MI-Gov, MIRSNews: Snyder in the lead

[pbrower2a]

This polling firm had Obama and Romney tied last year... joke poll!

Why are all of the Michigan polling firms God awful?

Mackinac Institution, a right-wing think tank. 

[pbrower2a]

this race is likely r, it would proalby be safer if the michigan didnt bus in brown ones from nearby chicago to swing the election and do a motorcycle gang voter fraud and ask for free handouts, snyder is an ok governor, i like what he did with unions and other cry babies in michigan

The unions are going to have one big GOTV drive in Michigan. Snyder ran as a moderate and has gone far to the Right on reproductive rights as well. 2014 will have a vastly-different political climate from 2010.

The bridge is a good idea, and so is Medicaid expansion -- but on those he did nothing that a Democrat couldn't do.

Scott Walker without the corruption.   

[pbrower2a]

Nate Silver has something here. Michigan has lots of  one-state pollsters, and most of them lean clearly R. If those pollsters were right, then we would have never gotten this result:

Michigan      total votes -- 4,743,887    margin 49,313        Obama/Biden  2,564,569 (54.06%)

Romney/Ryan 2,115,256  (44.59%)   

margin 49,313 (9.47% D)


others    64,062 (1.35%)

There really was no big late-season collapse by Romney. Polls in Michigan from May to late August by pollsters other than the forgettable "We Ask America" had President Obama getting winning Michigan by about 7%, and he won by about 2.5% more.

Now -- are one-state pollsters useful? Maybe if they are university polls. At least with those one has some effort at objectivity. One may have professors of political science or statistics in charge, and such people may have their objectivity on the line.  Polls by or for special-interest groups get things right only by accident.

One can always have doubts on a poll on behalf of a labor union, trade association, or minority group. I would not trust a poll by the NAACP.