China (PRC) Promises Reforms

[Beet]

Chinese President Xi Jinping announced Friday the most sweeping package of economic, social and legal reforms in decades, including a relaxation of its “one-child” policy and the scrapping its much-criticized system of labor camps,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-relaxes-one-child-policy-abolishes-prison-labor-camps/2013/11/15/a3f3f476-4df7-11e3-be6b-d3d28122e6d4_story.html

I disagree that anything that has happened so far is the most sweeping in "decades", however I have to say it's a bit surprising. This administration's moves towards reforms have seemed to be false flags. It remains to be seen whether any of this will actually be implemented, and how comprehensively. Still, it deserves notice.

[Ban my account ffs!]

They can relax the one-child policy all they want.  China's fertility rate will continue to tumble and remain low.  Just as it had already tumbled and was already quite low by the time the policy was implemented in the first place.

Demographically speaking relating to age structure... China is in 2013 where Japan was 20 years ago.  They had their initial baby boom almost exactly 20 years after Japan (1965-70 rather than 1945-50)... their echo boom 15-20 years later (1985-1990 rather than 1970-1975)... and for the first time due to aging, the working age population fell in 2012... just as it did for the first time in the late 1980s in Japan.

They shouldn't be worried about "relaxing" the one child policy.  They should end it immediately and start paying women handsome sums to have 3rd or 4th children... to counterbalance the increasing number who will never have them.

[Foucaulf]

First off is a change of rhetoric: the tagline for this report is "comprehensive, deepening reforms," which is the most strongly worded one in a while. Here I have no doubt that Xi and the Standing Committee understand the system is broken and abolish what is no longer working, but it's a matter of consolidating power.

The loosening of the one-child policy and the end of labour camps has been hinted at for a while now, but it's good that they've acted on it. I think those two will be implemented as it stands. There's the bigger problem of reining in local officials anyway - excesses like forced abortions may very well continue.

I wouldn't make a straight comparison between China and Japan, since the context of an elderly population is different. In Japan (and most developed countries) it's unfunded liabilities; in China it's more one of social unrest. I would think economic pressures weigh down on whether to have children far more than policy changes do. Just minor policy changes won't reverse demographic trends - but it may leave breathing space when it comes to making seniors won't starve. *

And, honestly, shifts in the workforce is not the most pressing of China's problems. Land reform is much more urgent; so is corruption and the housing bubble. Those can be distilled down to problems of inequality and excesses of power. Tinkering with ways to reduce those two isn't a bad idea, but if the administration is reform minded they will have to do more.



*That, and maybe they've accepted it's too late anyway to reverse the trend entirely... France is the only country where a late encouragement to give birth has worked, I think.

[jaichind]

The one child policy should have been changed back in the 1990s.  Every time I visit Mainland China I make this clear to anyone that brings up the topic of public policy starting back in the late 1980s.  Even those that were seemed to have objections to aspects of the CCP seems to support the One Child policy.  Good they are starting to change this.  Way too late in my view.