New Jersey Exit Poll Comparisons

[ElectionsGuy]

Comparing 2013 Gubernatorial election to 2012 Presidential Election:

Gender

Male (46%): 63% Christie, 35% Buono
Female (54%): 57% Christie, 42% Buono

vs.

Male (47%): 55% Obama, 43% Romney
Female (53%): 62% Obama, 38% Romney

Age

18-29 (10%): 51% Buono, 49% Christie
30-44 (21%): 53% Christie, 45% Buono
45-64 (47%): 62% Christie, 36% Buono
65+ (22%): 66% Christie, 33% Buono

vs.

18-29 (16%): 63% Obama, 36% Romney
30-44 (24%): 59% Obama, 40% Romney
34-64 (45%): 60% Obama, 39% Romney
65+ (15%): 52% Romney, 48% Obama

Race

White (72%): 70% Christie, 29% Buono
Black (15%): 78% Buono, 21% Christie
Latino (9%): 51% Christie, 45% Buono

vs.

White (67%): 56% Romney, 43% Obama
Black (18%): 96% Obama, 4% Romney

Ideology

Liberal (25%): 67% Buono, 31% Christie
Moderate (49%): 61% Christie, 37% Buono
Conservative (26%): 86% Christie, 13% Buono

vs.

Liberal (27%): 89% Obama, 10% Romney
Moderate (48%): 60% Obama, 39% Romney
Conservative (25%): 76% Romney, 22% Obama

Party ID

Democratic (40%): 66% Buono, 32% Christie
Republican (28%): 93% Christie, 6% Buono
Independent (31%): 66% Christie, 32% Buono

vs.

Democratic (44%): 95% Obama, 5% Romney
Republican (26%): 88% Romney, 11% Obama
Independent (30%): 49% Romney, 48% Obama

Education

High School Graduate (20%): 62% Christie, 36% Buono
Some College (24%): 62% Christie, 36% Buono
College Graduate (29%): 64% Christie, 35% Buono
Postgraduate (24%): 51% Christie, 48% Buono

vs.

High School Graduate (18%): 50% Obama, 46% Romney
Some College (27%): 56% Obama, 44% Romney
College Graduate (32%): 59% Obama, 40% Romney
Postgraduate (19%): 67% Obama, 33% Romney

Income

Under $50K (28%): 51% Christie, 46% Buono
$50K-$100K (33%): 59% Christie, 39% Buono
$100K+ (39%): 65% Christie, 34% Buono

vs.

Under $50K (26%): 63% Obama, 36% Romney
$50K-$100K (35%): 55% Obama, 45% Romney
$100K+ (38%): 61% Obama, 38% Romney

These are the main ones. Anyone have any good observations/conclusions?

[Sbane]

Well, for starters Christie did much, much better with those making 100k+. This makes sense to me personally since I would have voted for Christie even though I am a strong Obama supporter. And the key issues would be things like taxes, especially property taxes as well as reforming the education system. I like how he has gone after the teachers union. I also like how he stands up to the mouth breathing, bigoted, idiotic GOP base. The time that comes to mind is when he stood up for a muslim judge when some mouth breather was criticizing him. Anyways, he appeals well to the blue state middle class/upper middle class (I am from a wealthy suburb of San Francisco so you have an idea where I am coming from).

Also, it seems like the Latino (and probably the Asian vote as well) swung hard to Christie. Christie has basically shown the rest of the GOP how to win in this new America. I don't know whether the GOP will learn this lesson and just stick with their bigoted base. They need to expand beyond it and Christie did it perfectly.

[Nichlemn]

It appears to me that Christie most overperformed Romney among $100k+ earners (65% compared to 38%) and the least was with Republicans (93% compared to 88%).

The latter makes sense because there's a ceiling effect. The former is quite unexpected though - 100k voters are even swingier than "Moderates", and I would have thought billionaire businessman Romney would overperform with high income voters. Maybe high income voters were more likely to swayed by the Sandy response? But why?

[Sbane]

It appears to me that Christie most overperformed Romney among $100k+ earners (65% compared to 38%) and the least was with Republicans (93% compared to 88%).

The latter makes sense because there's a ceiling effect. The former is quite unexpected though - 100k voters are even swingier than "Moderates", and I would have thought billionaire businessman Romney would overperform with high income voters. Maybe high income voters were more likely to swayed by the Sandy response? But why?

It doesn't have anything to do with Sandy. First of all, the 100k+ vote is quite diverse in terms of race due to the proximity with NYC. Lots of Asians and a good amount of Hispanics and Blacks in that group. I think non-whites making more than 100k+ swung extremely hard towards Christie as opposed to Obama. Christie has shown the Republicans how to win in the future. Whether or not they adhere to that lesson is up to them.

[ElectionsGuy]

Here is the full PDF file on the New Jersey Governor Race Exit Polls by the way.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/nj.gov.exit.polls.1050p.110513.v2%5B1%5D.pdf