PPP: IL-2016: Kirk ties Madigan

[Miles]

Reoprt.

Kirk- 41%
Madigan- 41%

Kirk's approvals are 32/32 with 37% undecided.

[sg0508]

He's going to have a tough time there in IL. The GOP ceiling is very low and in a presidential year, the late-deciders will come home to the democrat and the challenger. He will need to be in the upper 40s with a very small group of undecided voters to win another term.  It's a shame because I think highly of him, but it's an uphill battle and he BARELY pulled through in an off year/GOP year (2010).

[Vosem]

Good news is that even Madigan, by far the strongest Democrat who might actually run, still only ties Kirk; against any other candidate, he's probably in the mid-40s. The bad news is, it still could very well not be enough (and there's a fairly Republican national atmosphere right now that's probably inflating those numbers in any case).

This race looks like it will be quite competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Madigan is gonna be term limited. Once she devotes her time to running, she will win.

[DrScholl]

These numbers remind me of what Mark Pryor has been pulling in polling for the Arkansas Senate race, still a chance of winning, but not really good for an incumbent at all. He's always been on borrowed time in that seat.

[Lief 🗽]

This is with an electorate that voted for Obama only 51-42. In a presidential year electorate, he's toast.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Christie may be able to drag Kirk across the finish line with him.

[morgieb]

That's actually better than I anticipated tbh.

Although if the toplines are true, it seems favourable to Kirk.

[windjammer]

Well, I honestly think that Kirk could survive, if he runs.

Oh yeah Madigan! An another woman, cool!

[IceSpear]

This is with an electorate that voted for Obama only 51-42. In a presidential year electorate, he's toast.

[ElectionsGuy]

Not bad!

These numbers remind me of what Mark Pryor has been pulling in polling for the Arkansas Senate race, still a chance of winning, but not really good for an incumbent at all. He's always been on borrowed time in that seat.

Unlike this seat though, Pryor's approvals are awful. Kirk's are mediocre.

[Napoleon]

This is with an electorate that voted for Obama only 51-42. In a presidential year electorate, he's toast.

I'd like to think so but I don't think Kirk should be underestimated this early on.

[LeBron]

The question will be if Kirk is really up for running another campaign after that debilitating stroke he had. If he doesn't run then the Republicans will be stuck with no one near as appealing as Kirk and it will go to the Democrats for sure if Madigan decides to run.

In a case where he does run, as Lief said he's toast if Hillary's on the ballot, but he could be competitive if Quinn's still Governor with a low approval and can continue to drift away from the far-right Senate Republicans as he's been doing regularly.

[sg0508]

Health/age hurt Bill Roth in DE in 2000, but he was dead in the water running against Tom Carper.  What he has to hope for is a divisive democratic primary.  In a presidential year, it's going to be very tough.

Let's keep in mind that back in '98 (yes, the state has changed since then), Moseley-Braun, despite all of her problems almost won anyhow. A week longer and she probably beats Fitzgerald.

[You kip if you want to...]

Isn't this the "cursed" seat? No one's done more than one term in a long time.

[Franzl]

It should be rather obvious that this isn't particularly good news for Kirk.

[tmthforu94]

I think Kirk stands a shot - I'd venture to say his success is closely tied to the GOP's national success.

[Maxwell]

It should be rather obvious that this isn't particularly good news for Kirk.

I mean, yes, it's not great news, but the top Dem recruit only ties a totally unknown Senator in a deeply Democratic state.

[MATTROSE94]

Christie may be able to drag Kirk across the finish line with him.

Not if Michelle Obama decides to run for the senate in 2016.

[Franzl]

It should be rather obvious that this isn't particularly good news for Kirk.

I mean, yes, it's not great news, but the top Dem recruit only ties a totally unknown Senator in a deeply Democratic state.

And Kirk is an incumbent senator at 41% in a state that isn't friendly to his party, having won the state by a small margin in one of the largest GOP waves in recent history.

Never say never....but Kirk is likely in serious trouble.

[DrScholl]

It should be rather obvious that this isn't particularly good news for Kirk.

I mean, yes, it's not great news, but the top Dem recruit only ties a totally unknown Senator in a deeply Democratic state.

That misses the point, Kirk is an incumbent pulling only 41% three years out from the election. Most people aren't really thinking about the race right now and lots of those undecideds are Democratic voters, which isn't exactly helpful to Kirk. 2016 is a fairly defensive cycle for Republicans, anyway.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Christie may be able to drag Kirk across the finish line with him.

Not if Michelle Obama decides to run for the senate in 2016.

Is there ANY indication that she's looking to get elected office? She's not Hillary Clinton.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sheila Simon is looking for comptroller. If she loses she may run. As far as Lisa goes, term limits will be on ballot. Her bid for gov in 2018 will be complicated should Vallas become Lt gov, he may run for gov. She wants to stay involved.

[muon2]

Sheila Simon is looking for comptroller. If she loses she may run. As far as Lisa goes, term limits will be on ballot. Her bid for gov in 2018 will be complicated should Vallas become Lt gov, he may run for gov. She wants to stay involved.

Term limits on the ballot would only affect the legislature, not the executive offices like AG.

[CountryClassSF]

Which one of these two is more conservative? Very hard to tell these days.