Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

Five Star Gets 28.8-30.8% in Italy Lower House: La7 Poll
Five Star Gets 29-32% in Italy Senate: RAI Exit Poll
Democratic Party at 20.5-23.5% in Italy Senate: Exit Poll
Forza Italia at 13-16% in Italy Senate: RAI Exit Poll
League Gets 13-16% in Italy Senate: RAI Exit Poll

Five Star at 29.5-32.5% in Italy Lower House: RAI Exit Poll
Democratic Party at 20-23% in Italy Lower House: Exit Poll
Forza Italia at 12.5-15.5% in Italy Lower House: Exit Poll
League Gets 12.5-15.5% in Italy Lower House: RAI Exit Poll

[Oryxslayer]

Final turnout accourding to the official site appears to be 72.05%

[jaichind]

Looks like PD has avoided the worst case scenerio if exit polls right. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Final turnout accourding to the official site appears to be 72.05%

It's still based only on about 10% of precincts.

[Diouf]

M5S, Lega and FdL likely have a majority with these numbers. Is such a coalition possible?

When you look at voter's selfplacement, there is a relatively little overlap betweeen M5S and Lega. I know a single-axis political model does not explain everything in this day and age, but it does suggest that the vast bulk of M5S voters consider themselves leftwing, so a coalition with Lega and FdL will likely be problematic. M5S are also generally more divided across the spectrum than the other parteis, which is another reason why they are weary of any coalition.

[palandio]

SWG for La7:
M5S  29.8% (+-1.0)
FI     14.5% (+-1.0)
Lega 13.3% (+-1.0)
FdI     4.9% (+-0.5)
NcI     2.1% (+-0.3)
PD    22.0% (+-1.0)
+E      3.1% (+-0.3)
CiPo   0.7% (+-0.3)
Insieme 0.8% (+-0.3)
LeU    5.7% (+-0.5)

[Oryxslayer]

Oh, and here is something to remember, the exit polls were sh**t in 2013, but one way they were sh**t was overestimating M5S. So the end result might exactly match the final polls, if that bias remains true.

[jaichind]

Looks like the numbers are not there for a FI PD government.

[Andrea]

Rai had exit polls for Lombardia and Lazio regional elections

Lombardia: Fontana (CR) 38-42%. Gori (CL) at 31-35%
Lazio was close. Zingaretti (CL) 30-34%, Parisi (CR) 26-30%, Lombardi (M5S) 25-29% IIRC

[jaichind]

Berlusconi Bloc Gets 33.5-36.5% in Italy Senate: RAI Exit Poll
Center-Left Bloc Gets 25-28% in Italy Senate: Exit Poll
Berlusconi Bloc at 33-36% in Italy Lower House: RAI Poll
Center-Left Bloc at 24.5-27.5% in Italy Lower House: RAI Poll

[parochial boy]

What's the methodology for the exit poll? Anyone?

[Umengus]

all exit polls say the same...

[Oryxslayer]

So heres a question, how exactly do the results tabulation work? The main site has tabulated about 20% of the precincts(?) but, not counted their party vote. I guess it works like -> count votes, count the party results lower chamber, count the party results senate?

[Beezer]

M5S, Lega and FdL likely have a majority with these numbers. Is such a coalition possible?

When you look at voter's selfplacement, there is a relatively little overlap betweeen M5S and Lega. I know a single-axis political model does not explain everything in this day and age, but it does suggest that the vast bulk of M5S voters consider themselves leftwing, so a coalition with Lega and FdL will likely be problematic. M5S are also generally more divided across the spectrum than the other parteis, which is another reason why they are weary of any coalition.

Do you happen to have a source for that graph?

[palandio]

Mediaset:
M5S   31% (+-2)
FI      14% (+-2)
Lega 14% (+-2)
FdI      5% (+-1)
NcI      1.5% (+-1)
PD     19.5% (+-2)
+E       3.0% (+-1)
CiPo    0.7% (+-0.3%)
Insieme 0.8% (+-0.3%)
LeU     4% (+-1)

[jaichind]

Mediaset:
M5S   31% (+-2)
FI      14% (+-2)
Lega 14% (+-2)
FdI      5% (+-1)
NcI      1.5% (+-1)
PD     19.5% (+-2)
+E       3.0% (+-1)
CiPo    0.7% (+-0.3%)
Insieme 0.8% (+-0.3%)
LeU     4% (+-1)

Problem with this poll is sum of medium vote shares is around 94%.   Not sure others will get up to 6%

[Diouf]

M5S, Lega and FdL likely have a majority with these numbers. Is such a coalition possible?

When you look at voter's selfplacement, there is a relatively little overlap betweeen M5S and Lega. I know a single-axis political model does not explain everything in this day and age, but it does suggest that the vast bulk of M5S voters consider themselves leftwing, so a coalition with Lega and FdL will likely be problematic. M5S are also generally more divided across the spectrum than the other parteis, which is another reason why they are weary of any coalition.

Do you happen to have a source for that graph?

https://medium.com/@jamesdennison_7425/how-might-undecided-italians-vote-tomorrow-bd24c8670b1f

[Oryxslayer]

Mediaset:
M5S   31% (+-2)
FI      14% (+-2)
Lega 14% (+-2)
FdI      5% (+-1)
NcI      1.5% (+-1)
PD     19.5% (+-2)
+E       3.0% (+-1)
CiPo    0.7% (+-0.3%)
Insieme 0.8% (+-0.3%)
LeU     4% (+-1)

Problem with this poll is sum of medium vote shares is around 94%.   Not sure others will get up to 6%

Rai's had a high other vote, so 6% isn't out of the cards.

[Beezer]

https://medium.com/@jamesdennison_7425/how-might-undecided-italians-vote-tomorrow-bd24c8670b1f

Thanks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So heres a question, how exactly do the results tabulation work? The main site has tabulated about 20% of the precincts(?) but, not counted their party vote. I guess it works like -> count votes, count the party results lower chamber, count the party results senate?

They count the Senate first, actually.

[Diouf]

First senate result from tiny polling place in Lucca!

Centre-right 11 votes (FI 9, Lega 1, FdI 1)
M5S 8 votes
Centre-left 5 votes (PD 5)
Communist party 1 vote

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are 18-25 year olds still disenfranchised for the Senate? That would hurt the Stars right?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are 18-25 year olds still disenfranchised for the Senate?

Yup. I missed the cut by literally 22 days.

[Oryxslayer]

We are about halfway done counting the precincts, turnout at this time is 74.02% to 75.72 of 2013.

Notable changes:

Basilicata: 66.67 -> 69.26
Emilia Romagna: 81.24 -> 78.13
Molise: 77.35 ->70.88
Sicily: 66.19 -> 63.95
Trento: 81.95 -> 71.65

[windjammer]

Will 5 Stars movement-Lega du nord be possible?