All Stand Down

[badgate]

Prologue



American History III (for High School Seniors): A History of American Politics and Civil Discourse
----------

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Election: 1988


 

Massachusetts Governor Mike Dukakis / Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen - 112
Vice President George H. W. Bush / Indiana Senator Dan Quayle - 426

George H. W. Bush was elected off a wave of sentiment for a third term for President Ronald Reagan. Over the course of his one term, he broke a major campaign promise not to raise taxes, and despite a decisive and successful Gulf War that liberated Kuwait, he was seen as distant and inattentive to the needs of average Americans.


Election: 1992

Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton / Tennessee Senator Al Gore, Jr. - 370
President George H. W. Bush / Vice President Dan Quayle - 168

Folksy Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton appealed to a wide swath of American voters that had once thought the Democratic Party had abandoned their needs. With Texas Independent Ross Perot playing spoiler, Clinton won the election of 1992 by a wide margin. Clinton's first two years were extremely productive to the newly refurbished Democrats; however they lost their House majority for the first time in decades in 1994. In 1995, after substantial proof surfaced that President Clinton used his influence as Governor of Arkansas in the Whitewater scandal, he was set to be impeached by both houses of Congress. However, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, who had his eyes on the White House in 1996, agreed to ensure that Clinton was acquitted if he did not run for reelection.


Election: 1996

Vice President Al Gore, Jr. / Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman - 280
Kansas Senator Bob Dole / Frmr. H.U.D. Secretary Jack Kemp - 249
Texas Independent Ross Perot / Pat Choate - 9

America, unlike Bob Dole, was not ready for a change. Stuck at 269, it was Gore's home state of Tennessee that put him over the top. Gore won his home state by making the case that Clinton was brought down by politics, not bad ethics. Ross Perot ran a tougher campaign, and came close to winning both Florida and Tennessee, which would have sent the election to Congress for the first time in over a century.


Election: 2000

President Al Gore, Jr. / Vice President Joe Lieberman - 267
Texas Governor George W. Bush / Frmr. Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney - 271

The 2000 Presidential election was one of the closest in American political history. The margin of victory in the deciding state, Florida, was under 500 votes. President Gore lost Florida due to interference by the U.S. Supreme Court, which ordered an end to the recount of votes and instructed Florida to certify the results as-is. Though the election was close, many were surprised that Gore almost won considering the Monica Lewinsky scandal that emerged in the fall of 1997. Lewinsky, who had been an intern in the Vice President's office during the 1995 shutdown, reportedly had sexual intercourse with Gore in the Naval Observatory multiple times and once in the Vice President's office on Capitol Hill. Tipper Gore became hugely popular by 2000 because she "stood by her man" (her words) and Gore's image was mostly rehabilitated by the time 2000 rolled around. However, the economy sagged and Gore's administration took the blame for bungling the budget surplus inherited from Clinton; pundits, however, put the blame on the Congressional Republicans for behavior that would later be cited as the first sign of the Tea Party Obstructionists that took hold of Congress in 2010. Regardless, on January 10, 2001, President Gore officially conceded to the assumed President-elect George W. Bush after two months of legal battles in Florida.







AUTHOR'S NOTE: This was all preamble to the meat of the TL. You can expect this to move faster and not have as many details or images as my previous TLs. Each installment of the Fable series only covered 4 years. This TL will cover 36, in the same amount or less time.

[DKrol]

Ooo...this could be interesting.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Coolio, bro.

[badgate]

The preview has been replaced with the full Prologue.

[badgate]

I: An Unfortunate Series of Events

Significant Events of George W. Bush’s First Term (2001-2002)

• 2001 - Congress passed the Bush Tax Cuts and achieved a $7 billion surplus in 2002
• 2001 - "No Child Left Behind," a bipartisan education reform package passed by a Ted Kenned-John Boehner coalition is signed into law; states have until 2003 to enact the law's provisions.
• 2001 - On September 11, two planes were hijacked and crashed into the World Trade Center. Another was crashed in to the Pentagon, while a fourth crashed in a field when passengers overtook the hijackers.
• 2002 - The war in Afghanistan commences, and Colin Powell testifies on Iraq before the U.N.
• 2002 - Osama bin Laden continues to elude American forces.
• 2002 Midterms - Republicans hold both houses of Congress.
• 2002 - After the midterm elections, the Bush Administration calls a lame duck session and the war in Iraq begins.

