What 2000 states are you most worried about your canidate losing?

[??????????]

Union brainwashing. The Unions tell them they are for them and really are not. Unions are the most outdated organization in the U.S. right now.

Don't evn try to tell me that the GOP will stand up for the coal miners.  That's a joke.

Neither party will. The Unions just use and abuse their members. Legalized mafia.

[© tweed]

Union brainwashing. The Unions tell them they are for them and really are not. Unions are the most outdated organization in the U.S. right now.

Don't evn try to tell me that the GOP will stand up for the coal miners.  That's a joke.

Neither party will. The Unions just use and abuse their members. Legalized mafia.

Dems will stand up for the unions before the GOP will.  You think Gephardt wouldn't have stood up for them?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If I were rooting for Bush I'd be worried about the following three states:

1. Florida
2. Florida
3. Florida

I think Bush can win without Ohio, but I don't think he'll win without Florida.  I would have said Missouri earlier on, but that seems pretty solidly Bush these days.

If I were rooting for Kerry I'd be worried about:

1. Pennsylvania
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin

If he loses any of these three, it's probably over for Kerry.  Big Ten country is going to make or break it for him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Over 60% of West Virginians can't be wrong!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Union brainwashing. The Unions tell them they are for them and really are not. Unions are the most outdated organization in the U.S. right now.

Don't evn try to tell me that the GOP will stand up for the coal miners.  That's a joke.

Neither party will. The Unions just use and abuse their members. Legalized mafia.

Dems will stand up for the unions before the GOP will.  You think Gephardt wouldn't have stood up for them?

Sure, the Dems will stand up for the unions.  But for some reason you seem to equate that with standing up for the workers.

The unions act in the best interest of the unions.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Not even that - the Unions act in the best interest of Union bosses.

[angus]

Union brainwashing. The Unions tell them they are for them and really are not. Unions are the most outdated organization in the U.S. right now.

Don't evn try to tell me that the GOP will stand up for the coal miners.  That's a joke.

Neither party will. The Unions just use and abuse their members. Legalized mafia.

Dems will stand up for the unions before the GOP will.  You think Gephardt wouldn't have stood up for them?

They sure as hell didn't stand up for Gephardt this year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not even that - the Unions act in the best interest of Union bosses.

Although this is the case with some Union bosses (*cough* Bob Crow *cough*)... most aren't that bad...
And Unions are needed. I admit the US Labor movement isn't exactly on the right side of competent... it's better than nothing (ala China).

[classical liberal]

Until China unionizes, manufacturing jobs won't come back here.  However, by the time China unionizes everything will be mechanized so the jobs won't really come home; the only jobs that will be left are those that require creativity/ingenuity, and require college education or vocational training.

I'm most worried eabout OH and VA.  To a lesser extent WV and NH but we don't need those: the House would select Bush over Kerry anyday.  The entire "North" only elects any Republicans because we still are fiscally conservative.  However, Bush isn't so he may loose the three northern states on that alone.  Virginia is pretty much MD and WV combined nowdays.  If Kerry takes WV he'll pobably take VA, he has no chance in MD.  Then we're screwed unless we take PA.  However the old conservative suburbs are trending Democratic after 30 years are GOP stringholds.  That's how MD, CA, NJ, etc switched.  If the process continues GA, NC, OH, IN, NV, and AZ will follow soon, but probably not till 08.

Our time of dominance in the Presidential arena is drwaing to a close, I just hope that we can squeeze out one last victory before the Dems take over.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Until China unionizes, manufacturing jobs won't come back here.  However, by the time China unionizes everything will be mechanized so the jobs won't really come home; the only jobs that will be left are those that require creativity/ingenuity, and require college education or vocational training.

I'm most worried eabout OH and VA.  To a lesser extent WV and NH but we don't need those: the House would select Bush over Kerry anyday.  The entire "North" only elects any Republicans because we still are fiscally conservative.  However, Bush isn't so he may loose the three northern states on that alone.  Virginia is pretty much MD and WV combined nowdays.  If Kerry takes WV he'll pobably take VA, he has no chance in MD.  Then we're screwed unless we take PA.  However the old conservative suburbs are trending Democratic after 30 years are GOP stringholds.  That's how MD, CA, NJ, etc switched.  If the process continues GA, NC, OH, IN, NV, and AZ will follow soon, but probably not till 08.

