Did Southwest Virginia surprise you last night?

[TDAS04]

With the election results last night, Virginia became even more polarized geographically.  In the three statewide races, NOVA continued to trend left, while Democrats appear to have collapsed even further in the Southwest corner of the state.  McAuliffe even underperformed Deeds.

Particularly, does it surprise you that even EW Jackson, the black GOP Lt. Governor candidate, carried the region so overwhelmingly?  (He even outperformed Cuccenelli in some counties.)  It is a little bit interesting that in this area where Obama underperformed Kerry, voters solidly backed a black candidate over a fairly moderate white Democrat, but it doesn't surprise me too much that Jackson won the region.  Does Jackson's performance in SW VA provide credibility to the argument that Appalachia does not vote based on racism?  I suppose that even some racists in the area were eager to vote for a firebrand, Obama-bashing candidate, even if the candidate was black.

Also, does the failure of Democrats to contain losses in SW VA indicate that winning back West Virginia may not be even remotely easy for the party?

[DINGO Joe]

Just to be a broken record, coal in that region is doomed, not just vs Natural Gas or environmentalism but vs other coal.  When you're a one trick pony and your one trick is going away, what do you do?  Making reasonably choices is rarely at the top of the list.

[Miles]

All of southwest VA voted like this. I was shocked. 10 years ago, a white conservative Democrat like Northam would have been a perfect fit for this area. One of my least favorite things about election night 2013.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You need to consider why people vote the way that they do (I'm sometimes surprised that there's less of that sort of critical analysis of voter behavior here, but whatever). What reason did people in that area have for voting for the Democratic ticket? Once upon a time (not that long ago at all) political tradition would have been a reason, but that's all been pissed away in recent decades. Leaving...? You can't even file this one under the tired heading of 'voting against their interests' because the Virginia Democratic Party manifestly does not represent their interests.

[DINGO Joe]

You need to consider why people vote the way that they do (I'm sometimes surprised that there's less of that sort of critical analysis of voter behavior here, but whatever). What reason did people in that area have for voting for the Democratic ticket? Once upon a time (not that long ago at all) political tradition would have been a reason, but that's all been pissed away in recent decades. Leaving...? You can't even file this one under the tired heading of 'voting against their interests' because the Virginia Democratic Party manifestly does not represent their interests.

And of course the Republicans don't either, look up any groundbreaking for a NG plant in VA in the last 4 years and McDonnell would be there touting clean burning NG.  He'd give lip service to the importance of coal (blah blah blah) but the fact is that where people live NOVA, Tidewater people given a choice want NG over coal.  Closing the coal plant in Arlington and building a big NG plant in Front Royal is popular.  Closing a coal plant in the Tidewater and building a big NG plant is popular.  Coal is only popular where there are coal miners.  Republicans (and Manchin) will still lie to them so they'll believe the lie.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

With the election results last night, Virginia became even more polarized geographically.  In the three statewide races, NOVA continued to trend left, while Democrats appear to have collapsed even further in the Southwest corner of the state.  McAuliffe even underperformed Deeds.

Particularly, does it surprise you that even EW Jackson, the black GOP Lt. Governor candidate, carried the region so overwhelmingly?  (He even outperformed Cuccenelli in some counties.)  It is a little bit interesting that in this area where Obama underperformed Kerry, voters solidly backed a black candidate over a fairly moderate white Democrat, but it doesn't surprise me too much that Jackson won the region.  Does Jackson's performance in SW VA provide credibility to the argument that Appalachia does not vote based on racism?  I suppose that even some racists in the area were eager to vote for a firebrand, Obama-bashing candidate, even if the candidate was black.

Also, does the failure of Democrats to contain losses in SW VA indicate that winning back West Virginia may not be even remotely easy for the party?

No, I wasn't surprised.  Just a little surprised Jackson did so well there, but I was surprised he didn't fall further behind Cuccinelli statewide.  The racism angle has certainly been overblown when it comes to the vote in SW, considering Mark Warner is the only gubernatorial candidate since 1989 to improve on Doug Wilder's performance there that year.  McAuliffe didn't give them any reason to vote for him in terms of coal, guns, or a campaign based largely on liberal social causes.  And then most folks just voted for the same party on the other statewide offices.