April 2, 2001 - Bush Signs Tax Cut Package


Dec. 17, 2002 - American Forces Invade Iraq


Significant Events of George W. Bush's First Term (2003-2004)

• 2003 - "Draft Clinton" campaign launches in an effort by Democrats to persuade former President Bill Clinton to run for a second term in 2004.
• 2003, February - President Bush delivers "Mission Accomplished" speech and delayed State of the Union address.
• 2003 - "No Child Left Behind" provisions take full effect.
• 2003 - New York Senator Daniel Moynihan passes away in office; NYC Mayor Hillary Rodham Clinton is appointed to the U.S. Senate.
• 2003 - Abu Ghraib controversy surfaces amid rising international doubt that there really were WMDs in Iraq.
• 2003 - International forces approve a peacekeeping force for the U.N. to establish stability and prop up a new government. There are calls on America to agree to join with the Peacekeeping force, but President Bush declines.
• 2003 - President Bush announces run for reelection, despite low approvals.
• 2003 - American forces exchange fire with U.N. Peacekeepers over control of Baghdad. Despite Republican control of Congress, the situation is so bad that President Bush is censured.
• 2004, January - Secretary of State Colin Powell resigns, publishes WashPo editorial admitting the administration's lies about Iraq.
• 2004, January - President Bush announces in a hastily arranged Oval Office address that he will not stand for reelection.

April 12, 2003 - Mayor Hillary Rodham Clinton is nominated to fill New York's vacant U.S. Senate seat.


January 12, 2004 - President George W. Bush ends reelection campaign.

Up Next: The 2004 primaries!

[badgate]

II: Democratic Primary

December 2003 - Former President Bill Clinton firmly puts to rest rumors that he will run for President again.

Presidential Contenders as of January 1, 2004

• Former Vice President Joe Lieberman
• Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
• North Carolina Senator John Edwards
• Vermont Governor Howard Dean

Iowa
John Kerry - 38%
John Edwards - 32%
Howard Dean 18%
Joe Lieberman 11%


New Hampshire
John Kerry - 38%
Joe Lieberman - 26%
Howard Dean - 25%
John Edwards - 11%


—Joe Lieberman ends presidential campaign, endorses John Kerry
—Howard Dean ends presidential campaign, endorses John Kerry


South Carolina
John Edwards - 56%
John Kerry - 41%


Michigan, Washington, Maine, Tennessee, Washington, D.C., Nevada, Wisconsin, Hawaii
John Kerry


Utah, Idaho, North Carolina
John Edwards



March, 2004 - Massachusetts Senator John Kerry becomes presumptive Democratic nominee for President.



July, 2004 - Presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry announces former rival Senator John Edwards as Veep pick.



July, 2004 - Illinois State Senator Barack Obama delivers DNC Keynote address.

[badgate]

III: Republican Primary

January, 2004 - Vice President Dick Cheney jumps into Presidential field.

January, 2004 - The primary schedule for the Republican Presidential nomination was pushed back to give contenders time to announce and campaign in the first two states. Only Arizona Senator John McCain and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have entered the race (along with a few of 2000’s has-beens).

Presidential Contenders as of February 1, 2004

• Vice President Dick Cheney
• Arizona Senator John McCain
• Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
• Virginia Commentator Pat Buchana
• Former Ambassador Alan Keyes

Iowa
Dick Cheney - 32%
John McCain - 28%
Mitt Romney - 20%
Pat Buchanan - 11%
Alan Keyes - 9%

—Pat Buchanan ends presidential campaign, endorses Dick Cheney.
—Alan Keyes ends presidential campaign, endorses John McCain.


New Hampshire
John McCain - 41%
Dick Cheney - 33%
Mitt Romney - 26%


South Carolina
John McCain - 36%
Dick Cheney - 35%
Mitt Romney - 29%

—Mitt Romney ends presidential campaign, endorses John McCain.


