Illinois state candidates

[ill ind]

  Filing for the March primary in Illinois closed today:

Candidates are as follows:

Governor and Lieutenant Governor

Pat Quinn/Paul Vallas (D inc)
Tio Hardiman/Donald Brunell (D)

   The delicious irony in this is that Hardiman as an African American from the west side of Chicago will probably have his best performance in several conservative downstate counties that are almost 100% white.  Quinn is disliked enough that people who regularly vote in the Democratic primary will vote for Hardiman simply because he is not Quinn.  He could carry a dozen or so counties.  It happened back in 2006 when Edwin Eisendrath ran an insurgent campaign against unpopular incumbent Rod Blagojevich.

Dan Rutherford/Steve Kim (R)
Kirk W. Dillard/Jil Tracy (R)
Bill Brady/Maria Rodriguez (R)
Bruce Rauner/Evelyn Sanguinetti (R)
Peter Edward Jones/- (R)

Attorney General:

Lisa Madigan (D inc)
Paul M. Schimpf (R-sacrificial lamb)

Secretary of State:

Jesse White (D inc)
Michael Webster (R-sacrificial lamb)

Comptroller:

Judy Baar Topinka (R inc)
Sheila Simon (D present Lt Governor)

State Treasurer:

Tom Cross (R)
Bob Grogan (R)
Michael W. Frerichs (D)

  This is also an interesting race.  Incumbent Dan Rutherford (R) is running for Governor.  Tom Cross is the former GOP minority leader in the house.  What will be perhaps the most interesting is how Senator Frerichs performs downstate.  He is the first non-Chicago metropolitan area Democrat to run for state office in quite some time.  He may run several points ahead of the rest of the ticket downstate.

ill ind

[Illiniwek]

How could no credible candidate challenge Quinn... I understand that Madigan isn't due to her father being Speaker of the House, but nobody else? Quinn is going to lose this one for the Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How could no credible candidate challenge Quinn... I understand that Madigan isn't due to her father being Speaker of the House, but nobody else? Quinn is going to lose this one for the Democrats.

Because of term limits. Regardless most of the Dems will be out anyway by 2018 and they will either go for gov or senator Sheila Simon/Lisa Madigan.

[Mr. Illini]

Topinka v. Simon is an interesting one. I personally cannot believe that Topinka is still involved in state politics after the corruption that she has been accused of as well as serving under Ryan, but it is Illinois after all. I wonder if Simon will lose popularity since she was the Lt. Governor under a very unpopular Governor. Also will be interesting to see how Topinka's very outspoken support of the marriage equality bill that passed will impact her candidacy (although I guess probably not much since ILGOP didn't put up a primary challenger). Topinka likely has the advantage in name recognition as well.

Governor is going to be such a mess. Illinoisans really don't like Quinn but I would say that they will plug their noses and vote for him against anyone of the Republicans except for Rutherford, who I think could beat Quinn.

Rutherford is a great candidate in that he is well liked downstate (being from there) as well as in the suburbs (they like moderates) and even relatively liked in the city (he performed far better there in the Treasurer race than most Republicans would). He is socially liberal (outspoken in favor of civil unions when that bill was in Springfield, didn't come out in favor of the marriage equality bill to save him self in the Governor's race, but kept saying we need a more tolerant and open-minded GOP) and willing to work with fiscal liberals and the unions while still being a principled fiscal conservative (which the GOP hates him for, of course, because anyone who even talks to the unions is shunned (which is one reason why they always lose)).

If Bill Brady is nominated he will lose by a lot. If Republicans ever want to win in this state they have to capture the suburbs, as downstate alone cannot outweigh 80-20 Democrat performances in Chicago on their own (they could but it is near impossible). The suburbs will not be turning out for a socially conservative fiscal hawk from downstate who has made offensive comments about gay people and who rails against Chicago's very existence at every chance he gets. In fact, they might even turn out strong for Quinn. Tea Party Republicans just aren't popular in the suburbs.

Kirk Dillard is a boring candidate IMO. He is from DuPage where I understand he is very popular, giving him an advantage in the western suburbs. He just won't excite people outside of DuPage, though. He is sort of a Mitt Romney-style candidate. A semi-moderate, suburban wealthy Republican who people think of as an alright guy but unrelateable.

Bruce Rauner is such an interesting candidate, IMO.  He is loved by the Tea Party on certain fiscal issues where he is very conservative and also for not taking money from unions and at the same time supports increased education spending and hangs out with Rahm Emanuel. I think he is a candidate that could excite people in a state like Iowa or Wisconsin where Democrats are willing to give someone that they don't agree with a vote because they are an exciting candidate and are a great leader, but in Illinois Democrats will, again, plug their nose and vote for Quinn. This is probably a good thing because Rauner would likely be as tough on the unions as Scott Walker was, and if that caused such chaos in Wisconsin imagine what it would do in this state, which is even more unionized and even more liberal.

My early calls:

Primary:

Quinn (D)
Brady (R)

Vallas (D)
Rodriguez (R)

Madigan (D)
Schimpf (R)

White (D)
Webster (R)

Topinka (R)
Simon (D)

Cross (R)
Frerichs (D)

General:

Quinn (D)
Vallas (D)
Madigan (D)
White (D)
Topinka (R)
Frerichs (D)

[TX Conservative Dem]

My take on Illinois 2014 statewide politics:

United States Senator-Durbin (D-inc.): he'll be at the top of the statewide ticket

Governor: Quinn (D-inc.) for now, unless Rutherford can win the GOP nomination in a come-from-behind (considering he's won statewide as State Treasurer in 2010)

Secretary of State: White (D-inc.) hopefully wins a 5th and final term, I thought he said 2010 was his last campaign, but I guessed he changed his mind.

