What if Pierre Trudeau had remained with the NDP?

[King of Kensington]

In founding the NDP in 1961 the party's key strategists and thinkers wanted both to become both more of a party of labor and also more of a party of the "liberal minded" middle classes.  So in addition to the longtime goal of David Lewis to basically model it on the Labour Party, a lot of the party's appeal was to based on "modernization" and being the most up-to-date in economic management and social science etc.* (postwar social democracy was very much a "modernization" project).  As Canadian Dimension publisher and Waffle figure Cy Gonick stated in an interview on CBC in 1969, "Trudeau upset the apple cart", that is he also presented a "modern" image in contrast to the older men who had previously dominated Canadian politics. 

Trudeau was a left-wing intellectual in Quebec and a member of the NDP in its very early years, though he was critical of its approach to the Quebec question.  He supported his friend the renowned political theorist Charles Taylor when he ran in Mount Royal in 1962 and 1963, but then ran against him in 1965 and the rest is history...

The NDP actually did show some potential in Quebec in the 1960s.  Charles Taylor got 30% of the vote in Mount Royal in 1965 and in a 1967 by-election the NDP got 42% of the vote only to see it collapse to Trudeaumania a year later).

What if Trudeau stuck with the NDP?  Could have pulled off the NDP dream of displacing the Liberals as the dominant party of center-left voters?  Presumably he would have run somewhere in 1965 and may have been the more "modern" leader to replace Tommy Douglas in the late 1960s, rather than the 60-ish David Lewis. 

But could he have created the social base for a social democratic party or would the tensions between Western populists and central Canada/Quebec been too much?  How would Trudeau have governed, if he was an NDPer rather than a Liberal? 

*Both Trudeau and Lewis were heavily influenced by the economic thinking of John Kenneth Galbraith.

[Hatman 🍁]

He'd have to get elected to parliament first. As you mentioned, the NDP came close to winning some seats in the 1960s, but never actually did. So the question is, would he have been popular enough to win in any seat?

[King of Kensington]

Perhaps he could have run in Outremont and won the 1967 by-election? 

[DC Al Fine]

He'd have to get elected to parliament first. As you mentioned, the NDP came close to winning some seats in the 1960s, but never actually did. So the question is, would he have been popular enough to win in any seat?

Mount Royal & Notre Dame de Grace are your best bets. The NDP nearly won 30% against Trudeau in the former and only lost by about 12% in the latter. I think NDP-Trudeau would have a chance in either of those.

If he couldn't get elected in Quebec, he'd have to get parachuted somewhere which has it's own problems. I doubt Trudeau would do well in a blue collar NDP riding. Perhaps they could've ran him in a downtown Toronto seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau could potentially win, but the Liberals might bring in a star candidate to get the nomination. There's no guarantee PET would even win a nomination, IRL the only reason he got Mount Royal is because HQ made quite clear that they'd appoint him if necessary. (Here that wouldn't matter because the NDP needed the star power far too badly) Nor was he a great campaigner in those days: majority significantly declined from McNaughton's 1963 tally. One area where PET wanted to run was St. Michel-Napierville, which is laughable.

As for leadership, would the NDP select a Quebecer as leader in that era? At any rate I don't see the NDP breaking through as a major party with or without PET as leader. He never had any interest or skills for psepho-strategy, unlike Mulroney/Chretien/Harper.

[King of Kensington]

I forgot about NDG - yes he could have run there and got in 1965.  Roguebeaver is quite right about Trudeau being a lousy campaigner when he started out.  Eddie Goldenberg recounts this in his memoir.

Of course assuming Trudeau gets into Parliament in '65 and Douglas steps down as leader early.  Obviously the social base of Trudeau's support is somewhat different - somewhat similar to the social base of Ed Schreyer in Manitoba (who was very much aligned with Trudeau on national vision, was a moderate social democrat and whom Trudeau appointed GG). What would be the impact on his policies if he's elected PM?  Some of his post-1975 are quite similar to the British Labour Party in handling the crisis - attempted corporatism etc., though he handled the Quebec question would be interesting.

What impact does it have on the party system - presumably the Liberals go the way of the British Liberals - and on the tension between western populists and central Canada?  The NDP itself was of course quite divided on these questions, on the Constitution and the Charter in the early 80s (and later on Charlottetown) and the central Canadian establishment backed Trudeau to the chagrin of Westerners like Allan Blakeney.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't see how the NDP surpasses the LPC (which is presumably led by Hellyer or Winters), but using handwavium ad infinitum I don't see PET's non-QC policies being that different from what happened after '72, particularly in his final term.