Rank from #1 to #5 the 5 individuals most likely to be elected president in 2016

[IceSpear]

1. Hillary Clinton - anyone not putting her #1 is a hack. She clearly has the clearest path to being nominated, and is at least a 50/50 chance to win the general election.
2. Chris Christie - most likely Republican to win the general election, but will he get past the primaries without severely compromising his moderate credentials?
3. Scott Walker - I'm thinking one of the Cheesemen win the primary, and unlike Paul or Cruz I think they're in the mainstream enough to be electable. Walker ahead of Ryan because I reckon he's the most likely to run, I feel Ryan would be more happy in Congress.
4. Paul Ryan - see above.
5. Jeb Bush - he gets here as he has a strong resume, a strong regional base and probably hasn't soured himself so much on the far-right as Christie has. Several could challenge this spot IMO.

Why is Chris Christie most likely to win the general?? He has accomplished nothing as GOV, squandering an excellent opportunity to move NJ to the right. Has a bromance problem with Obama with the GOP base and Bridgegate effectively killed his chances.

Look at the date of that post...

[morgieb]

1. Hillary Clinton - anyone not putting her #1 is a hack. She clearly has the clearest path to being nominated, and is at least a 50/50 chance to win the general election.
2. Chris Christie - most likely Republican to win the general election, but will he get past the primaries without severely compromising his moderate credentials?
3. Scott Walker - I'm thinking one of the Cheesemen win the primary, and unlike Paul or Cruz I think they're in the mainstream enough to be electable. Walker ahead of Ryan because I reckon he's the most likely to run, I feel Ryan would be more happy in Congress.
4. Paul Ryan - see above.
5. Jeb Bush - he gets here as he has a strong resume, a strong regional base and probably hasn't soured himself so much on the far-right as Christie has. Several could challenge this spot IMO.

Why is Chris Christie most likely to win the general?? He has accomplished nothing as GOV, squandering an excellent opportunity to move NJ to the right. Has a bromance problem with Obama with the GOP base and Bridgegate effectively killed his chances.

That was pre-Bridgegate.

[© tweed]

Clinton Bush Walker Paul Cruz

[PresidentTRUMP]

Clinton
Bush
Rubio
Walker
Warren/Biden

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

1. Hillary, solely because she's the presumptive Dem nominee.
2. Walker, as the GOP candidate with both the best chance in the general and the primary.
3. Rubio, as a strong runner up to Walker in both categories.
4. Bush, as he's well-equipped to swamp his opponents with money and win the primary. He has liabilities in the general, though.
5. Gillibrand, as the candidate most equipped to take over in a vacuum if Hillary bows out.

Warren is not running, Warren will never be running, and as such her chance is 0%. Christie has really damaged his brand in these last few weeks, as has Paul. Cruz would likely be a disaster in the general.

[Maxwell]

I saw my old list and wow, i butchered it.

[Del Tachi]

1.  Hillary Clinton - should be pretty obvious as to why she's number one.  She has a cleared path to the Democratic nomination and is a strong (albeit I think overrated) general election candidate.
2.  Jeb Bush - I'd peg Bush as the heavy favorite to win the GOP primary, and he's a strong enough general election candidate to propel him to the #2 spot. 
3.  Scott Walker - the most likely GOP nominee after Bush, and he's a good enough candidate to win the general election
4.  Joe Biden - I may catch some flack on this pick, but Biden is the Democratic heir apparent in the event that Clinton doesn't run and if something were to happen to President Obama between now and 2016, Biden would be an incumbent President
5.  Rand Paul - I keep drawing analogues between Rand Paul and Barack Obama 2008.  Paul could energize a new "type" of voter and that could help him immensely, the primary is still a steep uphill battle for him though 

[Oak Hills]

1. Hillary Clinton (nearly certain nominee, and has even odds in the general)
2. Jeb Bush (still think he's best positioned to get establishment support, and the establishment-backed candidate almost always wins the primaries)
3. Scott Walker (would not upset the establishment, and would also be palatable to the conservative base)
4. Marco Rubio (doesn't have much of a chance, but he's the only Republican aside from the aforementioned two that I could imagine winning both the primary and general)
5. Chris Christie (as damaged as he is, he still has a far better shot, even in the primaries, than the other joke candidates who will run)

In other words, I think Clinton, Bush, and Walker are the only candidates with over 3-4% chances or so.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

1. Paul
2. Walker
3. Rubio
4. Cruz
5. Warren

Clinton isn't running

[Mr. Smith]

