LA Mayor's race

[The Duke]

Didn't know where else to puit this, but LA has a mayor's race coming up.  I'm a Hahn supporter.

His defining decisions have shown political courage and they've turned out to be right.  He was elected by black voters and Valley voters, and he's gone against his own backers to do what's best for the city.

The San Fernando Valley wanted to secede, his efforts campaigning against this hepled defeat this disasterous measure.  It would have taken the bulk of LA Unified's revenue away from the city, leaving inner city schools to fend for themselves.  Hahn saved thsoe schools, and kept the city from breaking apart.

He fired the mediocre Bernard Parks, a black man with wide support in the black community, as police chief and brought in Bill Bratton.  Crime is now down 18% under Hahn and Bratton.

Twice, he amde the right decision for the city even though it may have cost him politically.  This is the kind of leader any city would be lucky to have, and if he wins he might be able to run for Governor in 2010 and I'd vote for him in a heartbeat.  It would be the first Democrat I've voted for for statewide office in my life.  This is a man who does what's right.

Anyone else care about this race?

[muon2]

It looks certain that no one will get a majority, and a run-off will be needed in May. Based on the polls it looks like it will be the top two of Hahn, Villaraigosa, and Hertzberg.

The interesting item seems to be the increasing strength of Assembly Speaker Hertzberg. he seems to have made the greatest inroads on the undecided, while the other candidates have held even. Here are the latest numbers from the LA Times Poll, compared to a month ago:

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[The Duke]

Hertzberg has tons of money and is running ads on TV.  I haven't seen any else runs ads.

[muon2]

I'v refreshed myself since my post by cathing up on some of the recent stories. Is the corruption charge going to stick to Hahn? If so, that can be costly in a tight 3-way race.

I agree that this is the right place for this thread. Like states, major cities play an important role in US policy, and like governors, their mayors can move to national prominence. For instance, education policy in this decade is definitely shaped by programs tested in cities in the 1990's.

I tend to blame the national media, esp. TV, for the lack of attention. It's hard for them to find an audience for stories that seem local. Yet, the local debates often plant the seeds of national trends.

[The Duke]

I'v refreshed myself since my post by cathing up on some of the recent stories. Is the corruption charge going to stick to Hahn? If so, that can be costly in a tight 3-way race.

I agree that this is the right place for this thread. Like states, major cities play an important role in US policy, and like governors, their mayors can move to national prominence. For instance, education policy in this decade is definitely shaped by programs tested in cities in the 1990's.

I tend to blame the national media, esp. TV, for the lack of attention. It's hard for them to find an audience for stories that seem local. Yet, the local debates often plant the seeds of national trends.

I don't think it will stick.  Its like the pot calling the kettle black.  Villaraigosa tried to secure a pardon for a drug dealer friend of his n the last days of the Clinton administration, so I doubt that anything Hahn has done is any worse than that.

[Frodo]

it seems that Villaraigosa and incumbent Hahn will advance to the runoffs in May, as Ford predicted (somewhat):

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/elections/la-me-rematch10mar10,0,3380651.story?coll=la-home-headlines



and here are the stats of the recent mayoral election (PDF file):

http://a1022.g.akamai.net/f/1022/8158/1h/images.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2005-03/16621175.pdf

[PADem]

Didn't know where else to puit this, but LA has a mayor's race coming up.  I'm a Hahn supporter.

His defining decisions have shown political courage and they've turned out to be right.  He was elected by black voters and Valley voters, and he's gone against his own backers to do what's best for the city.

The San Fernando Valley wanted to secede, his efforts campaigning against this hepled defeat this disasterous measure.  It would have taken the bulk of LA Unified's revenue away from the city, leaving inner city schools to fend for themselves.  Hahn saved thsoe schools, and kept the city from breaking apart.

He fired the mediocre Bernard Parks, a black man with wide support in the black community, as police chief and brought in Bill Bratton.  Crime is now down 18% under Hahn and Bratton.

Twice, he amde the right decision for the city even though it may have cost him politically.  This is the kind of leader any city would be lucky to have, and if he wins he might be able to run for Governor in 2010 and I'd vote for him in a heartbeat.  It would be the first Democrat I've voted for for statewide office in my life.  This is a man who does what's right.

Anyone else care about this race?

I like him as well....

But I don't think the Mayor of L.A counts as 'statewide office'

[muon2]

Looking at the various boards on the forum, this is probably the right place to discuss the LA Mayor's race. It would make sense to retitle the forum US State and Local Elections. That would make one board for International Elections, one for Federal Congressional (House and Senate) Elections, and one for all other US elections.

[WMS]

Looking at the various boards on the forum, this is probably the right place to discuss the LA Mayor's race. It would make sense to retitle the forum US State and Local Elections. That would make one board for International Elections, one for Federal Congressional (House and Senate) Elections, and one for all other US elections.

I agree with muon2's proposal. I certainly intend to post any Albuquerque stuff here, since it really doesn't fit anywhere else...

[Moooooo]

Who is the favorite in the runoff?

Im watching Villaraigosa right now on C-SPAN and so far Im impressed.  He has a great story to tell and seems like a good man.

[No more McShame]

when is the runoff?

[Moooooo]

when is the runoff?

May something....

[The Duke]

Who is the favorite in the runoff?

Im watching Villaraigosa right now on C-SPAN and so far Im impressed.  He has a great story to tell and seems like a good man.

Did he talk about the part of his story when he lobbied Clinton to pardon his drug dealer buddy in 2001?

Usually he leaves that part out.

[Moooooo]

Did he talk about the part of his story when he lobbied Clinton to pardon his drug dealer buddy in 2001?

Usually he leaves that part out.

Yeah he left that part out, but he did mention how Hahn has been MIA since he took office.

[Frodo]

Riordan Supports Villaraigosa for Mayor

By Patrick McGreevy and Noam N. Levey, Times Staff Writers

State Education Secretary and former Los Angeles Mayor Richard J. Riordan endorsed Antonio Villaraigosa for mayor Friday, saying the city councilman will bring a new level of energy and vision to fixing the city school system and expanding after-school opportunities for children.

On a day when Mayor James K. Hahn focused on initiatives to give neighborhoods more say at City Hall, Riordan appeared at a Van Nuys school and said he is impressed by Villaraigosa's commitment to creating "community schools."

"What we need is somebody who is electric, somebody who is a leader, somebody who will bring hope to the people of Los Angeles," Riordan said. "And I don't know anybody better than Antonio Villaraigosa."
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-mayor2apr02,1,4073703.story?coll=la-headlines-politics

[The Duke]

Typical of Riordan.  He explicitly says he'd rather have someone exciting than competent.

[Moooooo]

LOS ANGELES - Basketball legend Earvin "Magic" Johnson endorsed Antonio Villaraigosa for mayor Monday, giving the challenger one of the race's prized endorsements and another A-list supporter in the politically crucial black community.

Johnson played for Hahn last time, but no more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/

[Frodo]

TIMES POLL
Villaraigosa Leads Incumbent by 18 Points

By Michael Finnegan, Times Staff Writer

http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-me-poll13apr13,0,2512498.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[No more McShame]

Typical LA, someone does something about the crime problem and they railroad him out of the city (hall).

[Beet]

Isn't traffic a huge problem in Los Angeles? Do people in that city commute to work? Why don't they get a subway system? It is the 2nd biggest city in the country and has no subway system, whereas 3rd world cities in India and China now have subways. And San Franscisco a much smaller city has a subway running through the entire metro area. Heck, so does D.C., whose system was built in the 1970s after a successful ad campaign. If I were living in L.A. I would vote for any mayor proposing such a system.

[The Duke]

LA has a subway (Route map here).  No one, and I mean no one, rides the thing.  Last time anyone even saw one of our trains was the climactic scene in SpeedHonestly, I don't even know where my nearest station is.

A subway will never be a viable solution for LA since the city is so huge.  It is by far the largest city in America in area, with parts of the San Fernando Valley 30-40 miles from downtown LA, or the same distance from downtown LA as Anaheim.

The construction of a subway system would be:

1. Prohibitively expensive given the area it would have to cover to even be a viable option for most people.

2. Laughable to most voters, since we have empty trains running underground since they tried it last time.

***********************************************

Let me simply say that I live far closer to LAX than almost anyone I know, and I have no soundproofing in my apartment.  I don't mind the airplanes, you can barely hear them.  I only hear them at all at night when the streets are quiet.  I also think expanding LAX is important for the city and region, and it will happen anyway (Because the FAA has the authority to expand any airport anywhere in the US anytime by fiat, and expanding LAX is just that important to the country.) and yet the west side will shoot down a great Mayor because he wants a marginal increase in airport noise that will come from expansion.  I don't get it.

Villairagosa will win.  It won't be that close.  The hispanics will vote for Antonio because he looks like them, the blacks will vote for Antonio because Hahn fired Parks, the Valley will vote down the middle because even though they hate Hahn now, they've hated Antonio for longer, and the west side will vote Antonio because they're white guilt limousine liberals who want to see the colored boy win because somehow that will make them sleep better at night.

LA's underlying problem is that its not a city anymore, its several cities.

The Valley is a sort of city unto itself.  East LA is a slum city, like Detroit is becoming.  The West Side is a city unto itself with its own identity of upper middle class white elites.  Even as LA's metro area gobbles up more and more of the surrounding area (There is no way to know anymore if you've driven into Orange County or you're still in LA just by looking.  There's no break in the urban jungle.), it breaks apart more and more from within, like the old Roman Empire did.

