GA-Anzalone Lizst Grove: Deal +8

[Adam Griffin]

Poll:

Deal: 44%
Carter: 36%

Link:
http://images.politico.com/global/2013/11/13/georgia_poll.html
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/jason-carter-georgia-governor-race-99781.html

[Adam Griffin]

DGA/DPG commissioned poll. I was a bit down about these numbers at first, until I read this:

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[pbrower2a]

Governor Deal is in a weak spot. He needs very weak opposition to win re-election. That cannot be assured.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the Dems need Ga for the tiebreaker in the Sen, then Deal can be in serious trouble, should there be a runoff. But I don't see the Pubs losing before we win Co. A must win in Co takes precedent over Ga.

[Adam Griffin]

If the Dems need Ga for the tiebreaker in the Sen, then Deal can be in serious trouble, should there be a runoff. But I don't see the Pubs losing before we win Co. A must win in Co takes precedent over Ga.

I highly doubt that even with DNC/DSCC support converging upon the state that we could win any statewide office in a run-off right now. Democrats could have very well picked up another Senator in the December 2008 runoff but Obama didn't even bother campaigning for Martin. Carter (and Nunn) will need to beat Deal (and Broun) by at least two points in the general in order to have a realistic shot of winning.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I get the sense both races will be heartbreakers for red-avatars on election night. We're so close to reaping the rewards of Georgia's demographic transition but the reality is that too many voters are inelastic R-leaners.

[badgate]

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[/quote]


I'm confused by this part. Carter loses votes if he gets a higher percentage of African American votes?

[ElectionsGuy]

Governor Deal is in a weak spot. He needs very weak opposition to win re-election. That cannot be assured.

Carter is a pretty strong candidate, don't you think? Deal doesn't need weak opposition, he just needs the usual inelastic white voters republicans always get at the end and he'll likely survive. (Especially if he is leading in the polls with all the controversy going on now).

[Adam Griffin]

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I'm confused by this part. Carter loses votes if he gets a higher percentage of African American votes?

It's worded weirdly, but no. They're saying that based on historical performance, Carter should get 90% of the black vote; he currently has 70% in this poll with 20% of the black electorate "undecided". Blacks will make up around 30% of the electorate and with a twenty point increase (from 70% to 90%), that equals roughly 6 points (36% + 6% = 42%).

[Person Man]

It would really suck if  GA was an anti  MI. Even NJ, PA and MN surprises down ticket.

[badgate]

Thank you, Griffin.


Really hoping PPP polls Georgia in the next two weeks. I'd like to see their results