Pre-Super Tuesday Wins

John McCain - Deleware, Michigan, Washington, North Dakota.
Dick Cheney - Puerto Rico, Virginia.



March, 2004 - John McCain and Dick Cheney meet for the pre-Super Tuesday debate.


Super Tuesday

John McCain - California, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont.
Dick Cheney - Georgia.

—Dick Cheney ends presidential campaign, endorses John McCain



March, 2004 - Arizona Senator John McCain becomes presumptive Republican nominee for President.


July, 2004 - McCain for America announced Oklahoma Congressman J.C. Watts as the Republican’s Vice Presidential nominee.


August, 2004 - McCain accepts nomination for President at RNC.

[Enderman]

'04 is definitely gonna be a hard time for youths that are voting...

[RedPrometheus]

Interesting timeline. Looking forward to the update!

[Peter the Lefty]

Oh boy.  This should be fun

[badgate]

IV: Three Guys Named John

Post-RNC Poll
Kerry/Edwards 40%
McCain/Watts 51%



August 15, 2004 - McCain premieres the Straight Talk Express on a cross-country tour highlighting his status as a veteran.


August 29, 2004 - Kerry promises to bring home 80% of American troops by 2007 in major speech at Brookings.


Significant Events of the 2004 Fall Campaign (September)

• Both campaigns invest heavily in Midwest as neither have candidates from the region.
• McCain releases first negative ad of the fall; calls Kerry a “Massachusetts liberal.”
• Many swing states to have ballot initiatives on same-sex marriage.
• McCain riding high after gay marriage statement: “Some things are more sacred than letting gay couples get a tax break.”
• Kerry premieres campaign slogan: Nation Building at Home
• McCain refuses to detail timetable for Iraq.
• Kerry denied communion in Wisconsin; priest cites Kerry’s support for “unlimited abortion and gay marriage.” Kerry issues strong statement opposing gay marriage but arguing for civil unions.
• McCain gaffes in town hall, says gay couples are “just playing house.”

First October Poll
Kerry/Edwards 44%
McCain/Watts 46%



October 5, 2004 - First presidential debate held on foreign policy.
Both Kerry and McCain mentioned their statuses as veterans in 2/3rds of their answers. McCain attacked Kerry for “stupid tactics,” saying promising any major movement in Iraq is “what the terrorists want.”

Significant Events of the 2004 Fall Campaign (October)

• First Presidential debate held.
• Swift Vets and POWs for Truth smear Kerry after first debate, claiming he has exaggerated his service in Vietnam and questioning the legitimacy of his combat medals awarded by the U.S. Navy.
• Kerry accuses McCain campaign of being behind “Swift Boat” attacks. McCain denies any association.
• Vice Presidential debate held, however most viewers change the channel within 20 minutes.
• http://youtu.be/_s71-Q2XBZg
• McCain endorsed by former Democratic Vice President Joe Lieberman.
• Kerry jokingly congratulates McCain for being endorsed by a “Connecticut liberal.”
• Second Presidential debate held on domestic policy, the focus of Kerry/Edwards’ “Nation Building at Home” slogan. Kerry is considered the winner by pundits but does not see a rise in the polls the following week.
• Seriously. http://youtu.be/_s71-Q2XBZg
• Osama bin Laden releases a video on October 27, taunting America for September 11 and President Bush for being "afraid" to lose reelection.

October 31 - Kerry and Edwards campaign their poor little hearts out.


November 1 - McCain's final message during the closing days of the campaign: Country First!


Final Pre-Election Poll
Kerry/Edwards 46%
McCain/Watts 50%












AUTHOR'S NOTE: Alternative title for this chapter: Three Johns and a Julius.

[badgate]

Hey guys while I was looking for that last McCain image I used (I sift through Google Images for all my pictures lol) I came across this hilariously dramatic campaign poster I thought y'all would enjoy:

[tmthforu94]

I like it! Surprised Bin Laden basically handed it to McCain, though.

[badgate]

I like it! Surprised Bin Laden basically handed it to McCain, though.

Up until this TL reaches the present day, I wanted to reinterpret some real world events (in the Prologue I did that with Whitewater, Monica Lewinsky, and the 2000 election controversies.) I didn't really consider not having the Bin Laden video.

