Hillary's Weakness in the West

[JRP1994]

To what extent would Hillary's weakness in the west hurt her electoral prospects?

[JRP1994]

So far, yes, Colorado appears to be a poor state for her. I wonder if that would manifest itself in bluer (Atlas redder) states?

[Supersonic]

Obviously Colorado, but her weakness in the west won't be too damaging. The rest of the states mentioned are not very likely to flip, Nevada is shifting D very quickly, New Mexico is surely a lean-D state now, the rest aren't in play.

[JRP1994]

 

Obviously Colorado, but her weakness in the west won't be too damaging. The rest of the states mentioned are not very likely to flip, Nevada is shifting D very quickly, New Mexico is surely a lean-D state now, the rest aren't in play.

That's certainly true.

* Just a point of clarification for everyone: I'm not asking WHICH state she would be most LIKELY to lose, I'm asking what would be the GOP's "high water mark" in the west against her.

[NewYorkExpress]

Nevada, if Martinez is on the ticket... otherwise just Colorado

[Maxwell]

Colorado. With the right ticket, Nevada and even *crosses fingers* New Mexico could down too.

Oregon is tough, and I think it will only go in a blow-out/near blow-out against Hillary, which will be extremely difficult considering her sheer name recognition.

[Goldwater]

With the right ticket and circumstances, I could see the Republicans winning Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico against her. It would take a much weaker Democrat for them to win Oregon or anything higher.

[badgate]

She's going to have to work for Colorado. The others she doesn't really need to campaign in; if she does, it means she's in trouble. Except maybe Nevada, because fundraising.

[CountryClassSF]

Colorado, but let's be clear. Obama's  divisive and polarizing nature is bringing her numbers down.

I believe the Democrats overreached on2nd amendment in Colorado.

[m4567]

Even with a great ticket, I don't think New Mexico will go republican against Clinton. Maybe against a generic democrat.

[TDAS04]

Colorado 

[Beet]

Doesn't she (for some reason, I'm not too familiar just yet) poll badly in Colorado? I've seen people here go on about how she's not a good fit for the state.

I'm not sure what the reason is. I feel that there's a Put Together vs. Not Put Together divide in this country, and the Clintons and Colorado fall on opposite sides of it.

In other words, there is a whole arc of states from Kansas (and everything to Kansas's north and West, until the coast) going up through Iowa, then east to Indiana, then jumping north to Vermont, that behaves similarly politically. They were all traditionally Republican states in the 19th century. These are the Put Together states. You see good health outcomes, low smoking rates, low obesity, low poverty, etc.

And then there are not Not Put Together states. Draw a line from middle Texas to western Oklahoma, then northeast to St. Louis, then up along the Ohio River through southwestern Pennsylvania. Everything to the east and south of this line is Not Put Togethers. These areas traditionally voted Democratic. You see poor health outcomes, higher smoking, higher poverty, etc. The Clintons fall squarely on the Not Put Together side.

Obama, strangely enough, falls on the Put Together side even though he's a Democrat. You can see it in his reputation for "staying cool", his mother's Ph.D pedigree, his own Harvard pedigree, the tone of his books, his moderate politics, the themes of his campaigns, and so on. It's very uptight. You can see how he appealed to Idaho Republicans who turned out 20,000 strong to see him in a mass rally in January 2008.

[DS0816]

None of them.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nevada. Nevada is a possibility, Colorado is an obvious one where she is weak. But she can't really lose New Mexico and beyond IMO.

[CountryClassSF]

None of them.

Really?

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/politics/poll-christie-leads-clinton-in-colorado-in-2016-presidental-race

[Devils30]

If Florida has a D+ PVI it won't matter in the end. I think Colorado is winnable for Hillary but obviously it will take resources. Add 4-5 points to her polls there too to adjust for 1) the fact they poll a midterm electorate, 2) CO polls natural GOP bias

[Devils30]

I guess technically the GOP CAN win without Florida, just very unlikely. If you give the GOP candidate Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Wisconsin and New Hampshire it still leaves him 4 electoral votes short at 266. Of course Pennsylvania would be a top target but that's another state Hillary clearly would be stronger in than Obama relatively. Add to that, Virginia trending D...Christie could make gains with whites in NoVA but it's tough to see any of the others. NC could also be a GOP problem, like northern FL many parts of it have maxed out with GOP white voters and even a slight swing of rural voters to Hillary would win it.

[Likely Voter]

Hillary Clinton will take a page from Rick Perry, if his hipster glasses make up for his dumbass problem, then this will take care of Hillary's weakness in the West.

[© tweed]

why are we presuming a Hillary weakness in the West?  2008 primary results?

[morgieb]

why are we presuming a Hillary weakness in the West?  2008 primary results?

A lot of polling has her doing better in the South and North than out West.

[Mr. Morden]

why are we presuming a Hillary weakness in the West?  2008 primary results?

A lot of polling has her doing better in the South and North than out West.

We haven't actually seen much polling of the West.  Among Western states, it's really just Colorado where we've seen a significant Republican swing show up in the polling.  In the Christie vs. Clinton polls, we also see a swing against Clinton in the North.  In fact, in general, we see the Democratic states swinging Republican, and vice versa.  Here's the Christie vs. Clinton swing map I put together, using the most recent polls for each state, and comparing against the 2012 results:

[pbrower2a]

Barack Obama, whatever his virtues, is very polarizing. Maybe that is because he reminds many Americans of... well, you know. We need look at how completely the white vote went against Barack Obama in the Deep South.  So President Obama did freakishly well in some parts of America and unusually badly -- as bad as McGovern did in some states, which is really bad -- in some others.

We need to see more polls in the West other than in Montana and Colorado. Both states might show a swinging-back of the political pendulum. But so could Arkansas and Louisiana. 

[CubanoTX]

If Florida has a D+ PVI it won't matter in the end. I think Colorado is winnable for Hillary but obviously it will take resources. Add 4-5 points to her polls there too to adjust for 1) the fact they poll a midterm electorate, 2) CO polls natural GOP bias

GOP bias PPP has more polls then anyone and there a dem bias all the way

[Flake]

If Florida has a D+ PVI it won't matter in the end. I think Colorado is winnable for Hillary but obviously it will take resources. Add 4-5 points to her polls there too to adjust for 1) the fact they poll a midterm electorate, 2) CO polls natural GOP bias

GOP bias PPP has more polls then anyone and there a dem bias all the way

PPP had the most accurate polls in the 2012 election, so I wouldn't really call it a bias as much as they are right on the money.

[Mr. Morden]

PPP had the most accurate polls in the 2012 election, so I wouldn't really call it a bias as much as they are right on the money.

I don't think so: