MI-Gov, MIRSNews: Snyder in the lead
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  MI-Gov, MIRSNews: Snyder in the lead
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Author Topic: MI-Gov, MIRSNews: Snyder in the lead  (Read 4437 times)
krazen1211
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« on: October 15, 2013, 08:46:09 AM »

Link


Synder 50
Schauer 36


Dominating.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2013, 08:59:27 AM »

What's MIRSNews ?

Looks like a joke poll, but Snyder could be recovering.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2013, 09:10:30 AM »

This polling firm had Obama and Romney tied last year... joke poll!

Why are all of the Michigan polling firms God awful?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2013, 10:08:44 AM »

Even if you apply a correction factor based on their 2012 presidential results this still has Snyder with a 5 point or so lead, which while not dominating is still very good news for Synder.
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Morning in Atlas
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2013, 10:13:51 AM »

Junky, but even if you unskew this it looks like Snyder is recovering. You could even argue for Tilt R now.
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2013, 11:01:04 AM »

We have established time and time again, literally everytime they release a poll, that MIRSNews is massively junky. Why do their polls even get posted anymore?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2013, 11:11:11 AM »

Well if they are consistently junky by roughly the same amount each time, then their polls would still be useful.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2013, 11:15:06 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2013, 11:19:54 AM by Landslide Lyndon »

Even if you apply a correction factor based on their 2012 presidential results this still has Snyder with a 5 point or so lead, which while not dominating is still very good news for Synder.

If Snyder is ahead, let's say 45-40 against an unknown opponent, then I'd say this isn't an especially encouraging showing for an incumbent.
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Morning in Atlas
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2013, 11:35:12 AM »

We have established time and time again, literally everytime they release a poll, that MIRSNews is massively junky. Why do their polls even get posted anymore?
I've never seen an MIRSNews poll before this one. Krazen posts sh**tty polls to rile us up.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2013, 11:44:59 AM »

Even if you apply a correction factor based on their 2012 presidential results this still has Snyder with a 5 point or so lead, which while not dominating is still very good news for Synder.

If Snyder is ahead, let's say 45-40 against an unknown opponent, then I'd say this isn't an especially encouraging showing for an incumbent.

Considering that polls from the first half of the year had that same unknown opponent in the lead, this is quite encouraging for Snyder.

We have established time and time again, literally everytime they release a poll, that MIRSNews is massively junky. Why do their polls even get posted anymore?
I've never seen an MIRSNews poll before this one. Krazen posts sh**tty polls to rile us up.

MIRSNews isn't the pollster, but the one who commissioned it. It was jointly done by Marketing Resource Group and Mitchell Research & Communications.  In the 2012 Presidential race Mitchell did the polls for the Detroit News that showed Michigan to be basically a tied raced, MRG's polls also skewed significantly Republican, but not as badly as Mitchell's did.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2013, 11:49:24 AM »

Even if you apply a correction factor based on their 2012 presidential results this still has Snyder with a 5 point or so lead, which while not dominating is still very good news for Synder.

If Snyder is ahead, let's say 45-40 against an unknown opponent, then I'd say this isn't an especially encouraging showing for an incumbent.

Considering that polls from the first half of the year had that same unknown opponent in the lead, this is quite encouraging for Snyder.

It would have been if we had trendlines from this pollster.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2013, 12:01:15 PM »

What's MIRSNews ?

Looks like a joke poll, but Snyder could be recovering.

this.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2013, 12:09:51 PM »

Rick Snyder has done a great job protecting the people from those marauding public sector union looters that already claimed the scalp of Michigan's largest city.

Indeed, Mr. Snyder is as popular than the Mayor of Detroit, in Detroit!
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2013, 12:16:10 PM »

Even if you apply a correction factor based on their 2012 presidential results this still has Snyder with a 5 point or so lead, which while not dominating is still very good news for Synder.

If Snyder is ahead, let's say 45-40 against an unknown opponent, then I'd say this isn't an especially encouraging showing for an incumbent.

Considering that polls from the first half of the year had that same unknown opponent in the lead, this is quite encouraging for Snyder.