[Miles]

The swing map for the southwest:

[Skill and Chance]

Not really, because McAuliffe is basically a liberal Romney- i.e. the worst possible fit for this region.  I think this also suggests that Obama's economic populism helped him save face in some rural areas last year and that generic Dems still have further to fall in the countryside.  McAuliffe probably couldn't win Iowa for example.  VA is changing enough that this won't matter, but it could spell serious trouble in PA.  I would not be surprised if WV is 80R/20D in the 2020's, along with Appalachia in general.

[Indy Texas]

Not really, because McAuliffe is basically a liberal Romney- i.e. the worst possible fit for this region.  I think this also suggests that Obama's economic populism helped him save face in some rural areas last year and that generic Dems still have further to fall in the countryside.  McAuliffe probably couldn't win Iowa for example.  VA is changing enough that this won't matter, but it could spell serious trouble in PA.  I would not be surprised if WV is 80R/20D in the 2020's, along with Appalachia in general.

That's a bit extreme. Has any presidential candidate from either party managed to crack 80% of the vote since pre-1950s Democrats in the South? LBJ didn't. Nixon didn't. Reagan didn't.

[Skill and Chance]

Not really, because McAuliffe is basically a liberal Romney- i.e. the worst possible fit for this region.  I think this also suggests that Obama's economic populism helped him save face in some rural areas last year and that generic Dems still have further to fall in the countryside.  McAuliffe probably couldn't win Iowa for example.  VA is changing enough that this won't matter, but it could spell serious trouble in PA.  I would not be surprised if WV is 80R/20D in the 2020's, along with Appalachia in general.

That's a bit extreme. Has any presidential candidate from either party managed to crack 80% of the vote since pre-1950s Democrats in the South? LBJ didn't. Nixon didn't. Reagan didn't.

LBJ in 1964 did it in MA and RI.  He cracked 85% in RI.

[Skill and Chance]

Also, there is DC, which is consistently >85% D every time and it is the size of a small state.  Unless poor rural voters somehow fall in love with Obamacare, there is nothing to stop WV from becoming reverse DC.

[Bacon King]

I don't think it's a big deal that Deeds performed better than McAuliffe considering Deeds is from that part of the state

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think it's a big deal that Deeds performed better than McAuliffe considering Deeds is from that part of the state

In most of VA-09, Obama (in 2012) performed better than McAuliffe.  That is a big deal.

[Miles]

I don't think it's a big deal that Deeds performed better than McAuliffe considering Deeds is from that part of the state

Deeds is from the north of the map I made. I was going to include Bath and Allegheny Counties, but those would have had a really severe home-county effect swing.

[barfbag]

With the election results last night, Virginia became even more polarized geographically.  In the three statewide races, NOVA continued to trend left, while Democrats appear to have collapsed even further in the Southwest corner of the state.  McAuliffe even underperformed Deeds.

Particularly, does it surprise you that even EW Jackson, the black GOP Lt. Governor candidate, carried the region so overwhelmingly?  (He even outperformed Cuccenelli in some counties.)  It is a little bit interesting that in this area where Obama underperformed Kerry, voters solidly backed a black candidate over a fairly moderate white Democrat, but it doesn't surprise me too much that Jackson won the region.  Does Jackson's performance in SW VA provide credibility to the argument that Appalachia does not vote based on racism?  I suppose that even some racists in the area were eager to vote for a firebrand, Obama-bashing candidate, even if the candidate was black.

Also, does the failure of Democrats to contain losses in SW VA indicate that winning back West Virginia may not be even remotely easy for the party?

That's stupid. ^ They want a Republican and don't care about race. Stop race baiting like everyone else in your party.

[Miles]

I don't think it's a big deal that Deeds performed better than McAuliffe considering Deeds is from that part of the state

In most of VA-09, Obama (in 2012) performed better than McAuliffe.  That is a big deal.

Yeah. Cuccinelli won CD9 61-32-7. With just the two-party vote, thats 66-34, compared to Romney's 64-36.

