Jim Matheson retiring

[IceSpear]

His internals must have been really bad.

[nclib]

Yikes. Not a fan of Matheson, but his voting record is not that bad for an R +14 district.

[RedSLC]

Matheson apparently said "Yes sir" when specifically asked whether he's considering Guv/Senate '16.

His best chance is against Lee in '16. But I don't think he's winning any statewide race. Honestly I think he was better off just running again in his district once more in 2014.

What about the statewide race in '18?

Anyways, Likely R with Corroon, Safe R with anyone else.

I believe that's an open seat (Hatch retiring)? If so, he could go for that as well. But supposedly Lee is not too popular, even for Utah.

Plus for all we know, Lee might decide to turn down running for re-election just so he can go for the Presidency or maybe become the VP candidate for Cruz or Paul. But I wouldn't suggest he runs for Governor. Utah used to have term-limits, but now with that law overturned, Herbert might decide to run again which would leave the race not winnable for Matheson. In my opinion, he's best off trying for Lee's seat whether he steps down or not. The problem with Hatch's open seat in 2018 is that it's a midterm in Utah. Matheson would need a Presidential year for turnout from SLC and especially his district to stand a chance.

In regards to this House seat, Matheson just proved that he's a traitor to Democrats. His moderate voting records I can accept despite large political differences, but blowing off the Democrats and giving Republicans a pickup here is uncalled for. He left us high and dry and unless Scott Matheson runs which I highly, highly doubt, Utah will officially have all Repub. Congressmen/Congresswomen.

I don't know about the governor's race yet. I'll have to look into that. But running for either Senate race would be very difficult. I think now, a democrat would have to get ~65% of the vote in Salt Lake County in order to have a chance. Does anybody see how that lines up?

And yes, Matheson is a traitor to the democrats. But honestly I'm very glad he did this. It really bothered me that a the most Romney state last year by far (73%) had a democrat in its congressional delegation. When a state like Kansas (60%) had all republicans. Utah really deserves to have all republicans, just like Massachusetts deserves to have all democrats.

If Utah voted 73-24 R last year, then by proportional representation, a 3-1 delegation is fair. If anything, this is actually a good reason for Kansas to have a 3-1, rather than a 4-0, delegation, and for Massachusetts to have republicans in its delegation as well...hell, if John Tierney's campaign goes south, you may actually get one.

This is one of the limitations of single-member constituencies - in addition to vulnerabilities from gerrymandering, it can't account for things such as voters from the minority party being distributed across the state, rather than concentrated in specific areas, which is the case with states like Massachusetts, Connecticut, Oklahoma, and, to a lesser extent, Kansas. Proportional representation could solve this, but then again, it has limitations of its own.

[Vosem]

This is the first real pickup opportunity Republicans are getting and it's R+14. Outside of the very few heavily Republican districts held by Democrats, there is nothing else out there for Republicans to gain.

What? Look through any analyst's list of competitive races. Count the number of races that were won by a close margin (less than 2%, or 5%, whatever) in 2012. You'll notice that there are more endangered Democratic seats out there than Republican ones. In 2012, the last eight seats to be called were all called for Democrats. It's truly bizarre not to recognize that there's significantly more opportunity out there for the Republicans than the Democrats (especially considering that even back when Democrats held a significant generic-ballot lead in October, still very few people projected House takeover).

[Zioneer]

It'll be interesting to see the non-Matheson ceiling for Dems in UT-04, assuming the nominee isn't an uber-moderate who overperforms.

[Brittain33]

His internals must have been really bad.

Yep. I doubt his retirement and the guy in NE-2 withdrawing his candidacy within the same time frame are coincidental when Obama's numbers have dropped significantly.

[minionofmidas]

D+1

[Zioneer]

His internals must have been really bad.

Yep. I doubt his retirement and the guy in NE-2 withdrawing his candidacy within the same time frame are coincidental when Obama's numbers have dropped significantly.

Or he could be preparing for a statewide run, and didn't want to waste money on a close win or close loss. He did say "Yes, sir", when asked if a future statewide run was possible for him.

[muon2]

Cook's latest report factors in the new retirements. UT-4 cancels out CA-31 in the likely/lean switch category. That leaves 14 seats in his tossup category - 10 D and 4 R.

D: AZ-01 Kirkpatrick, AZ-02 Barber, CA-07 Bera, CA-36 Ruiz, CA-52 Peters, FL-18 Murphy, FL-26 Garcia, IL-10 Schneider, NH-01 Shea-Porter, WV-03 Rahall

R: CO-06 Coffman, FL-13 VACANT, IA-03 OPEN, NJ-03 OPEN

[ElectionsGuy]

D+1

lol

[All Along The Watchtower]

Well at least the D caucus will have one less conservative...

