Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In which way?

That it's so even - I wasn't expecting that and had to adjust the keys about a third of the way through.

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Do you have links to results inside cities?

[SPQR]

Quick update: media continues to push PD towards an alliance with M5S, while the M5S has started to hold informal talks about who will be Speaker of the House. Apparently they want that seat for themselves, leaving the Senate to Lega or PD (as a way to push them towards an alliance).
Franceschini, former Culture Minister and PD Secretary and amongst the main power holders in the party thanks to its subtle underground game, is apparently the main one in favour of PD joining (any) government, mostly because all of his power relies on him having anything to bargain from within the government.
Oh, there's also Emiliano, governor of Puglia, who goes on television every day saying that PD should ally with M5S. But he's completely nuts.

[EPG]

I don't want to coem across all PAN EUROPEAN TRENDS, but it is interesting to note that almost all cities - even ones considered quite borgeois and right-wing like Stockholm, Oslo, Milan, Rekjavik, Madrid - seem to be drifting left?

Is this missing the wood for the trees? Aren't they drifting far right, like the continent as a whole? Does M5S count as left-wing? (I also ask myself does LeU?)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, there's also Emiliano, governor of Puglia, who goes on television every day saying that PD should ally with M5S. But he's completely nuts.

I'm not fond of Emiliano for a variety of reasons, but at least he's one of the few people left in PD who isn't a stale, insipid hack.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[mappix]

YouTrend published this analysis: https://www.dropbox.com/s/sm30c8m96cio3qe/Dossier%20Politiche%202018.pdf?dl=0

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-19/italian-president-is-said-to-allow-months-for-coalition-talks

"Italy President Is Said to Allow Months for Coalition Talks"

[SPQR]

Part of the center-right coalition (Lega, FdI, candidate governor Parisi with his minuscule centrist party, and the far-right Amatrice mayor Pirozzi who had run on his own) want their newly-elected Lazio regional councillors to resign, in order for Zingaretti to be forced down.
This is because he is one short of a majority, so that if all of the opposition councillors were to resign, he would automatically forfeit. Pirozzi was supposed to be the one giving Zingaretti a majority in exchange for some assessorate, but he's now back in Salvini's field. After all, he only ran on his own and not with the center-right coalition because Berlusconi didn't want to leave the regional candidate to Salvini et al.
Pretty cheap tactic, but I am not sure that Zingaretti would be against it, given how badly he wants to become PD secretary.

[jaichind]

[Tender Branson]

It's pretty clear what Italians want:

A M5S-Lega government. They should start coalition talks quickly.

[EPG]

There is VERY little common ground. Just attitudinal. It's hard to govern on that basis because what can di Maio "give" in exchange for the "take", a flat tax?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fundamental to both parties core electorates is government money - where it is raised, how it is spent and (critically) where it is spent. The Lega has expanded (particularly in recent years) to broader right-wing politics and has chased very effectively a decent slice of the old AN vote, but it is still rooted in a backlash against high levels of personal taxation and transfer of public money towards the South. MS5 stands for whatever enters Grillo's head at any particular moment, but it's clear that a backlash against public austerity and the disappearance of redistribution as a major feature of government policy lies behind its extraordinary showing. And if you note these fact and then observe the support maps of both parties, you start to see why a government of the two would be... um... well... it would probably be quite entertaining, let's say. Which doesn't mean it won't happen o/c! Just that it would be a total fiasco.

[SPQR]

Lower taxes, more public expenditures, blame Europe when the inevitable crisis comes and then propose an anti-euro referendum.
The path's there to be walked...

[SPQR]

Anyhow I fully agree with Filuwaúrdjan on M5S.
Their program counts for nothing, they are ready to flip-flop from one day to the other on pretty much any issue (again, just think of the whole direct democracy farce. When is the last time a M5S leadership meeting was on online streaming?). So it's just a waste of time to study it in detail, it's a list of empty promises. I mean, a few articles came out showing how it was mostly the result of plagiarizing..it's only something they had to present but it's worthless.

What counts is the general attitude: we are like you, dear angry citizens, and we won't betray you like previous politicians have done. Trust us, and we'll protect you with the universal minimum income (the one M5S policy which sticks at all) and against the corrupted politicians and european technocrats, those scary immigrants, the technological revolution, globalization, eveything.


And since on the 4th of March those who chose Lega and M5S did so not because of this or that policy, but because of feelings (in particular, anger and fear), a M5S-Lega government would be the most natural outcome.

[jaichind]

Lower taxes, more public expenditures, blame Europe when the inevitable crisis comes and then propose an anti-euro referendum.
The path's there to be walked...

Yes.  Before the election I sensed that this was much more likely to take place then conventional wisdom.  Of course there is plenty of horsetrading to be done before we get to such a government. 

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/berlusconi-says-league-plotting-government-with-five-star

"Berlusconi Says League Plotting Government With Five Star"

It seems FI and Lega alliance is on the brink.

[Diouf]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/berlusconi-says-league-plotting-government-with-five-star

"Berlusconi Says League Plotting Government With Five Star"

It seems FI and Lega alliance is on the brink.

[DavidB.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/berlusconi-says-league-plotting-government-with-five-star

"Berlusconi Says League Plotting Government With Five Star"

It seems FI and Lega alliance is on the brink.

Wow, more of this please!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Tender Branson]

The latest Index Research poll for "La7":



Record highs for M5S + Lega.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is why we need a M5S-Lega government right now. Preventing it means only delaying the inevitable.

[Tender Branson]

This is why we need a M5S-Lega government right now. Preventing it means only delaying the inevitable.

That is true. Let them govern, let them pass some things that work out and let them make mistakes (and of course many of them will happen) ... and they will implode again.

Btw: have intense talks between the parties already started ?

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-24/row-in-italy-s-center-right-raises-risk-of-populist-government

Italy's Center-Right Patches Over Latest Clash on Populists

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[jaichind]

For AFP

Breakthrough in Italy parliament as speakers chosen

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Looks like de facto deal between M5S and Cener-Right bloc to split the heads of the lower and upper house.