[badgate]

V: Election Night 2004, pt. 1

7:00pm

Georgia for John McCain

Indiana for John McCain

Kentucky for John McCain

South Carolina for John McCain

Vermont for John Kerry

Virginia is too close to call

It's looking like it will be a good night for Arizona Senator John McCain, as polls have indicated during the final days of this campaign. The Republican ticket leads with 42 electoral votes to Kerry's 3. Only Virginia is outstanding, because of the growing population in the northern part of the state that is moving toward Democrats. However it looks like this will not be the year for Democrats to seize the Old Dominion; I'm just being told that sixteen minutes after polls closed we are able to call Virginia for John McCain.


Virginia for John McCain

7:30pm

North Carolina is too close to call

Ohio is too close to call

West Virginia for John McCain

Let's take a moment to look at the Senate, as we have some time before the 8 pm poll closings. Few are expecting a Democratic takeover of the upper chamber, but the outstanding question is where the numbers will stand at the end of the night. With John Edwards on the Democratic ticket, it looks like his seat will fall into Republican hands, along with South Carolina and Georgia. In Illinois, Democrats are set to gain a seat with relative ease. The states to watch for the rest of the night are Alaska, Colorado, Florida, and the home of Democrats' Senate Leader who is up for reelection in South Dakota.




8:00pm

Alabama for John McCain

Connecticut for John Kerry

Deleware for John Kerry

Florida is too close to call

Illinois for John Kerry

Maine (state-wide) for John Kerry

Maine (ME-1) for John Kerry

Maine (ME-2) is too close to call

Maryland for John Kerry

Massachusetts for John Kerry

Mississippi for John McCain

Missouri for John McCain

New Hampshire is too close to call

New Jersey is too close to call

Oklahoma for John McCain

Pennsylvania is too close to call

Rhode Island for John Kerry

Tennessee for John McCain

Washington, D.C. for John Kerry

Well now we're talking! Senator John McCain's electoral lead has jumped to 123 electoral votes. And we're also now able to call North Carolina for the Republicans and New Jersey for the Democrats. This is truly a historical night; America is hours away from electing its first African American to the executive branch. Congressman Watts will be a heartbeat away from the Presidency for the next four or eight years.

8:30pm

Arkansas for John McCain



Well we now have a new Senator-elect, Richard Burr, in North Carolina, as well as Senator-elect Isaakson in Georgia and Senator-elect DeMint in South Carolina. The House of Representatives also looks safe for the Republican party. Overall, tonight is a great night for the GOP. However we can now call Maine's second congressional district for Democrat John Kerry

[badgate]

VI: Election Night 2004, pt. 2

9:00pm

Arizona for John McCain

Colorado for John McCain

Kansas for John McCain

Louisiana for John McCain

Michigan is too close to call

Minnesota is too close to call

Nebraska (state-wide+congressional districts) for John McCain

New Mexico is too close to call

New York for John Kerry

South Dakota for John McCain

Texas for John McCain

Wisconsin is too close to call

Wyoming for John McCain

Senator John McCain is the first and-the way things are looking-possibly the only Presidential candidate to clear 200 electoral votes. As things currently stand, he is exactly at 200. John Kerry is only at 113. With the Senate race in South Dakota now closed, we have a tight race that will stretch past midnight. In Colorado, however, the Democratic Attorney General Ken Salazar is leading in the early precincts to report in. Our decision desk is confident calling Colorado the second pick up tonight for Senate Democrats. Oh...I'm now getting some grim news for the John Kerry campaign. New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida have all been called for John McCain. For such a large state that four years ago was the center of intense controversy, it is early to call the race there; can McCain's coattails in Florida keep the Democrats from a third pick up for their Senate minority?



10:00pm

Iowa is too close to call

Montana for John McCain

Nevada for John McCain

Utah for John McCain

Well Democrats can say goodbye to what would have been an excellent shot at the White House had Bush run for reelection. They can also say goodbye, officially, to Minority Leader Tom Daschle. In Florida, however, Betty Castor has pulled ahead. This could end up being the silver lining for Democrats, especially now that scandalized Louisiana Senator David Vitter has cleared the threshold to avoid a runoff election for his Senate seat. The race for the White House is not officially over. As it stands, John McCain has 249 where John Kerry is stuck at 113. I have just been handed a piece of paper that will give new juice to the Democrats. Congratulations, John Kerry, you've just secured Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Kerry is now at 155 electoral votes.