[Hifly]

Well at least the D caucus will have one less conservative...

and one man further away from a majority...

[Nichlemn]

I wonder how many Democrats who've said things like "I'm glad that Matheson is going" have previously said things like "LOL stupid Republicans shooting themselves in the foot in primaries".

[IceSpear]

Matheson and McIntyre both supported the government shutdown, did they not?

[Zioneer]

Matheson and McIntyre both supported the government shutdown, did they not?

Yes. Matheson especially has been voting with the Republicans a lot this year, which I presume got tiring after a while.

Honestly, I hate Matheson for being ultra-conservative when I feel a correctly-messaged centrist could win, but I'm sad he's going, since the Utah Dems have no one else, except perhaps his brother Scott and Peter Corroon. Also, he brought in a lot of national Dem spending, which bolstered local Dems a bit.

I'm actually really worried for the Utah Dems right now.

[Niemeyerite]

D-0

[Badger]

Matheson and McIntyre both supported the government shutdown, did they not?

Yes. Matheson especially has been voting with the Republicans a lot this year, which I presume got tiring after a while.

Honestly, I hate Matheson for being ultra-conservative when I feel a correctly-messaged centrist could win, but I'm sad he's going, since the Utah Dems have no one else, except perhaps his brother Scott and Peter Corroon. Also, he brought in a lot of national Dem spending, which bolstered local Dems a bit.

I'm actually really worried for the Utah Dems right now.

If you think Matheson is "an ultra-conservative", just wait for Mia Love to show you what that truly means.....

[Badger]

This pickup is "ALL BECAUSE OF A WEBSITE?!?!"

What? Who said that? This pickup is because the long-time incumbent of an R +14 seat clearly wants to spend the next couple years running for governor.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

This pickup is "ALL BECAUSE OF A WEBSITE?!?!"

What? Who said that? This pickup is because the long-time incumbent of an R +14 seat clearly wants to spend the next couple years running for governor.

he was being sarcastic i think

[Badger]

This pickup is "ALL BECAUSE OF A WEBSITE?!?!"

What? Who said that? This pickup is because the long-time incumbent of an R +14 seat clearly wants to spend the next couple years running for governor.

he was being sarcastic i think

Tough to tell with Phil.

[IceSpear]

Matheson and McIntyre both supported the government shutdown, did they not?

Yes. Matheson especially has been voting with the Republicans a lot this year, which I presume got tiring after a while.

Honestly, I hate Matheson for being ultra-conservative when I feel a correctly-messaged centrist could win, but I'm sad he's going, since the Utah Dems have no one else, except perhaps his brother Scott and Peter Corroon. Also, he brought in a lot of national Dem spending, which bolstered local Dems a bit.

I'm actually really worried for the Utah Dems right now.

I'm not a fan of the "purge the moderates" strategy, but if it gets to the point where you support a Gohmert/Bachmann shutdown...you might as well just get the hell out of the party.

Hopefully McIntyre loses. He sucks up funds that could go to real Dems.

[Zioneer]

Matheson and McIntyre both supported the government shutdown, did they not?

Yes. Matheson especially has been voting with the Republicans a lot this year, which I presume got tiring after a while.

Honestly, I hate Matheson for being ultra-conservative when I feel a correctly-messaged centrist could win, but I'm sad he's going, since the Utah Dems have no one else, except perhaps his brother Scott and Peter Corroon. Also, he brought in a lot of national Dem spending, which bolstered local Dems a bit.

I'm actually really worried for the Utah Dems right now.

If you think Matheson is "an ultra-conservative", just wait for Mia Love to show you what that truly means.....

Oh, I'm not disputing that Mia Love will be an ultra-conservative in Congress, and I don't think a Bernie Sanders type would win in Utah. I just think that on a couple of issues, Matheson could've been a bit more lefty/moderate, and could've still won (or even picked up a couple of votes). I mean, I voted for the guy, would vote for him for Congress again, and will vote for him when he likely goes for governor, but it doesn't mean I have to respect his votes.

[DrScholl]

Matheson was one less vote for John Boehner, regardless of who he voted for as Speaker, he never voted for a Republican.

[Zioneer]

Matheson was one less vote for John Boehner, regardless of who he voted for as Speaker, he never voted for a Republican.

That is true, and as I understand, even if he couldn't vote for progressive measures himself, as a minority whip he could wrangle up the Dem votes for that kind of legislation.

[SamInTheSouth]

Congrats to the Republicans for one and possible only pickup in 2014.

LOL.  You don't actually believe that, do you?