State Attorney General: Madigan (D-inc.,) wins 4th term in landslide margin, double-digits. In 2018, she's gonna go for the governorship.

State Comptroller: Topinka (R-inc.) wins reelection, her 5th statewide election victory. I just don't see anyone voting for someone who looks UGLY.

State Treasurer: Toss-Up

[smoltchanov]

I would like for Cross to be elected. He was one of the most moderate Republicans on many social issues in legislature, and such republicans are rarity these days (i easily confess, that i like "contrarian" independent-minded politicians in all parties). The same for Topinka. I don't like Quinn, but prefer him over Brady and Dillard (who swung to the right as of late) at least. Democrats for other positions.

[muon2]

How could no credible candidate challenge Quinn... I understand that Madigan isn't due to her father being Speaker of the House, but nobody else? Quinn is going to lose this one for the Democrats.

Because of term limits. Regardless most of the Dems will be out anyway by 2018 and they will either go for gov or senator Sheila Simon/Lisa Madigan.

There are no term limits in IL.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

State Comptroller: Topinka (R-inc.) wins reelection, her 5th statewide election victory. I just don't see anyone voting for someone who looks UGLY.

Yet another post that explains why we have no women.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Topinka was George Ryan's comptroller. It is very likely Sheila Simon, since she will probably lose to Topinka run for her dad's job in 2016 against Kirk.

[muon2]

I saw a Rauner For Governor commercial a few days ago. I rarely watch TV, but I haven't seen any other political commercials out. Think he's trying to get a head start, or have I just missed the others?

Rauner is independently wealthy and can self fund. He's also plugged in with some of the big donors in IL. He's using that to build name ID.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Topinka was George Ryan's comptroller. It is very likely Sheila Simon, since she will probably lose to Topinka run for her dad's job in 2016 against Kirk.

If I remember correctly, she was actually state treasurer under Edgar and Ryan, and Blagojevich.  She was elected comptroller in 2010.

[muon2]

Topinka was George Ryan's comptroller. It is very likely Sheila Simon, since she will probably lose to Topinka run for her dad's job in 2016 against Kirk.

If I remember correctly, she was actually state treasurer under Edgar and Ryan, and Blagojevich.  She was elected comptroller in 2010.

She gave up the Treasurer's office in 2006 to run against Blago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Topinka was George Ryan's comptroller. It is very likely Sheila Simon, since she will probably lose to Topinka run for her dad's job in 2016 against Kirk.

If I remember correctly, she was actually state treasurer under Edgar and Ryan, and Blagojevich.  She was elected comptroller in 2010.

She was caught dancing the polka with George Ryan, which was shown in one of Blago's ads.

[IceSpear]

Topinka was George Ryan's comptroller. It is very likely Sheila Simon, since she will probably lose to Topinka run for her dad's job in 2016 against Kirk.

If I remember correctly, she was actually state treasurer under Edgar and Ryan, and Blagojevich.  She was elected comptroller in 2010.

She gave up the Treasurer's office in 2006 to run against Blago.

How did Blago even win that race? Didn't he have like a 7% approval rating? Was it just the 2006 Dem wave dragging him over the finish line?

[Maxwell]

Topinka was George Ryan's comptroller. It is very likely Sheila Simon, since she will probably lose to Topinka run for her dad's job in 2016 against Kirk.

If I remember correctly, she was actually state treasurer under Edgar and Ryan, and Blagojevich.  She was elected comptroller in 2010.

She gave up the Treasurer's office in 2006 to run against Blago.

How did Blago even win that race? Didn't he have like a 7% approval rating? Was it just the 2006 Dem wave dragging him over the finish line?

This was Blago when he had like a 20%-30% approval, which is enough to get you barely across the finishing line if you're a democrat + 2006 Wave to boost his margin.

[Flake]

I really want to make calls for any anti-Quinn Democrat, but I can't volunteer for someone who assaulted their wife.

[Aliens]

Supposedly none of the main four Republican candidates for governor will try to repeal gay marriage now that it's law.

[Mr. Illini]

Supposedly none of the main four Republican candidates for governor will try to repeal gay marriage now that it's law.

The only one I could have seen doing so would be Brady, as he is very socially conservative and that has often defined him (looks like he is trying to change that). Dillard is a social conservative, but he has never put a lot of emphasis on it.

I could have seen Rutherford and Rauner actually signing the legislation to legalize it, so obviously I would not expect an effort to repeal it from them.

[Aliens]

Yeah, and it's pretty convenient for the Republican candidates - now they can say that gay marriage is a settled issue in the state, whether or not they agree with it, and they can have more of a focus on economic matters.

Rauner has quite a few 15 second ads on YouTube, but they're a bit strange, especially his Lunch ad.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Yeah, and it's pretty convenient for the Republican candidates - now they can say that gay marriage is a settled issue in the state, whether or not they agree with it, and they can have more of a focus on economic matters.

Rauner has quite a few 15 second ads on YouTube, but they're a bit strange, especially his Lunch ad.

And who could forget the Wrecking Ball ad?

[LeBron]

Yeah, and it's pretty convenient for the Republican candidates - now they can say that gay marriage is a settled issue in the state, whether or not they agree with it, and they can have more of a focus on economic matters.

Rauner has quite a few 15 second ads on YouTube, but they're a bit strange, especially his Lunch ad.

And who could forget the Wrecking Ball ad?

Or the Table ad where he plans to Boom Boom special interests.

He's got my support though in the Illinois GOP primary. Not only for these hilarious ads, but polling suggests he stands the worst chance against Quinn which could go well for the DGA and I kind of agree with him on the term limits issue. Although only 8 years is a bit extreme for legislators.