You gotta be wondering what Senator Phil Puckett is thinking. He's the last Democrat from this area. He was mostly unopposed until a 53-47 win in 2011. His district was 67% Romney, 66% Allen; his district voted like that this time, too:

Gov: 64-31 Cooch
LG: 64-36 Jackson
AG: 68-32 Obenshain

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think it's a big deal that Deeds performed better than McAuliffe considering Deeds is from that part of the state

In most of VA-09, Obama (in 2012) performed better than McAuliffe.  That is a big deal.

Yeah. Cuccinelli won CD9 61-32-7. With just the two-party vote, thats 66-34, compared to Romney's 64-36.

You gotta be wondering what Senator Phil Puckett is thinking. He's the last Democrat from this area. He was mostly unopposed until a 53-47 win in 2011. His district was 67% Romney, 66% Allen; his district voted like that this time, too:

Gov: 64-31 Cooch
LG: 64-36 Jackson
AG: 68-32 Obenshain

Well he is apparently 66, so I would guess he is almost certainly retiring in 2015.  And the seat will be gone for D's.  That would mean D's need a pick up in 2015 to maintain the 20-20 tie.  There are two R-held Obama seats: SD-10 (50.3% Obama 2012) or SD-07 in Virginia Beach (flipped from McCain to Obama, barely).  Did McAuliffe win either of these?

[Miles]

Well he is apparently 66, so I would guess he is almost certainly retiring in 2015.  And the seat will be gone for D's.  That would mean D's need a pick up in 2015 to maintain the 20-20 tie.  There are two R-held Obama seats: SD-10 (50.3% Obama 2012) or SD-07 in Virginia Beach (flipped from McCain to Obama, barely).  Did McAuliffe win either of these?

I got T-Mac winning both. He won SD10 46-42 but won SD7 by 7 votes.

[Skill and Chance]

Well he is apparently 66, so I would guess he is almost certainly retiring in 2015.  And the seat will be gone for D's.  That would mean D's need a pick up in 2015 to maintain the 20-20 tie.  There are two R-held Obama seats: SD-10 (50.3% Obama 2012) or SD-07 in Virginia Beach (flipped from McCain to Obama, barely).  Did McAuliffe win either of these?

I got T-Mac winning both. He won SD10 46-42 but won SD7 by 7 votes.

Very interesting.  SD-17 and SD-13 are the next most competitive.  What do you have for them?

[Miles]

I'll have to look at SD13 later because there was some precinct-renaming in those counties.

SD17 looks pretty rough though; Cooch won 50.4- 42.5.

[morgieb]

Jackson's performance surprises me, though I imagine there was a lot of straight-R tickets there.

But T-Mac is a terrible candidate for SW Virginia, whereas the Kook isn't an awful fit, so not that much up in the ticket. Though it does bust the theory of race being the main reason Obama did so bad there.

[Miles]

Cooch won SD13 by 3. I'm posting the numbers here because I clicked out of the workbook with the others without saving it

[Skill and Chance]

Cooch won SD13 by 3. I'm posting the numbers here because I clicked out of the workbook with the others without saving it

Wow, that was a 51% Romney/51% Allen seat last year!  And McAuliffe pulled to a statistical tie while doing worse than Obama statewide.  Ironically, SD-17 was D-held until 2011.  I don't think they will be getting that one back anytime soon.

Only other potentially interesting one is SD-20, also D-held until 2011 and <51%Romney in 2012.  I think turnout was very different there this year, though.

[barfbag]

This thread is very confusing to me.

[TDAS04]

Not really, because McAuliffe is basically a liberal Romney- i.e. the worst possible fit for this region.  I think this also suggests that Obama's economic populism helped him save face in some rural areas last year and that generic Dems still have further to fall in the countryside.  McAuliffe probably couldn't win Iowa for example.  VA is changing enough that this won't matter, but it could spell serious trouble in PA.  I would not be surprised if WV is 80R/20D in the 2020's, along with Appalachia in general.

I doubt it.  It happened in a couple of states in 1964, but not since then (other than in DC).  I don't see any state becoming 80%+ for one party today.  Vermont is pretty monolithic too (for the opposite party), but even it did not provide Obama with 70%.

I suppose that it would happen if West Virginia whites ended up voting like Deep South whites,  but I don't think it would go that far.