McCain 2008/Obama 2012 voters

[IceSpear]

How many of these people existed? Who were they? Where were they from? Why did they change?

[old timey villain]

How many of these people existed? Who were they? Where were they from? Why did they change?

Asian minorities in the bay area (just being picked up in the longterm trend)

Cuban Americans in the Miami area (turned off by self deportation rhetoric and perhaps Romney's fake tan on Univision)

White auto workers in rustbelt cities like Cleveland (pissed off at Romney's callousness towards the fate of auto industry)

The occasional white southerner (wasn't excited by the GOP ticket this year and very quietly voted for Obama)

A newly out young gay person (confused in 2008 but out and proud in 2012 and very focused on gay rights)

Someone who has changed careers. Perhaps they were in finance in 2008 in NY and voted for McCain, but entered the public sector after the market crashed and voted for Obama. (Changing allegiances due to their occupation)

[Skill and Chance]

You missed the most significant group: rural Alaskan natives

Because of them, Obama actually won more total area in 2012 than 2008.

[old timey villain]

You missed the most significant group: rural Alaskan natives

Because of them, Obama actually won more total area in 2012 than 2008.

Oh yeah, very true. I always forgot about the non contiguous areas of the US. So what was their reason "Sarah Palin isn't on the ticket this year, so I guess we'll support the person she has been attacking for the past four years on fox news"??

[Likely Voter]

well looking at Exit polls Obama picked up votes with:
- Asians
- Latinos
- Gays
- Democrats
- Middle Income (30k-50k)

Also some moderate/liberal voters in Alaska and Arizona (who were voting for McCain/Palin as favorite son/daughter)

there are some other interesting regional subgroups as well...you can see here (click on 'change from 2008')
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls
...although some of the 'change' is new voters of course

[IceSpear]

well looking at Exit polls Obama picked up votes with:
- Asians
- Latinos
- Gays
- Democrats
- Middle Income (30k-50k)

Also some moderate/liberal voters in Alaska and Arizona (who were voting for McCain/Palin as favorite son/daughter)

there are some other interesting regional subgroups as well...you can see here (click on 'change from 2008')
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls
...although some of the 'change' is new voters of course

Yeah, it's hard to tell how much is due to new voters/turnout differences rather than people actually switching their vote.

So far it seems like the main consensus groups are:

- Florida Cubans offended by Romney's self deportation comments
- Rural Alaskans who voted for McCain because Palin was on the ticket, then switched to Obama

Did Obama really pick up any white auto workers who voted McCain? I know he was SUPPOSED to, but in the end, Ohio and the other Midwest states ended up about where you'd expect them to be.

[Likely Voter]

Actually the NYT poll results show much bigger jumps with Asians in CA and Latinos in AZ and CO, than Asians in AK or Latinos in FL (who swung to Obama at less than the national avg for Latinos)

If you want to dig deeper you need to manually compare 2008 exit polls with 2012...best place is cnn.com. Looking at Union households in OH you can see Obama picked up 4 points but lost points in non-union. No way to narrow that down to white auto workers.  Obama also gained a couple points with OH women.

[Indy Texas]

How many of these people existed? Who were they? Where were they from? Why did they change?

Asian minorities in the bay area (just being picked up in the longterm trend)

Cuban Americans in the Miami area (turned off by self deportation rhetoric and perhaps Romney's fake tan on Univision)

White auto workers in rustbelt cities like Cleveland (pissed off at Romney's callousness towards the fate of auto industry)

The occasional white southerner (wasn't excited by the GOP ticket this year and very quietly voted for Obama)

A newly out young gay person (confused in 2008 but out and proud in 2012 and very focused on gay rights)

Someone who has changed careers. Perhaps they were in finance in 2008 in NY and voted for McCain, but entered the public sector after the market crashed and voted for Obama. (Changing allegiances due to their occupation)

With regards to race/ethnicity-based political shifts, it's more a matter of people who voted one way dying and younger people growing up and voting a different way. The old-school Cuban abuela who got chased out of her house in Havana by revolutionaries 50 years ago is a staunch Republican. Her grandchildren who turned 18 last year have no such allegiance to a party they likely view as racist, regressive and reactionary.

I could definitely see the auto workers being a possibility, but even more of a possibility is the autoworkers' wives.

The white southerner probably simply left that section of the ballot blank.

Newly out gay people, yes, but also already-out gay people who simply view the 2012 GOP as less welcoming towards them than the 2008 GOP (and rightfully so).

The changing careers thing is interesting. But I think self-selection is going to play a role. The sort of person who, say, works as a trader on Wall Street isn't going to get a public sector job after that. He doesn't want one, his skill set isn't suited to it and his personality and job expectations are not suited to it. But "finance" is an amorphous term that could theoretically include everyone from the JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon down to the high school-educated woman who works as a teller at a Chase bank branch in Peoria.

[old timey villain]

well looking at Exit polls Obama picked up votes with:
- Asians
- Latinos
- Gays
- Democrats
- Middle Income (30k-50k)

Also some moderate/liberal voters in Alaska and Arizona (who were voting for McCain/Palin as favorite son/daughter)

there are some other interesting regional subgroups as well...you can see here (click on 'change from 2008')
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls
...although some of the 'change' is new voters of course

Yeah, it's hard to tell how much is due to new voters/turnout differences rather than people actually switching their vote.