11:00pm

California for John Kerry

Hawaii for John Kerry

Idaho for John McCain

North Dakota for John McCain

Oregon for John Kerry

Washington for John Kerry

Well. John McCain leads with 256, and John Kerry has jumped up to 228 electoral votes, but it's possible that will be the highest he gets tonight. We can now call Ohio, and with it, the election, for Arizona Senator John McCain. The McCain/Watts ticket now stands at 276.

Final Map

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry / North Carolina Senator John Edwards - 232
Arizona Senator John McCain / Oklahoma Congressman J.C. Watts - 306

[badgate]

Presidents of the United States (1975-present)
39. James Earl Carter, Jr................1975-1981
40. Ronald Wilson Reagan..................1981 - 1989
41. George Herbert Walker Bush.........1989 - 1993
42. William Jefferson Clinton................1993 - 1997
43. Albert Arnold Gore, Jr....................1997 - 2001
44. George Walker Bush....................2001 - 2005
45. John Sidney McCain III................2005 - Present


Vice Presidents of the United States (1975 - Present)
42. Walter Frederick Mondale..........1975 - 1981
43. George Herbert Walker Bush..........1981 - 1989
44. James Danforth Quayle.................1989 - 1993
45. Albert Arnold Gore, Jr.....................1993 - 1997
46. Joseph Isadore Lieberman...............1997 - 2001
47. Richard Bruce Cheney...................2001 - 2005
48. Julius Ceaser Watts.......................2005 - Present

[Flake]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

All the Presidents from the U.S. from the late eighties are one termers and I don't know how to feel about that.

Great timeline though! Can't wait until the 2008 election!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

All the Presidents from the U.S. from the late eighties are one termers and I don't know how to feel about that.

That is the point of this timeline.

[badgate]

VI: President John McCain

John Sidney McCain III, 45th President of the United States


Julius Ceaser Watts, 48th Vice President of the United States


109th Congress
Senate
Republican - 54
Democrat - 45
Independent - 1 (Caucuses with Democrat Party)

House
Republican - 230
Democrat - 205

The Cabinet of President John McCain (2005-Present)

• Secretary of State - Condaleezza Rice (R-AL)
• Secretary of Defense - Joe Lieberman (I-CT)
• Attorney General - Judd Gregg (R-NH)
• Secretary of Treasury - Jamie Dimon (I-NY) (2005-2006); Jim DeMint (R-SC) (2006-Present)
• Secretary of Health & Human Services - Mike Leavitt (R-UT)
• Secretary of Labor - Elaine Chao (R-KY)
• Secretary of Education - Jeb Bush (R-FL)
• Secretary of Interior - Jari Askins (D-OK)
• Secretary of Agriculture - Sam Brownback (R-KS)
• Secretary of Housing & Urban Development - Steven Preston (R-D.C.)
• Secretary of Commerce - Carlos Guttierez (R-MI)
• Secretary of Energy - Samuel Bodman (R-IL)
• Secretary of Homeland Security - Peter King (R-NY)
• Secretary of Transportation - Mary Peters (R-AZ)
• Secretary of Veteran's Affairs - James Peake (R-MO)

-------------------------------------------------

Significant Events of John McCain III's First Term (2005-2006)

• 2005 - John S. McCain III is sworn in as President with a 64% approval rating.
• 2005 - President McCain announces Iraq Surge in Inaugural Address, promises full withdrawal by the end of his first term.
• 2005 - In State of the Union address, McCain proposes immigration reform and social security reform to the Republican congress.
• 2005 - Chief Justice Rehnquist resigns; McCain nominates Karen L. Henderson from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.
• 2005 - Hurricane Katrina devastates Mississippi and Louisiana.
  
