Ukraine Crisis

[Franknburger]

Lithuania's FM Linkevicius has said Russia's decision to deploy forces in Ukraine means "Nato, art. 4 becomes valid," referring to article 4 of the Nato treaty. The article says Nato members must meet for consultations if "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."

This would make sense if Ukraine were a NATO member.

Well, there is a second scenario. Imagine the EU reacting with a trade boycott on Russia that includes transit of Russian goods over EU territory. That would effectively cut off Kaliningrad oblast from the remainder of Russia, and leave Russia with three choices:
1. Trade in Kaliningrad for Crimea (highly unlikely)
2. Give in on Crimea / Ukraine
3. Try to use military force in order to keep supply routes to Kaliningrad open, which would imply aggression on Lithuania, and as such invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty.

As such, the Lithuanian request indicates to me that blocking Kaliningrad is being seriously considered. What is the Lithuanian position on this issue, and how the EU will ultimately decide, is another question, but the EU is having quite an ace up their sleeve still.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The mobilization might be an empty gesture. Even the regular army is obviously divided and waiting to see what happens. I doubt Kiev government would be in effective control regarding military matters.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There are reports that the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy, the Hetman Sahaydachniy, has defected to Russia - including having raised the Russian flag.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

There are reports that the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy, the Hetman Sahaydachniy, has defected to Russia - including having raised the Russian flag.

That's exactly the problem.

[Peeperkorn]

There are reports that the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy, the Hetman Sahaydachniy, has defected to Russia - including having raised the Russian flag.

Source: RT.

Nope.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There are reports that the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy, the Hetman Sahaydachniy, has defected to Russia - including having raised the Russian flag.

Source: RT.

Nope.

My source was Die Welt which cited Reuters.

[swl]

Russia created Putin. Russians like Putin. Russians need a Putin.

They have no changed since the Tsar's age.

If you think that with his death the people will be converted in happy liberal democrats, well, you are wrong.

And the most powerful forces in Russia after Putin are not the happy liberal democrats, but the ultra-nationalists and the old style communists. Putin is holding together a country that sunk in quasi anarchy in the 90s, a country plundered by mafia and oligarchs that Westerners are happy to protect (hello Berezovsky and Abramovich), and where politics range from neo-nazis to stalinists. I don't think any current European leader would be able to maintain a relative stability in such a country.

Some compared him to Charles de Gaulle, and I somehow agree with that.

[Cassius]

I think its a mistake for people to compare Putin to Hitler. I mean, from what I've read about him, Putin doesn't seem to possess the vast territorial ambitions that Hitler did, even if he does seem to desire some territorial expansion and the creation of a collection of pliant vassals surrounding Russia's borders. In a sense, his ambitions are far more practical, and achievable, than those held by Hitler. I'd also argue that Putin is far more stable and intelligent than Hitler ever was, so it would be dangerous to underestimate him in that category (though I'm not sure many do anyway).

[RogueBeaver]

Kerry talking about economic sanctions and reversion to the G7 but twice says no military options are being considered.

That Kaliningrad idea sounds fantastic. EU should approve that ASAP.

[windjammer]

Kalwejt, how is Poland reacting?

[Antonio the Sixth]

That Kaliningrad idea sounds fantastic. EU should approve that ASAP.

Even better, could Poland and Lithuania do that on their own?

[Silent Hunter]

Worth mentioning that a number of journalists have had their body armour stolen from them by militia in Crimea.

[J. J.]

Putin is not Hitler.  He is Russian, and his goals are traditionally Russian.

It has been the Russian goal, for about 250 years, to have a major naval presence and a warm water port, in the Black Sea.  If Putin feels that possibility is threatened, he will take whatever action he needs to take.

What I think will happen is an "independent" Crimea, that is a Russian client (or puppet) state, or outright annexation.

[RogueBeaver]

The lease is basically in perpetuity, and even Putin isn't pretending it's about the base.

[Zanas]

Yeah I'm viewing a Crimea on the lines of Northern Cyprus or Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabagh). Then the international community would be happy not to have to actually react. I don't think Putin eventually moves towards annexing Eastern Ukraine or actually splitting it. It would be opening a can of the proverbial worms, and Putin wants stability.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah I'm viewing a Crimea on the lines of Northern Cyprus or Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabagh).

Which has been more or less confirmed by the new Crimean government since they announced today that the referendum on March 30 is gonna decide whether Crimea wants to become an "independent" country.

[Zanas]

It won't be recognized by much, maybe only Russia and Belarus, perhaps a few more of the CIS.

France and the UK have also suspended their participation in the G8's preparation btw.

[SPC]

Lithuania's FM Linkevicius has said Russia's decision to deploy forces in Ukraine means "Nato, art. 4 becomes valid," referring to article 4 of the Nato treaty. The article says Nato members must meet for consultations if "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."

This would make sense if Ukraine were a NATO member.

Well, there is a second scenario. Imagine the EU reacting with a trade boycott on Russia that includes transit of Russian goods over EU territory. That would effectively cut off Kaliningrad oblast from the remainder of Russia, and leave Russia with three choices:
1. Trade in Kaliningrad for Crimea (highly unlikely)
2. Give in on Crimea / Ukraine
3. Try to use military force in order to keep supply routes to Kaliningrad open, which would imply aggression on Lithuania, and as such invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty.

As such, the Lithuanian request indicates to me that blocking Kaliningrad is being seriously considered. What is the Lithuanian position on this issue, and how the EU will ultimately decide, is another question, but the EU is having quite an ace up their sleeve still.

Can't they just ship everything between Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg, or perform a Kaliningrad Airlift?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today, Russian riot police units heroically ended treacherous "peace rallies" in Moscow:










Also, anti-Russian protests in Warsaw...



And in Riga too...

[RogueBeaver]

Weird how Merkel hasn't said anything publicly. Are there any pending NATO applications? Those should be approved ASAP. Brzezinski also outlined an excellent plan on Zakaria's show which is very similar to that FP piece I posted earlier.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Weird how Merkel hasn't said anything publicly.

That isn't weird behavior for Merkel though.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/ukraine-politics/
And lets ratchet it up another notch...

The Ukraine has begun to moblize... While a full-scale Georgia-style invasion probably still doesn't make much sense for Putin, the question does have to be asked... If something like that happens, how long could Ukraine hold out?

[Famous Mortimer]

Don't know if anyone else has mentioned it, but while this is happening, Alexei Navalny has been placed under house arrested and forbidden to use the internet.

[MurrayBannerman]

Where would the EU get their gas and oil with the blockade of Kaliningrad?

Also, Merkel is cracking under the pressure at Germany's first chance since the 1930's to emerge as a European leader. If I were a German citizen, I would be furious.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Kaliningrad idea seems good on paper, but it's a fantasy.

First, the Russians are already using air and sea as a major transport venue. And how would you propose to cut it? By a naval blockade against the Russian Navy? You do realize this is an act of war.

Beside, Russia doesn't need to lift a single arm. Europe is still heavily dependant on their gas and oil. Very uncomfortable, but true. In such confrontation it'll be a matter of time before we would give in.

I'm sorry but what else do you expect? Let our economy utterly collapse or freeze to death in winter?