Will the 2016 Democratic Nominee win Elliott County, KY?

[Sol]

I say no.

[PolitiJunkie]

I say no.

If Obama won it in 2012, the 2016 nominee will. The Democrat in 2016 will slightly overperform Obama in Appalachia relative to their overall performance.

[Flake]

I say no.

If Obama won it in 2012, the 2016 nominee will. The Democrat in 2016 will slightly overperform Obama in Appalachia relative to their overall performance.

[Skill and Chance]

Hillary definitely would win it.  Otherwise I am unsure.  It either flips next time or stays D until the next Republican landslide.

[TDAS04]

I say no.

If Obama won it in 2012, the 2016 nominee will. The Democrat in 2016 will slightly overperform Obama in Appalachia relative to their overall performance.

This, probably. 

[ElectionsGuy]

Probably. While the trend of Appalachia has been obvious for a long time and is progressively getting much worse for democrats, but Obama is probably an exception. Obama is literally one of the worst democratic nominees for president in such an area. Obama carried the county by the narrowest margin in 2012, so its highly likely that the democrat will carry it again in 2016.

Perhaps a better question is will the democrat break 60% in Elliott County? I say no, but you never know with these counties deep into coal country, who knew Knott County out of all places would go 73% for a republican? I say the best a democrat could do in Appalachia now is what Kerry got in 2004, and even that is terrible by historical standards.

[Cryptic]

I say no.

If Obama won it in 2012, the 2016 nominee will. The Democrat in 2016 will slightly overperform Obama in Appalachia relative to their overall performance.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If they are white, handily.

[PolitiJunkie]

If they are white, handily.

The 2016 Democratic nominee will be white.

[Ebowed]

If we didn't lose it last year, we're certainly not going to lose it in 2016.

[Indy Texas]

If they are white, handily.

The 2016 Democratic nominee will be white.

And the Republican nominee may very well be a Hispanic like Cruz/Rubio/Martinez or a dark-complexioned ethnic type like Christie or Jindal, which may not sit well with that segment of voters.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The way things are going, the Democrats might even win Campbell.

[morgieb]

Yes.

Our likely nominee is a white, you see.

[PolitiJunkie]

Yes.

Our likely nominee is a white, you see.

[WalterMitty]

it possibly goes dem if hillary or mark warner or the right winger from montana is the nominee.

though its days as a democratic county are numbered.  in a few election cycles it will be going gop at >55%, like the rest of appalachia.

[PolitiJunkie]

it possibly goes dem if hillary or mark warner or the right winger from montana is the nominee.

though its days as a democratic county are numbered.  in a few election cycles it will be going gop at >55%, like the rest of appalachia.

Where in the world do you get off calling Brian Schweitzer, the economic populist who holds liberal views on all social issues except gun control, a right-winger when you "love Terry McAuliffe" and have a positive matrix score for economic (and barely a negative one for social)?

[Fuzzy Bear]

I say no.

If Obama won it in 2012, the 2016 nominee will. The Democrat in 2016 will slightly overperform Obama in Appalachia relative to their overall performance.

I agree with this, by and large.  There were counties in Kentucky that were Democratic since the Civil War that carried for McGovern in 1972.

The GOP's dominance among "white" voters is not uniform amongst all "white" voters.  The big GOP trend is with Scot-Irish voters that populate the Democratic states that are fast trending GOP (AR, WV, KY, TN, MO, the mountain regions of VA and NC).  These voters ancestors populated these areas centuries ago.  They generally have weak ethnic attachments and consider themselves "Americans".  They are usually Protestant, but often not part of liberal mainline denominations.  They are the "working class white voters" most out of reach for Democrats.  They did give Clinton more support in 1992 and 1996 than they gave Obama either time out.  These folks are willing to listen to Democrats on economic issues, but their cultural aversion to the Democrats' current cultural liberalism is a chronic turn-off for these folks.