Our time of dominance in the Presidential arena is drwaing to a close, I just hope that we can squeeze out one last victory before the Dems take over.

The political trends in VA of late have been fascinating...the old Conservative Democrats are dying off and are being replaced, not by Republicans, but by Populist "Warner" Democrats. On it's own that would/should make VA competative in 2008/12... but at the same time the DC 'burbs, once a GOP stronghold, are switching to the Democrats

[angus]

warner embodies the worst possible combination.  economically populist, as well as authoritarian leftist.  very frustrating.  At least he's somewhat moderate on both counts.

[classical liberal]

Not just the DC suburbs.  All suburbs across the nation.  Bush won the Utah second with like 55%.  Regan won Salt Lake City with like 85%.  Same with the Nebraska second.  Same with the Kansas third, the Oklahoma second, and the Oklahoma third.  The Virginia first, second and tenth too.  In 15 years we've lost roughly 30% in all suburbs.  That's like 2% a year, 8% an election cycle.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not just the DC suburbs.  All suburbs across the nation.  Bush won the Utah second with like 55%.  Regan won Salt Lake City with like 85%.  Same with the Nebraska second.  Same with the Kansas third, the Oklahoma second, and the Oklahoma third.  The Virginia first, second and tenth too.  In 15 years we've lost roughly 30% in all suburbs.  That's like 2% a year, 8% an election cycle.

It's happening in the older, inner-suburbs (the same is happening the UK actually)... while outer-suburbs and semi-rural suburbs are still strongly conservative.

[classical liberal]

By all I meant all across the country, not everywhere withing 2 hours of a city.  By suburb I meant that the area is within an hour off-peak of the city's beltway/beltline/bypass/whatever.  Two to three counties out from the city line, no farther.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By all I meant all across the country, not everywhere withing 2 hours of a city.  By suburb I meant that the area is within an hour off-peak of the city's beltway/beltline/bypass/whatever.  Two to three counties out from the city line, no farther.

Ahh... I see what you mean now. Thanks

[bullmoose88]

Though, I wonder...how much is that due to the fact that the suburbs are becoming more Democratic (Northern suburbs, including DC, Southern Suburbs for the most part are more republican than the 80s) or the fact that the last few Republican candidates have either been further from center than the democrat (Reagan was a conservative, but Carter was a terrible president and Mondale was from the far far left).

I mean, should Guliani or a Ridge or a Pataki or a McCain get the nomination (not that they would) I think we'd see an electoral scenario more like the 1970s (namely 1976 or so) where the northern burbs come back to the GOP.


Lets not forget, in all of these suburbs, the GOP holds huge registration advantages, and continues to win almost every seat for state and local government (at least in my area, I assume similar trends [not the exact same) and still win the majority of suburban congressional seats, even when Bush loses those areas.


Its one of those two trends, I just can't tell which.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Virginian 'burb's are certainly trending Democrat (Fairfax voted for Warner)... though I think you might be right about the Philly 'burbs.

[bullmoose88]

Well I'm generalizing to all of the suburbs in general.

Warner ran a much better campaign than the Republican (Earley or something like that)--coupled with the fact that some of Gilmore's failed policies[every one has a few, but these hurt more] came back to bite the GOP...

I think if the GOP gets closer to the center than the dems, then you'll see the burbs flip back...certainly would happened if the dems nominated Kuchinich >P

But if the GOP were to nominate someone like Guliani in 08 or a Pataki (hypotheticals), then the northern burbs would come back to the fold. I think.

While party registration numbers may(I stress may) have changed, I don't think ideology has.

[ShapeShifter]

Penn state but then again, if we play our cards right, it shouldn't be a problem

[Michael Z]

Not even that - the Unions act in the best interest of Union bosses.

Although this is the case with some Union bosses (*cough* Bob Crow *cough*)... most aren't that bad...

Ugh. Don't get me started on Bob Crow...........

Seriously, show me one London commuter who doesn't hate that man's guts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not even that - the Unions act in the best interest of Union bosses.

Although this is the case with some Union bosses (*cough* Bob Crow *cough*)... most aren't that bad...

Ugh. Don't get me started on Bob Crow...........

Seriously, show me one London commuter who doesn't hate that man's guts.

"RMT... losing members, money, public support and now political influence"

I hate Bob Crow... but I live out in the Sticks so he can't hurt me...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well I'm generalizing to all of the suburbs in general.