1. Walker
2. Clinton (She's vulnerable to being the new Al Gore)
3. Bush
4. Paul
5. Christie

[IceSpear]

Clinton isn't running

lol

[Badger]

Hillary
Jeb (close 2nd)
Walker
Kasich
Rubio

Hon. Mention: Biden (if Hillary doesn't run, of course)

[Mr. Illini]

1) HRC
2) Jeb Bush
3) Scott Walker
4) Marco Rubio
5) Kirsten Gilibrand

[IceSpear]

So what is the justification for the people who are still on the "Hillary isn't running" train? Because that train left the station a few months ago. And not only that, so confident she's not running that she doesn't make the list at all? Please explain.

[IceSpear]

I'm not so convinced that she's not running that I didn't include her on the list. I'm just not convinced that she will run. There are a couple of reasons for this. First of all, everyone is talking about Hillary running except Hillary. There is very little reason to think that she will based on anything she herself has said or done. More importantly though, I don't know why she would. She's an exceptionally flawed candidate without all that great a record, numerous gaffes, and a ton of baggage. She's not going to get a free ride and just walk into the White House and she knows it. Why on earth would she give up what she's got now for a far from inevitable shot at the presidency?
I know, IceSpear, that you think it's dumb wishful thinking, but I assure you I've read all that you've read and considered all that you've considered and I would in fact welcome a Hillary candidacy. I've been saying for years that she's a paper tiger and that Gillibrand would be a much stronger candidate. Hillary very well may run. I am not omnipotent, but I am open minded enough to look at her potential candidacy objectively and see that she has more reasons to sit it out.  However if she does run, she won't necessarily win. That's why she's not on my list of 5 most likely to win.

It's just a question of odds. If she runs, Gillibrand does not. So in order for Gillibrand to make the list but not Hillary, you'd have to consider her odds of running to be what? Like <10%?

As for what she's done to show she's running, she has certain individuals lined up for key positions on her campaign. That's further than nearly every other potential candidate on either side has gone. Her team is openly debating whether to launch the campaign in April or July. Why would they be debating such a thing if she hadn't already given them an indication she was going to run?

[ShadowRocket]

My updated list:

1. Hillary Clinton- Pretty self-explanatory

2. Scott Walker- He has momentum, but can he maintain it? He'll be a formidable candidate in both the primary and general if he does.

3. Jeb Bush- The current establishment favorite, but Jeb is vulnerable and wont have the advantage of running in a weak field like Romney did.

4. Chris Christie- Probably the fallback option for the establishment if Jeb falters. I think he is one of the more charismatic candidates running and I can see that paying dividends for as long as his scandals don't get up with him and the whole vaccine debable isn't an omen for he'll look like as a candidate.

5. Martin O'Malley?- Don't laugh. Seriously if Hillary doesn't run for whatever reason I think he could be the biggest beneficiary if only because he may have a head start over the over candidates who would jump in the race. Biden probably wouldn't be taken seriously, Cuomo wouldn't survive a primary, and I think its dubious that Warren would run even in this scenario. O'Malley is boring but he checks off the right mark ideologically. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

lol lol lol

[Crumpets]

My current list:

1) Hillary Clinton
2) Marco Rubio
---huge gap---
3) Donald Trump
4) Joe Biden
5) Jeb Bush

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Should we start the same generically repetitive 2020 lists with zero accuracy?

1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Paul Ryan
3. Kirsten Gillibrand
4. Marco Rubio
5. Bill DeBlasio
Clinton isn't running for reelection

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

1. Hillary
2. Rubio
3. Trump
4. Bush
5. Cruz

Biden's time is up and Sanders isn't beating Hillary. Hillary's strength propels her to number one on this list and forces Sanders to not be on the list since he has little to no path to defeating her for the nomination. I believe that Cruz will edge out Carson for 5th. The others are fairly self explanatory.

[Mr. Morden]

So back when this thread started in 2013, almost everyone was slotting Christie as the most likely Republican, with Walker the consensus choice for second most likely Republican.

Oops.

[TarHeelDem]

1. Clinton
2. Biden
3. Rubio
4. Bush
5. Trump

[eric82oslo]

#1 Hillary
#2 Bernie
#3 Bush
#4 Rubio
#5 Christie

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

1) Hillary
2) trump
3) Biden
4) Rubio
5) cruz

[Why]

1. Clinton
2. Biden
3. Rubio
4. Carson
5. Bush