  • Levees in New Orleans fail, resulting in major flooding & evacuations.
  • McCain: "Brown has my complete support & trust."
• 2005 - Record number of soldiers return home in coffins in September; highest monthly casualties since the Iraq war began in 2002.
• 2005 - The United States Senate confirms Karen L. Henderson to be Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.
• 2005 - Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, considered a close ally to President McCain, denounces the administration's Iraq surge on the floor of the Senate and again in a speech to protesters outside the White House ahead of McCain's 2006 State of the Union address.
• 2005 - In December, McCain's Social Security Reform Act fails in the Senate when Majority Leader Bill Frist is unable to get past a Democratic filibuster.
• 2006 - In State of the Union, McCain pushes for immigration reform bill by end of May. The address is panned for McCain's sidestepping of Iraq.
• 2006 - U.S. comes in 2nd overall at the 2006 Winter Olympics.
• 2006 - Iran backs out of uranium enrichment deal with Russia; McCain answer's reporters question saying "strikes [on Iran] are an open possibility."
  
  • McCain's approval drops 5 points after Sec. of Defense Lieberman says the President is considering a new "engagement" overseas with Iran.
• 2006 - Treasury Secretary Jamie Dimon resigns to return to JP Morgan Chase. President McCain nominates South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint to fill the post.
• 2006 - Conservative activists jam the switchboard in U.S. Capitol during a big vote on the Immigration bill. Ultimately the bill is abandoned by the further left and further right factions of the Senate and collapses.
• 2006 - Lebanon War ends after overwhelming vote at the U.N.
• 2006, Midterms - Democrats gain the House & Senate in biggest anti-incumbent midterm since 1994.
• 2006 - In December, President McCain suffers a damaging stroke leaving him temporarily unable to walk due to paralysis on one side of his body. His doctors say it will take him six months to fully recover and complete physical therapy.

March 30, 2005 - President McCain's friendship with his DoD Sec. Joe Lieberman becomes notorious.


August 30, 2005 - Hurricane Katrina devastates New Orleans, is seen as a management failure on part of McCain Administration.


November, 2005 - Senator Chuck Hagel delivers harsh questioning on Bush Admin. officials about the Iraq surge.

110th Congress
Senate
Republican - 48
Democrat - 51
Independent - 1 (Caucuses with Democrat Party)

House
Democrat - 234
Republican - 201

Significant Events of John McCain III's First Term (2007)

• 2007 - In unprecedented move, Vice President J.C. Watts is sent to deliver "this administration's" State of the Union address to Congress. Secretary of State Condaleezza Rice sits in the Vice President's customary chair during the speech. Since the President was not in the Capitol building, it was the first State of the Union to have a President's full cabinet present in decades.
• 2007 - President McCain vetoes expanded S-CHIP bill sent from new Democratic congress.
• 2007 - North Korea agrees to stop enriching uranium at one plant.
• 2007 - Virginia Tech massacre occurs in April. The Democratic-led Congress sends President McCain a gun safety bill that he signs after taking two days to think it over. Aside from the budget, it is the most substantial legislation President McCain has signed into law.
• 2007 - Reports leak that Cindy McCain has been talking to her husband about passing on reelection because of his health.
• 2007 - The final Harry Potter book is released.
• 2007 - Doctors announce McCain has completed his physical therapy but will never have full use of the left side of his body. Polls show Americans split 43%/43% on wether McCain should run again.
• 2007 - McCain has to cancel a private meeting with the Chinese president on his first post-stroke international trip. His staff tries to keep the story under wraps but Deputy Press Sec. Gentry Tolkein is found to be the leaker and subsequently fired.
• 2007 - Lieberman: "We probably can't extract our forces from Iraq for two more years."
• 2007 - McCain announces in August he will not run for reelection due to the burden on his health and his family asking him not to.
• 2007 - Supreme Court Associate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor announces her retirement, saying that she will stay on the Court until her replacement is confirmed. President McCain nominates Samuel Alito, despite his grim prospects for confirmation.
• 2007 - Vice President Watts announces campaign for President; only draws Ron Paul as a challenger.

January 20, 2007 - Vice President Julius Ceaser Watts delivers State of the Union address.


April 12, 2007 - McCain meets with representatives from N. Korea in the Oval Office (not pictured). Until July, McCain moved around via wheelchair whenever possible.

