IL gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Paul Vallas, reformer picked as Quinn's running mate: http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/23619554-418/paul-vallas-tapped-to-be-pat-quinns-running-mate.html

[Flake]

Quinn got even worse...

[Vosem]

I think a reasoned argument could be made this is actually a better pickup opportunity than Arkansas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Term limits are on the ballot and Madigan is gonna be the nominee in 2018. Schneider is the only other Dem that can possibly lose in 2014. Cut loses until forthcoming 2016 and 2018 elections.

[Obscure]

I think Quinn's on his way out. Let's not forget how narrow of a margin he won by in 2010. Not to mention he hasn't really done anything plausible in his three years as governor. Chicago is still the murder capital of the United States. But then again, electing a Republican governor won't change much unless the state senate and assembly paint a redder picture in 2014.

[sg0508]

Is it fair to say that Jim Edgar was actually the last successful governor in IL? The trainwreck in that statehouse for the past 15 years is beyond comical.  What the hell is going on there and both parties are guilty of it?

[LeBron]

I think a reasoned argument could be made this is actually a better pickup opportunity than Arkansas.

No chance. Republicans have a better chance here than in Connecticut, but Arkansas is a better chance for a GOP pickup than Illinois. Putting aside how Democratic the state of Illinois is, he'll be on the ballot with Dick Durbin which could boost some votes for Gov. Quinn.

And guys, keep in mind the last polling done for the 2014 gubernatorial race was exactly ONE YEAR ago. It showed Rutherford winning the primary and having an only 4 point lead over Quinn, so God knows what Illinoisans would say now in regards to Quinn/Rutherford, Quinn/Dillard or Quinn/Brady.

[muon2]

Many pundits in IL are seeing this pick as preparation for a general election against Rauner. The Lt Gov has little power in IL, but Vallas' background would counter a large part of Rauner's platform of fiscal and educational reform.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have two union bosses down there. Cullerton who represents the younger union workers and Madigan who represent the pension unions, older workers. It was up to Lisa, Madigan's stepdaughter to unite them. But instead want to run for future office instead.

[ill ind]

  I believe Muon hit this right on the head.  Quinn anticipates running aginst Bruce Rauner in the general election and picked someone known as an education reformer to counter one of Rauner's main arguments.
  Quinn is a whole lot more adept at politics than most give him credit for.  Underestimate him at your own peril!!  (Not to mention the guy must have a horsehoe crammed up his aft end given all the lucky political breaks he's gotten)


  Ill-Ind

[Mr. Illini]

My vote next November will be cast so unenthusiastically. No way will I vote for a Bill Brady. I would consider voting for Rutherford, maybe even Rauner. Probably not Dillard. Most likely will end up going for Quinn, though. T'will be such an apathetic vote cast, though.

[sg0508]

Is there any "growth" whatsoever in IL, or is it slowly becoming another MI? The whole Rust Belt appears to be dying and that's not going to help the economic interests of anyone up there. 

It just seems like IL continues to pump out unsuccessful politicians, particularly governors.  Durbin has been around since '97, but other than that (and Obama of course as president), it's been a nightmare.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The teachers union have been supporting party bosses up here to our detriment we got stuck with Quinn and Blago, although they haven't yet supported Quinn this time around. Leaving people like Dan Hynes out of govt.

[muon2]

Is there any "growth" whatsoever in IL, or is it slowly becoming another MI? The whole Rust Belt appears to be dying and that's not going to help the economic interests of anyone up there. 

Estimates are that IL is growing at about 0.13% per year, well below the national average of 0.74%. IL is better than the nearly flat population in MI and OH, and slightly less than PA (0.20%).
 

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Mark Kirk made a successful move from House to Senate and might be more prominent but for his stroke last year. GOP Rep LaHood retired and took a cabinet post with Obama. Roskam became Chief Deputy Whip in only his third term. Hastert was the longest serving GOP Speaker. I'd certainly count those as successful.

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK, can someone explain to me why Illinois Democrats are so reluctant to challenge such a weak governor as Quinn? It seems to me that he has pissed so many people off that a moderately competent state legislator could comfortably dispatch him in a primary. 

[muon2]

OK, can someone explain to me why Illinois Democrats are so reluctant to challenge such a weak governor as Quinn? It seems to me that he has pissed so many people off that a moderately competent state legislator could comfortably dispatch him in a primary. 

State Sen Raoul was touted to be that type of challenger this summer, and then figured on the short list to be Quinn's LG. The IL Dem party has a high degree of hierarchical control and spending money on expensive primaries is not something they like to do.

[ill ind]

  The answer why nobody challenges Quinn is simple: Michael J. Madigan.  As chairman of the State Democratic party he has stated publicly that he will support an incumbent governor for reelection.  Somewhere there is a quote where he stated that the last time he supported a challenger to the sitting governor in a primary (Michael J. Howlett knocking off incumbent Dan Walker in the 1976 Democratic primary) he got stuck with 30 years of uninterupted Republican governors, so he would never make that move again.
  Madigan controls some pretty powerful purse strings when it comes to legislative races, so very few sitting legislators are willing to publicly stand up to him.

  Quinn's favorability ratings are right about the same as they were when he got reelected in 2010.  Besides he hasn't gone to jail which is more than we've gotten out of the last 2 governors.


Ill_Ind

[Miles]

We Ask America is out with a poll of the Republican side:

Brady - 25%
Rutherford - 18%
Dillard - 14%
Rauner - 11%

[windjammer]

We Ask America is out with a poll of the Republican side:

Brady - 25%
Rutherford - 18%
Dillard - 14%
Rauner - 11%

Brady is a crazy nut, isn't he?

[Franzl]

We Ask America is out with a poll of the Republican side:

Brady - 25%
Rutherford - 18%
Dillard - 14%
Rauner - 11%

Brady is a crazy nut, isn't he?

That's a good description.

[Tender Branson]

We Ask America is out with a poll of the Republican side:

Brady - 25%
Rutherford - 18%
Dillard - 14%
Rauner - 11%

Brady is a crazy nut, isn't he?

That's a good description.

Besides he already lost in 2010.

So why should he win next year ?

[ill ind]

  The polling so far only sees name recognition.  As the 2010 candidate Brady has the most name recognition of any of the 4.  Nobody outside of us political junkies have given this race a whole lot of thought.
  The Bears, the weather, holiday shopping and a myriad of other things are more important than the 2014 Il Gubernatorial GOP Primary at this point.

Ill_Ind

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We Ask America is out with a poll of the Republican side:

Brady - 25%
Rutherford - 18%
Dillard - 14%
Rauner - 11%

Brady is a crazy nut, isn't he?

That's a good description.

Besides he already lost in 2010.

So why should he win next year ?

Topinka was George Ryan's successor, she danced the polka with hm. Jim Ryan was attorney General under George as well. And Ryan was Edgar's Secretary of State. There is no obvious successor in the GOP party since George Ryan. So the extremist is winning.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

We Ask America is out with a poll of the Republican side:

Brady - 25%
Rutherford - 18%
Dillard - 14%
Rauner - 11%

I hope Rutherford can pull this out, Quinn is awful but Brady won't win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are hoping for Brady.