Eventually, the more prosperous Byzantium broke away from Rome, and old Rome was left to wither.  I think eventually, the Valley (and Hollywood) will succeed in its secession quest, and go on to prosper.  Without the Valley for revenue, LA City will slowly but surely wither and die.  It will become the hispanic version of Inglewood (the independent city within LA metro now run by a group of crooked race baiting black politicians), only writ large.

The Villairagosa election will trigger it all, with the Valley's secession movement gaining the fuel it needs to become unstoppable.  Mayor Hahn brought just enough middle class whites back from the brink last time, but Mayor Antonio will have no clout with them.  Some were willing to stay only because they thought they could still elect a Mayor, but none of them will want to stay for an Antonio Mayorship.  The Valley and Hollywood will both be gone by decade's end.

Too bad.  And all because the west side didn't want the airport expanded.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting stuff. Pretty disturbing actually... I've never seen a City that large commit suicide before...

[Frodo]

imagine how powerful Democrats would be in New York City if they could achieve the same level of success in settling differences between the two largest constituencies in such major urban centers as they have done in Los Angeles:

A Black-Latino Coalition Emerges in Los Angeles
By JOHN M. BRODER

Published: April 24, 2005

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/24/national/24mayor.html?

[CARLHAYDEN]

***********************************************

Let me simply say that I live far closer to LAX than almost anyone I know, and I have no soundproofing in my apartment.  I don't mind the airplanes, you can barely hear them.  I only hear them at all at night when the streets are quiet.  I also think expanding LAX is important for the city and region, and it will happen anyway (Because the FAA has the authority to expand any airport anywhere in the US anytime by fiat, and expanding LAX is just that important to the country.) and yet the west side will shoot down a great Mayor because he wants a marginal increase in airport noise that will come from expansion.  I don't get it.

Villairagosa will win.  It won't be that close.  The hispanics will vote for Antonio because he looks like them, the blacks will vote for Antonio because Hahn fired Parks, the Valley will vote down the middle because even though they hate Hahn now, they've hated Antonio for longer, and the west side will vote Antonio because they're white guilt limousine liberals who want to see the colored boy win because somehow that will make them sleep better at night.

LA's underlying problem is that its not a city anymore, its several cities.

The Valley is a sort of city unto itself.  East LA is a slum city, like Detroit is becoming.  The West Side is a city unto itself with its own identity of upper middle class white elites.  Even as LA's metro area gobbles up more and more of the surrounding area (There is no way to know anymore if you've driven into Orange County or you're still in LA just by looking.  There's no break in the urban jungle.), it breaks apart more and more from within, like the old Roman Empire did.

Eventually, the more prosperous Byzantium broke away from Rome, and old Rome was left to wither.  I think eventually, the Valley (and Hollywood) will succeed in its secession quest, and go on to prosper.  Without the Valley for revenue, LA City will slowly but surely wither and die.  It will become the hispanic version of Inglewood (the independent city within LA metro now run by a group of crooked race baiting black politicians), only writ large.

The Villairagosa election will trigger it all, with the Valley's secession movement gaining the fuel it needs to become unstoppable.  Mayor Hahn brought just enough middle class whites back from the brink last time, but Mayor Antonio will have no clout with them.  Some were willing to stay only because they thought they could still elect a Mayor, but none of them will want to stay for an Antonio Mayorship.  The Valley and Hollywood will both be gone by decade's end.

Too bad.  And all because the west side didn't want the airport expanded.

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I think your analysis is a very cogent one.

The interesting thing is that when the valley secedes, wester LA will be left to pick up the costs (financial and otherwise).

At that time west LA will face a clash between their liberal faith and cold and very hard reality.

Al is right about this being a case of municipal suicide.

[Sam Spade]

imagine how powerful Democrats would be in New York City if they could achieve the same level of success in settling differences between the two largest constituencies in such major urban centers as they have done in Los Angeles:

A Black-Latino Coalition Emerges in Los Angeles
By JOHN M. BRODER

Published: April 24, 2005

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/24/national/24mayor.html?

Part of the reason why that won't happen for a while (if ever) still is because of the incredible damage David Dinkins did in the early 1990s to NYC.  A black will never be elected there for a long while and the black-Hispanic animosity that develops each election cycle seems to not be wavering.

All in all, this was a positive thing for NYC because they got a man in Giulani who knew how to run a big city and turned the place around (I do give him significant credit there, esp. in reducing crime).

Same thing happened in Houston, TX in the late 90s, early part of this century under the disasterous rule of Dinkins Police Chief, the uber-bureaucratic Lee Brown.  I predict that there will never be another black mayor elected again in Houston for a long while, though a Hispanic-moderate white coalition is very possible.