[CnstutnlCnsrvatv]

no beacuse kentucky prefers americans who love their country and dont ride motorcrycle gangs and do a voter fraud like grimes bussing illinois borders chicago gamblers to vote for her in kentcuyk or eggroll from hawaii its gonig to go to ted cruz and his running mate, hopefully some like mary fallin that can swing the women who love their abortions too much to see the truth of hte constitution

[PolitiJunkie]

no beacuse kentucky prefers americans who love their country and dont ride motorcrycle gangs and do a voter fraud like grimes bussing illinois borders chicago gamblers to vote for her in kentcuyk or eggroll from hawaii its gonig to go to ted cruz and his running mate, hopefully some like mary fallin that can swing the women who love their abortions too much to see the truth of hte constitution

Yikes. Did barfbag forget how to write a sentence and move to Oregon?

[ElectionsGuy]

no beacuse kentucky prefers americans who love their country and dont ride motorcrycle gangs and do a voter fraud like grimes bussing illinois borders chicago gamblers to vote for her in kentcuyk or eggroll from hawaii its gonig to go to ted cruz and his running mate, hopefully some like mary fallin that can swing the women who love their abortions too much to see the truth of hte constitution

Yikes. Did barfbag forget how to write a sentence and move to Oregon?

This guy makes barfbag look like a political genius.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

no beacuse kentucky prefers americans who love their country and dont ride motorcrycle gangs and do a voter fraud like grimes bussing illinois borders chicago gamblers to vote for her in kentcuyk or eggroll from hawaii its gonig to go to ted cruz and his running mate, hopefully some like mary fallin that can swing the women who love their abortions too much to see the truth of hte constitution

Yikes. Did barfbag forget how to write a sentence and move to Oregon?

This guy makes barfbag look like a political genius.

I give this guy about a week before he is exposed as a sock and banned.

[PolitiJunkie]

no beacuse kentucky prefers americans who love their country and dont ride motorcrycle gangs and do a voter fraud like grimes bussing illinois borders chicago gamblers to vote for her in kentcuyk or eggroll from hawaii its gonig to go to ted cruz and his running mate, hopefully some like mary fallin that can swing the women who love their abortions too much to see the truth of hte constitution

Yikes. Did barfbag forget how to write a sentence and move to Oregon?

This guy makes barfbag look like a political genius.

I mean they have the same views, barfbag is just a lot less inarticulate about expressing them.

no beacuse kentucky prefers americans who love their country and dont ride motorcrycle gangs and do a voter fraud like grimes bussing illinois borders chicago gamblers to vote for her in kentcuyk or eggroll from hawaii its gonig to go to ted cruz and his running mate, hopefully some like mary fallin that can swing the women who love their abortions too much to see the truth of hte constitution

Yikes. Did barfbag forget how to write a sentence and move to Oregon?

This guy makes barfbag look like a political genius.

I give this guy about a week before he is exposed as a sock and banned.

What's a sock?

[ElectionsGuy]

This guy makes barfbag look like a political genius.

I mean they have the same views, barfbag is just a lot less inarticulate about expressing them.

I give this guy about a week before he is exposed as a sock and banned.

What's a sock?

Barfbag does not hold the same views, and he is very open to sharing his views. Do you really think barfbag thinks that democrats commit fraud with motorcycle gangs and blacks from Chicago?

A sock is a person who has been here before from another account but makes a new account to troll.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

This guy makes barfbag look like a political genius.

I mean they have the same views, barfbag is just a lot less inarticulate about expressing them.

I give this guy about a week before he is exposed as a sock and banned.

What's a sock?

Barfbag does not hold the same views, and he is very open to sharing his views. Do you really think barfbag thinks that democrats commit fraud with motorcycle gangs and blacks from Chicago?

A sock is a person who has been here before from another account but makes a new account to troll.

This person represents almost everything people dislike about the Republican Party. He seems too "perfect" in his badness to not be a troll.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This person represents almost everything people dislike about the Republican Party. He seems too "perfect" in his badness to not be a troll.

Judging from what I've seen from the GOP locally, I think this person is for real.