[OAM]

Very interesting.  Can't wait to see who the dems bring in 08!

[Peter the Lefty]

Very interesting.  Can't wait to see who the dems bring in 08!

Yeah, that should be an interesting primary fight.  I have a strange feeling that Obama will come unexpectedly close but not quite be able to beat Hillary.

[badgate]

Very interesting.  Can't wait to see who the dems bring in 08!

Yeah, that should be an interesting primary fight.  I have a strange feeling that Obama will come unexpectedly close but not quite be able to beat Hillary.

Loath as I am to spoil anything, I will say I'm changing up my format for the primaries to accommodate what I have planned for 2008. Don't count out the GOP primaries though, there could always be a late entry

[badgate]

VII: The Elephant in the Room

Vice President J.C. Watts remains relatively unopposed going into the Republican primaries this month. Only Texas Congressman Ron Paul has risen to challenge the Vice President. Paul is running a campaign of stark contrast with the McCain/Watts administration, on social issues and foreign policy. Paul has been hammering the administration mercilessly in both Iowa and New Hampshire on their failure to end the Iraq war. Though Paul has barely passed the 15% mark in national polls, some state polls have given Paul hope that he could come from behind in the two early states. It seems that Paul's campaign has inspired an interesting strain of populism that is infiltrating the primaries. Calling themselves the T.E.A. Party, these Paul supporters have been showing up at Watts rallies and chanting "Taxed enough already!" until Watts either acknowledges them or the campaign makes them leave. The chant has appeared at nearly every Paul rally since mid-December. Watts' campaign has gone easy on the Congressman, mostly because he is not considered a real or even credible threat. We won't know for sure, however, until Iowa and New Hampshire voters come to the polls and make that determination.

Republican Presidential Candidates
.....as of Jan. 1, 2008

• Vice President J.C. Watts
• Congressman Ron Paul

Iowa Caucuses
J.C. Watts - 56%
Ron Paul - 43%

Well that was closer than any of us expected. This should be a wake-up call to the Watts campaign. Congressman Ron Paul really is a threat to steal the momentum, favorability of the media, and even the nomination now that he made it much better than anyone predicted in Iowa. All eyes are on the one and only debate that has been scheduled only 72 hours before the New Hampshire primary polls close.

New Hampshire Primary
J.C. Watts - 49.5%
Ron Paul - 50.1%

Vice President Watts has been narrowly defeated in the New Hampshire primary. With Ron Paul's fundraising exploding after his better-than-expected in Iowa, his campaign has been raining ad-buys into the Granite State's media. Watts' campaign, which only had positive spots in the first states, only had time to get up one negative ad in New Hampshire.

Some pundits are pointing toward the news this week that the U.S. has officially entered a recession; the first official recession since the 1980s. President McCain has warned Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi that he will veto stimulus above $100 billion dollars, which economists of all stripes say will do nary a thing for the declining economy.

A source close to the Watts campaign says that a hard rain will fall on Paul in South Carolina. Watt's financial advantage, which he would prefer to hoard for the general election, will be partially liquidated to put up multiple attack ads against Paul. Particularly incendiary is an ad we were shown about Paul's former newsletter, which published surprisingly racist rhetoric against African-Americans. The ad shows the Vice President's likeness to give the inference that Paul's newsletter writings are about killing the Vice President himself. With the sizable African-American vote, this is sure to shore up any wavering African-American voters. The state party's tendency toward the establishment also gives the Vice President a built in firewall in the third primary state. This is the Vice President's best chance to wrap this up quickly with an overwhelming victory. Two weeks from now, we'll know if he's able to pull it off.

South Carolina Primary
J.C. Watts - 89%
Ron Paul - 9%


-- Ron Paul suspends his Presidential campaign; does not endorse V.P. Watts.

Vice President J.C. Watts - 49 States + D.C., Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa
Congressman Ron Paul - 1 State


70% - Watts won unopposed.
All contested states shaded to reflect election results.

[badgate]

I'm having a wee bit of writer's block with the Dem primaries, but here's the GOP one. I may be able to at least post part of the Democrats later tonight. Please read everything in this GOP primary post because it contains important plot information! (the recession)