So far it seems like the main consensus groups are:

- Florida Cubans offended by Romney's self deportation comments
- Rural Alaskans who voted for McCain because Palin was on the ticket, then switched to Obama

Did Obama really pick up any white auto workers who voted McCain? I know he was SUPPOSED to, but in the end, Ohio and the other Midwest states ended up about where you'd expect them to be.

I really think he did, at least in Ohio. Lucas, Cuyahoga, Mahoning and Trumbull counties all swung to Obama in Ohio and those counties are where the bulk of the state's auto and other manufacturing workers are. You could maybe attribute the swing in Cuyahoga to black voters (you'd have to look at a swing precinct map) but Lucas, Mahoning and Trumbull are much whiter and with the black vote pretty maxed out, I assume the swings there have to come from some other group of voters.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There's some precincts right in my area that flipped from McCain in 2008 to Obama in 2012. There's even a county in Kentucky that did so. So this isn't as rare as you think.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Obama probably picked up voters in Detroit, but Wayne County still swung slightly Republican.

[Skill and Chance]

Obama probably picked up voters in Detroit, but Wayne County still swung slightly Republican.

All the state specific auto bailout analysis was really overblown.  The surprise of the night was CO and VA > OH for Obama.  The degree to which other parts of the midwest swung to Romney was also surprising in light of the pretty robust national margin.

If anything, 2012 should be a warning sign for Dems in OH in future cycles.  Obama literally threw everything he had at that state and only did 0.6% better than in FL, which he had given up on in terms campaign effort. 

[Flake]

Obama probably picked up voters in Detroit, but Wayne County still swung slightly Republican.

All the state specific auto bailout analysis was really overblown.  The surprise of the night was CO and VA > OH for Obama.  The degree to which other parts of the midwest swung to Romney was also surprising in light of the pretty robust national margin.

If anything, 2012 should be a warning sign for Dems in OH in future cycles.  Obama literally threw everything he had at that state and only did 0.6% better than in FL, which he had given up on in terms campaign effort. 

100+ field offices in Florida beg to differ.

[Liberalrocks]

I am one, I was upset that Hillary Clinton lost the primary in 2008 and did not feel Obama was properly qualified for the office. McCain as a moderate republican on social issues made him tolerable for me. He is the only republican Ive ever voted for in a presidential race. After a term as president my opinion of Obama changed and inexperience was no longer relevent. I did not like Mitt Romney did like him at any point. The 47% just re enforced that. I also did not want to give power to the tea party and felt Mitt would be stuck as a puppet. As a gay man I supported Obama's embrace of gay marriage which helped get me excited with his reelection efforts.

I am upset with the ACA rollout and the government shutdown debacle but I would still vote to reelect Obama over Mitt Romney.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I am one.  I voted McCain in 2008 because I thought the place where the difference in the candidates would have the greatest impact was foreign affairs and I didn't think Obama was all that good there.  (And he hasn't been, but he's had some good Secretaries of State to save his bacon.)

As for 2012, well, as much as I wanted to vote for Romney to get all three branches in one party, he was so out of touch I couldn't vote for him (not that a Presidential vote in SC really matters) so I voted Obama. (I didn't vote Libertarian because I am tired of Republicans who cannot win their own party's nomination abandoning ship and running as faux Libertarians.)

[DS0816]

I am one, I was upset that Hillary Clinton lost the primary in 2008 and did not feel Obama was properly qualified for the office. McCain as a moderate republican on social issues made him tolerable for me. He is the only republican Ive ever voted for in a presidential race. After a term as president my opinion of Obama changed and inexperience was no longer relevent. I did not like Mitt Romney did like him at any point. The 47% just re enforced that. I also did not want to give power to the tea party and felt Mitt would be stuck as a puppet. As a gay man I supported Obama's embrace of gay marriage which helped get me excited with his reelection efforts.

I am upset with the ACA rollout and the government shutdown debacle but I would still vote to reelect Obama over Mitt Romney.

No real liberal voted for John McCain in 2008—a year in which his Republican party was essentially taken down by the party's abominable, incumbent U.S. president.

[DS0816]

Add to this topic that President Obama, who missed the male vote in 2008 Colorado (which he carried in a Democratic pickup) by one percentage point won over the male vote in 2012 Colorado (which meant immediate carriage of the state; that made him the first Democrat elected beyond one full term to carry Colorado in all elections since 1912 and 1916 Woodrow Wilson).

[hopper]

Obama probably picked up voters in Detroit, but Wayne County still swung slightly Republican.

All the state specific auto bailout analysis was really overblown.  The surprise of the night was CO and VA > OH for Obama.  The degree to which other parts of the midwest swung to Romney was also surprising in light of the pretty robust national margin.

If anything, 2012 should be a warning sign for Dems in OH in future cycles.  Obama literally threw everything he had at that state and only did 0.6% better than in FL, which he had given up on in terms campaign effort. 