Warner ran a much better campaign than the Republican (Earley or something like that)--coupled with the fact that some of Gilmore's failed policies[every one has a few, but these hurt more] came back to bite the GOP...

I think if the GOP gets closer to the center than the dems, then you'll see the burbs flip back...certainly would happened if the dems nominated Kuchinich >P

But if the GOP were to nominate someone like Guliani in 08 or a Pataki (hypotheticals), then the northern burbs would come back to the fold. I think.

While party registration numbers may(I stress may) have changed, I don't think ideology has.

Good points.
However unless the GOP changes direction, they are academic...
---
BTW Warner won in Lynchburg!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Until China unionizes, manufacturing jobs won't come back here.  However, by the time China unionizes everything will be mechanized so the jobs won't really come home; the only jobs that will be left are those that require creativity/ingenuity, and require college education or vocational training.

I'm most worried eabout OH and VA.  

Set your mind at ease about VA.  It's not in play.  I would worry about MO a lot sooner than I would worry about VA.

To a lesser extent WV and NH but we don't need those: the House would select Bush over Kerry anyday.  

The 12th Amendment isn't quite clear.  Is it the old House or the new House that gets to pick the President?

There are a lot of close House races this year.  It's possible that the Republicans won't control the necessary 26 state delegations.  There are about 15 "locks" and maybe 5 more that are pretty safely in Republican hands.  But they'll need some close races to go their way to control the Presidential vote.  Otherwise, whoever the Senate picks as VP becomes President.  Meaning, in the case of a Republican-controlled Senate: President Cheney!

The entire "North" only elects any Republicans because we still are fiscally conservative.  However, Bush isn't so he may loose the three northern states on that alone.  

There are two types of fiscal conservatives: those who favor balancing the budget, and those who favor low taxes.  Bush will do very well among tax hawks.

Virginia is pretty much MD and WV combined nowdays.  

Kinda, except most of VA is traditional conservative South, whereas that only accounts for three or four counties in MD.  Most of MD is urban/suburban Northeast Corridor, whereas that only accounts for the DC suburban portion of VA.

If Kerry takes WV he'll pobably take VA,

Not at all true.  The WV vote will be tied to jobs and unions.  The VA vote will be a much greater diversity of issues.

he has no chance in MD.  Then we're screwed unless we take PA.  However the old conservative suburbs are trending Democratic after 30 years are GOP stringholds.  

That has more to do with the Democrats moderating their message than with the suburbs changing their ideology.  It also has to do with job losses - which also has nothing to do with ideology.  The suburbs aren't "getting more liberal," as far as I can see.

That's how MD, CA, NJ, etc switched.  If the process continues GA, NC, OH, IN, NV, and AZ will follow soon, but probably not till 08.

Our time of dominance in the Presidential arena is drwaing to a close, I just hope that we can squeeze out one last victory before the Dems take over.

I see the opposite.  I see that the only way Democrats can make themselves palatable enough to win the White House is by steering to the center.  When was the last true liberal to occupy the White House?  You have to go back to LBJ.  When was the last northern, rank-and-file liberal Democrat President?  JFK.  (LBJ, though he was very liberal, came out of the wing of the Democrats that is now the Southern wing of the Republicans.)  In the last nine presidential elections, conservative Republicans have won 3 (80, 84, 00), moderate Republicans have won 3 (68, 72, 88), and moderate Democrats have won 3 (76, 92, 96).  Of those three Democrat victories, one was against an unelected VP handpicked by a President who was impeached and resigned in disgrace, one was a 43% popular plurality, with a 3rd party candidate who took away the conservative vote, and one was against a very weak Republican challenger to an incumbent.

If Kerry wins in 2004, it will only be because we have a President who is utterly reviled by about 40% of the country, AND an economy that has bled jobs over the course of his administration (whether or not it's his fault).  It does not represent Republican weakness.  If anything, with all of the hatred of Bush, and the high joblessness, this *should* be a Kerry landslide.  The fact that it is a battle goes to show how weak the Democrats are in Presidential politics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Virginia's changed. The old Conservative Democrats in Southern VA are dying off and are being replaced by Populist "Warner" Democrats who are less likely to vote split.
Meanwhile the DC suburbs keep growing and keep growing more liberal.
---
In 2001, Warner won in Lynchburg. That's proof enough that VA has changed.

[??????????]

When a state like Virginia goes for a liberal all the rest of us in the South should start to worry.