Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/matteorenzi/status/805548385486929920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Based on this tweet i don't know what to think....

Translation:

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[Beezer]

Renzi needs a better emoji adviser.

[jaichind]

Marie Le Pen

The Italians repudiated the EU and Renzi. We must listen to this thirst for freedom of nations and protection! MLP #referendumcostituzionale

https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/statuses/805546765265018882

[jaichind]

Renzi speaking.

[jaichind]

It is around 59.3-41.7 for No with around 31% of the sections coming in with results.  I do not see how the results changes that much from here.

[jaichind]

Renzi resigns

[Mike88]

Stupid, stupid, stupid decision. Once again, a politician makes crap and runs away.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

My prediction: he'll be back.

[IceAgeComing]

Yet again we see another example of why a government staking its existence on a referendum result is a dumb thing to do

[pikachu]

So, my knowledge of Italian politics is very low, but is there likely to be an early GE now?

[DavidB.]

Of the 20 regions, it seems only Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany will be voting "yes".

Rome voting against by somewhat more than the national margin, Torino and Milano by 55-45 and Napoli by more than 70-30. Firenze voting "yes" by 57-43.

[jaichind]

Of the 20 regions, it seems only Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany will be voting "yes".

Rome voting against by somewhat more than the national margin, Torino and Milano by 55-45 and Napoli by more than 70-30. Firenze voting "yes" by 57-43.

If Italy leaves the EU under M5S will there be a movement in Trentino-Alto Adige to join Austria given today's election result in Austria?

[Mike88]

Let's see how the markets react to this. Hope they are as calm as they were when Trump won.

[jaichind]

M5S's Grillo is calling for snap elections.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So, my knowledge of Italian politics is very low, but is there likely to be an early GE now?

Almost certainly imo. Renzi will still control the PD, anf there is not even the remotest chance you could make a stable government without PD. I assume there will be a caretaker government and elextions in 2017, which I wouldn't be surprised if Renzi is favoured to come back in.

[Mike88]

Of the 20 regions, it seems only Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany will be voting "yes".

Rome voting against by somewhat more than the national margin, Torino and Milano by 55-45 and Napoli by more than 70-30. Firenze voting "yes" by 57-43.

If Italy leaves the EU under M5S will there be a movement in Trentino-Alto Adige to join Austria given today's election result in Austria?

Italy will not leave the EU. It's not worth thinking about it.

[jaichind]

Let's see how the markets react to this. Hope they are as calm as they were when Trump won.

EUR still down around 1% but is recovering from a steeper fall.  JPY, Gold and US treasuries up which is expected in a risk off situation.  Overall it is not that bad.  The markets has been expecting a No win for a while (perhaps not at this scale.)

[jaichind]

So, my knowledge of Italian politics is very low, but is there likely to be an early GE now?

Almost certainly imo. Renzi will still control the PD, anf there is not even the remotest chance you could make a stable government without PD. I assume there will be a caretaker government and elextions in 2017, which I wouldn't be surprised if Renzi is favoured to come back in.

But if the runoff between PD and M5S for the bonus seats is in favor of M5S which is what the current polling shows would not M5S then capture a lower house majority and the PM position.  Not clear which election law the Senate race will be using though.

[Mike88]

Let's see how the markets react to this. Hope they are as calm as they were when Trump won.

EUR still down around 1% but is recovering from a steeper fall.  JPY, Gold and US treasuries up which is expected in a risk off situation.  Overall it is not that bad.  The markets has been expecting a No win for a while (perhaps not at this scale.)

On a global scale, i'm convinced it will be just a bump, but i'm more worried about bonds, especially my country's bonds. If they pass 4% and stay there... God help us.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think this was the brave and right thing to do.

renzi did "occupy" the title or prime minister to achieve things.

if the people don't want to make italy more competetive and able to survive, it's their own decision.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So, my knowledge of Italian politics is very low, but is there likely to be an early GE now?

Almost certainly imo. Renzi will still control the PD, anf there is not even the remotest chance you could make a stable government without PD. I assume there will be a caretaker government and elextions in 2017, which I wouldn't be surprised if Renzi is favoured to come back in.

But if the runoff between PD and M5S for the bonus seats is in favor of M5S which is what the current polling shows would not M5S then capture a lower house majority and the PM position.  Not clear which election law the Senate race will be using though.

I mean, god knows nowadays, but I'm sceptical that will hold.

[Beezer]

i think this was the brave and right thing to do.

renzi did "occupy" the title or prime minister to achieve things.

if the people don't want to make italy more competetive and able to survive, it's their own decision.

Wasn't one of Renzi's more recent moves to increase pensions and lower the retirement age? Sounds like the guy was a real reformer...

[jaichind]

On a global scale, i'm convinced it will be just a bump, but i'm more worried about bonds, especially my country's bonds. If they pass 4% and stay there... God help us.

Portugal CDS have been steady for a while.  Main reason for increase in yields in Portugal gov debt has to do due to the Trump effect and the surge of the USD recently.  I doubt this will hurt the yields that much as the market already baked in a defeat for No.

[Mike88]

On a global scale, i'm convinced it will be just a bump, but i'm more worried about bonds, especially my country's bonds. If they pass 4% and stay there... God help us.

Portugal CDS have been steady for a while.  Main reason for increase in yields in Portugal gov debt has to do due to the Trump effect and the surge of the USD recently.  I doubt this will hurt the yields that much as the market already baked in a defeat for No.

They are steady but they are much higher than they were a year ago and any little shock could put them on the rise. Plus, this is high alert for the only credit agency who says we are not garbage.

[jaichind]

It is around 59.7-40.3 for No with around 88% of the sections coming in with results.