It was the black vote that made the difference in Ohio for Obama in 2012. Black Turnout was at 15% and Ohio's black  population is 12%.

As for Ohio's future in Presidential Elections it trended Dem in 2012.

[hopper]

Actually the NYT poll results show much bigger jumps with Asians in CA and Latinos in AZ and CO, than Asians in AK or Latinos in FL (who swung to Obama at less than the national avg for Latinos)

If you want to dig deeper you need to manually compare 2008 exit polls with 2012...best place is cnn.com. Looking at Union households in OH you can see Obama picked up 4 points but lost points in non-union. No way to narrow that down to white auto workers.  Obama also gained a couple points with OH women.

I don't get why the CO Hispanic Vote swung to Obama by 23 points. In surrounding Western States it swung to Romney by 6 in CA and in NV by 7 points vs 2008 numbers. Maybe Colorado's very libertarian streak is also anti-Arizona Immigration Law.

[hopper]

How many of these people existed? Who were they? Where were they from? Why did they change?

Asian minorities in the bay area (just being picked up in the longterm trend)

Cuban Americans in the Miami area (turned off by self deportation rhetoric and perhaps Romney's fake tan on Univision)

White auto workers in rustbelt cities like Cleveland (pissed off at Romney's callousness towards the fate of auto industry)

The occasional white southerner (wasn't excited by the GOP ticket this year and very quietly voted for Obama)

A newly out young gay person (confused in 2008 but out and proud in 2012 and very focused on gay rights)

Someone who has changed careers. Perhaps they were in finance in 2008 in NY and voted for McCain, but entered the public sector after the market crashed and voted for Obama. (Changing allegiances due to their occupation)

I don't think Cubans care about Romney's rhetoric on immigration as there family has been in FL for years. By the same token younger Cubans could care less about Castro because that wasn't a factor in their childhood or teen years. Its the Puerto Ricans in the Orlando area that were the deciding factor in Obama carrying Florida last time.

[old timey villain]

How many of these people existed? Who were they? Where were they from? Why did they change?

Asian minorities in the bay area (just being picked up in the longterm trend)

Cuban Americans in the Miami area (turned off by self deportation rhetoric and perhaps Romney's fake tan on Univision)

White auto workers in rustbelt cities like Cleveland (pissed off at Romney's callousness towards the fate of auto industry)

The occasional white southerner (wasn't excited by the GOP ticket this year and very quietly voted for Obama)

A newly out young gay person (confused in 2008 but out and proud in 2012 and very focused on gay rights)

Someone who has changed careers. Perhaps they were in finance in 2008 in NY and voted for McCain, but entered the public sector after the market crashed and voted for Obama. (Changing allegiances due to their occupation)

I don't think Cubans care about Romney's rhetoric on immigration as there family has been in FL for years. By the same token younger Cubans could care less about Castro because that wasn't a factor in their childhood or teen years. Its the Puerto Ricans in the Orlando area that were the deciding factor in Obama carrying Florida last time.

Yes, but Miami Dade (the largest county in the state) also posted the biggest swing to Obama. Obama held the Puerto Ricans in Orlando but he obviously flipped some voters in Miami and S Florida.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

If I was able to vote, me. Also, there is Robert Downey Jr.

[Skill and Chance]

Actually the NYT poll results show much bigger jumps with Asians in CA and Latinos in AZ and CO, than Asians in AK or Latinos in FL (who swung to Obama at less than the national avg for Latinos)

If you want to dig deeper you need to manually compare 2008 exit polls with 2012...best place is cnn.com. Looking at Union households in OH you can see Obama picked up 4 points but lost points in non-union. No way to narrow that down to white auto workers.  Obama also gained a couple points with OH women.

I don't get why the CO Hispanic Vote swung to Obama by 23 points. In surrounding Western States it swung to Romney by 6 in CA and in NV by 7 points vs 2008 numbers. Maybe Colorado's very libertarian streak is also anti-Arizona Immigration Law.

I think that is most likely to be a bad polling result.  If it reflected reality, we would expect a huge 10+% swing to Obama in the rural counties SW of Pueblo.  That didn't happen.  About half of them actually swung to Romney.  The question is whether the bad exit poll was the 73% in 2012 or the unusually moderate 61% Obama exit poll in CO in 2008.  I personally think the 2008 result was off.

[Dancing with Myself]

If I was of age in 2008 I would have voted for McCain. I felt he was more experienced and had potential to be more competent than Obama.  His VP choice sucked the big one though.

But in 2012 I voted for Obama for 3 reasons:

1:He turned out to have a decent first Term. He had a 50/50 share of success and failure, getting Bin Laden was prob his biggest accomplishment imo.

2. Romney ran a horrible campaign in my eyes.  Too much of a stereotype Republican in his answers and he didn't give enough clarification on others.

3. Romney was out of touch and unlikeable. He seemed like someone for Business even if he claimed otherwise, I just knew if he'd win he's be a puppet. Mitt wasn't motivating either, he was a lot like Kerry in that way.  I don't mind Ryan though. 

[Sol]

Mostly ethnic minorities which have been traditionally GOP-friendly- Vietnamese, Cubans, Alaska Natives.