It would have been if we had trendlines from this pollster.

Is not the bolded part above a trend, even if it is not for this specific race?  Even tho krazen is being his usual hyperbolic self, trying to shrug this off or not recognize this as bad news for the Democrats is ludicrous.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2013, 01:14:03 PM »

Is not the bolded part above a trend, even if it is not for this specific race?  Even tho krazen is being his usual hyperbolic self, trying to shrug this off or not recognize this as bad news for the Democrats is ludicrous.

A single poll of dubious quality is bad news for Democrats? Now, that's a bit hyperbolic.
Besides, let me remind you that this poll came after an (obviously unanswered) ad blitz by Snyder in order to improve his atrocious numbers. 
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2013, 04:26:14 PM »

Is not the bolded part above a trend, even if it is not for this specific race?  Even tho krazen is being his usual hyperbolic self, trying to shrug this off or not recognize this as bad news for the Democrats is ludicrous.

A single poll of dubious quality is bad news for Democrats? Now, that's a bit hyperbolic.

No.  Hyperbolic would be believing that Snyder actually has a 14 point lead right now.  But even accounting for the strong R tilt of the previous polls by these firms in other Michigan races, it's clear that Snyder has improved his standing.

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That Snyder can afford to do an ad blitz this far out doesn't concern you?  Of course the reason for it was no doubt to improve his numbers to forestall someone primarying him on the issue of electability.  That it worked suggested that Snyder was never as down as the Democrats hoped.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2013, 04:41:41 PM »

That Snyder can afford to do an ad blitz this far out doesn't concern you?  Of course the reason for it was no doubt to improve his numbers to forestall someone primarying him on the issue of electability.  That it worked suggested that Snyder was never as down as the Democrats hoped.

Everybody knows that Snyder is wealthy, it's not like Democrats will be blindsided by his spending.

Also, I don't remember anybody suggesting the he was vulnerable to a primary challenge, unlike Scott and Corbett.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2013, 04:52:09 PM »

Even if this is a crappy poll, it proves that this race is very competitive and won't be a very easy democratic pickup.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2013, 06:19:49 PM »

Even if this is a crappy poll, it proves that this race is very competitive

That's a contradiction.

"Even if the experiment is flawed, it proves my hypothesis" is not a sentence a scientist should ever say, and political science should follow the same rules.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2013, 06:47:18 PM »

Even if this is a crappy poll, it proves that this race is very competitive

That's a contradiction.

"Even if the experiment is flawed, it proves my hypothesis" is not a sentence a scientist should ever say, and political science should follow the same rules.

I was referring to the statements above. If you take a presidential election poll and measure its bias, subtract the bias, and apply it to here, you still have Snyder being very competitive. Of course that same bias might not exist, but it gives us a clue. I'm not trying to be a political scientist or anything.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2013, 06:56:05 PM »

Even if you apply a correction factor based on their 2012 presidential results this still has Snyder with a 5 point or so lead, which while not dominating is still very good news for Synder.
True.  Plus, I think Snyder may be recovering after the Detroit bankruptcy and his support for Medicaid expansion.  It's still too early to tell, but those two factors could be Snyder's electoral salvation.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2013, 07:08:16 PM »

This same poll has Land leading by 1 point, which is unlikely, so the whole thing is junk.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2013, 10:02:57 PM »

This same poll has Land leading by 1 point, which is unlikely, so the whole thing is junk.

Considering that Mitchell (one of the two firms involved in this poll) had Land leading by 3 points in an August poll and the highest margin Peters has had in any poll by any firm is only 5 points, them showing Land with only a 1 point lead is good news for Peters, but hardly suggests that the poll is wholly junk once you account for its tilt.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2013, 12:36:48 AM »

Michigan's pollsters are terrible. I still remember the ones showing Hoekstra winning when he lost by over 20 points.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2013, 02:32:59 AM »

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/28/aug-27-michigan-isnt-a-tossup/?_r=0


This is the same pollster that claimed that Michigan was a toss-up in 2012 because black voters would only make up 8% of the electorate, when they ended up being 16%.
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