that Matheson's election would probably bring) would be very useful in increasing Dem strength in Utah.

That's even disregarding the morale boost that a Dem governor would bring, and the change in political dialogue Matheson's election would bring. Utahns who have known nothing but GOP governors for 30 years would suddenly see Dems as being prospective executives.