MI-GOV: Snyder vulnerable.

[henster]

Looking at the latest PPP poll Snyder is looking very vulnerable his approval rating his still underwater a year after RTW bill and he only leads four against a candidate who  no one knows. Rs in the legislature are still passing controversial legislation (abortion insurance) I know the unions will be very active in MI in 2014 and will drive Dem turnout there. Snyder is seen as a big RINO after forcing through the Medicaid expansion so I think a lot of Rs might sit this race out.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Finally someone isn't panicking over this race.

[Maxwell]

His approval ratings are low but they are very clearly moving in the right direction. I think this race is going to be closer than 2010, but Snyder is more likely to win than not.

But sure, he is vulnerable. Any incumbent with only a 4 point lead is.

[pbrower2a]

More significantly his approval is only 42%. He may have won in a landslide in 2010, but many of those who voted for him recognize that he made a mistake. According to Nate Snyder, 44% at the start of the campaign season is the line of approval necessary for a 50% chance of an incumbent getting re-elected. December is before the start of the campaign season, but about everything has to go right (unusually-weak opponent, an economic miracle, absolutely no gaffes) for him to win reelection. 

His approval ratings took a dive once he signed the Right-to-Work law and a harsh anti-abortion law. Michigan has never been a hotbed of feminism, but it is a hotbed of labor activity. Industrial labor offers few on-the-job delights, and people tolerate it in Michigan (or elsewhere in the Midwest) only if it brings middle-income means. The Michigan state legislature enacted laws designed by out-of-state interests to gut the power of unions and drive down wages. 

Governor Snyder won election in 2010 in a Republican wave unlikely to be duplicated for years. Michigan voters had tired of a liberal governor and economic malaise, Snyder ran as a moderate who showed no signs of stepping on the toes of liberal and labor interests,  and he won on a gimmick against an unusually-weak opponent.  He won a landslide, but the low approval rating indicates that many of those who voted for him are disappointed. He will have a tough time getting re-elected. Michigan simply must return to its norms to oust him after one disappointing term.   

[Oldiesfreak1854]

His approval ratings are low but they are very clearly moving in the right direction. I think this race is going to be closer than 2010, but Snyder is more likely to win than not.

But sure, he is vulnerable. Any incumbent with only a 4 point lead is.

The Medicaid expansion and Detroit bankruptcy have helped him a lot.  It will probably be close, but I think he will win. 

[pbrower2a]

His approval ratings are low but they are very clearly moving in the right direction. I think this race is going to be closer than 2010, but Snyder is more likely to win than not.

But sure, he is vulnerable. Any incumbent with only a 4 point lead is.

The Medicaid expansion and Detroit bankruptcy have helped him a lot.  It will probably be close, but I think he will win. 

More likely, based upon his current approval rating, the usual gain of 6% from an approval rating at the start of the campaign season to the vote share in a binary race, and never having shown himself as an unusually-strong campaigner (he isn't Barack Obama or Ronald Reagan) he loses 52-48. He might fare better than some other R governors like Corbett and Scott, but that's weak praise.

He stepped on too many toes to get re-elected.     

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

His approval ratings are low but they are very clearly moving in the right direction. I think this race is going to be closer than 2010, but Snyder is more likely to win than not.

But sure, he is vulnerable. Any incumbent with only a 4 point lead is.

The Medicaid expansion and Detroit bankruptcy have helped him a lot.  It will probably be close, but I think he will win. 

I'd say it's a pure tossup. Once people know what Schauer is about, then I'll make a judgment. Until then, this is anybody's race.

[Gass3268]

The rape insurance issue isn't going to help Republicans here.

[pbrower2a]

The rape insurance issue isn't going to help Republicans here.

It has a veto-proof majority, so Governor Snyder can veto it and save his skin on that one.