1996 Dole/Kemp vs. Kerry/Gephardt

[barfbag]

Let's say in 1991, Bush would've captured and tried Saddam Hussein which in January of 1992 results in life imprisonment. Iraq now seems to be a stable and peaceful ally of the U.S. He keeps his promise of "read my lips, no new taxes" and unemployment numbers are shown throughout 1992 in a favorable manner. This all results in Bush defeating Clinton 283-255 and 55-45. Clinton makes it a race by picking up MT, NM, CA, PA, VT, MD, CT, IL, MO, and AR from 1988. Ross Perot also decided not to run either time. It's now 1996 and we've had 16 years of popular Republican administrations, but obviously voters are going to still be wanting some change. Al Gore never really makes it to the big time stage being on the losing ticket in 1992 and Clinton is out of politics with his wife never having a political career. The primary fields are wide open in both parties with Bob Dole emerging as he did being the last man standing for the Republicans. Democratic senator John Kerry has an early bloom in his prime by winning against a field of over a dozen other Democrats. By April of 1996 Kerry and Dole are the nominees. In July Kerry picks Speaker of the House, Dick Gephardt of Missouri. With Bush winning a second term, the 1994 Republican Revolution never happened, but their party did gain seats in both houses. A month later in August, Bob Dole still picks Jack Kemp as his running mate. NAFTA has still been set in place and is very popular, Bush signs a version of welfare reform, and don't ask, don't tell is put in place. President Bush has a 56% approval rating on average throughout the year and unemployment is 5.4%. All three debates seem very boring to the public and as a result voter turnout is only 66% of registered voters and 52% of the voting age population. I think this was actually a little higher than what it really was in 1996 still.  The top issues are our place in NATO, the U.N., taxes, healthcare which both candidates have moderate conservative and moderate liberal proposals for prospectively, and gas prices are $1.21 which is a little higher for the time. Who wins the election? What is the outcome?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Dole isn't an inspiring candidate, and 20 years in a row for one party is near-impossible. Kerry likely gets a narrow win courtesy of the midwest, and faces a stiff challenge from McCain in 2000 (the party wouldn't nominate the son of a former President with only one term between them).

[barfbag]

Dole isn't an inspiring candidate, and 20 years in a row for one party is near-impossible. Kerry likely gets a narrow win courtesy of the midwest, and faces a stiff challenge from McCain in 2000 (the party wouldn't nominate the son of a former President with only one term between them).

100% right what is your map?

[Maxwell]

Senator John Kerry (D-MA)/Congressman Dick Gephardt (D-MO) - 50.4%, 331 EV's
Senator Bob Dole (R-KS)/Former HuD Secretary Jack Kemp (R-NY) - 43.8%, 207 EV's
Businessman Ross Perot (I-TX)/Economist Pat Choate (I-TN) - 4.4%, 0 EV's

[PolitiJunkie]

1996: Kerry/Gephardt defeats Dole/Kemp
2000: McCain/Alexander defeats Kerry/Gephardt
2004: McCain/Alexander defeats Edwards/Graham
2008: Obama/Biden defeats Romney/Huckabee

[barfbag]

Senator John Kerry (D-MA)/Congressman Dick Gephardt (D-MO) - 50.4%, 331 EV's
Senator Bob Dole (R-KS)/Former HuD Secretary Jack Kemp (R-NY) - 43.8%, 207 EV's
Businessman Ross Perot (I-TX)/Economist Pat Choate (I-TN) - 4.4%, 0 EV's

Perot wasn't running in this scenario. Your map would still be right though.

[barfbag]

I thought I'd estimate how each of them would do based on the nature of the times and electoral politics of the 90's and 00's.

Alabama- Dole   58%
               Kerry 40%
 
Alaska- Dole   61%
            Kerry 37%
 
Arizona- Dole   50%
             Kerry 49%
 
Arkansas- Kerry 52%
               Dole  46%
 
California- Kerry 56%
               Dole   42%
 
Colorado- Dole   49%
               Kerry 49%
 
Connecticut- Kerry 58%
                   Dole   40%
 
Delaware- Kerry 57%
                Dole  41%
 
D.C.- Kerry 89%
         Dole  10%
 
Florida- Kerry 53%
            Dole  47%
 
Georgia- Dole  51%
             Kerry 47%
 
Hawaii- Kerry 62%
            Dole  38%
   
Idaho- Dole  66%
          Kerry 34%
 
Illinois- Kerry 58%
           Dole   41%
 
Indiana- Dole  55%
             Kerry 43%
 
Iowa- Kerry 55%
         Dole   45%
 
Kansas- Dole  60%
            Kerry 38%
 
Kentucky- Dole  49%
               Kerry 49%
 
Louisiana- Kerry 52%
                Dole  48%
 
Maine- Kerry 59%
           Dole  39%
 
Maryland- Kerry 58%
               Dole   41%
 
Massachusetts- Kerry 66%
                       Dole  32%
 
Michigan- Kerry 57%
               Dole  43%
 
Minnesota- Kerry 57%
                 Dole  42%
 
Mississippi- Dole  55%
                 Kerry 43%
 
Missouri- Kerry 52%
              Dole  47%
 
Montana- Dole  51%
              Kerry 48%
 
Nebraska- Dole   63%
                Kerry 37%
 
Nevada- Kerry 53%
             Dole   45%
 
New Hampshire- Kerry 55%
                         Dole  43%
 
New Jersey- Kerry 59%
                  Dole   41%
 
New Mexico- Kerry 53%
                   Dole  46%
 
New York- Kerry 63%
                Dole  36%
 
North Carolina- Dole   53%
                       Kerry 47%
 
North Dakota- Dole   59%
                      Kerry 39%
 
Ohio- Kerry 52%
         Dole  46%
 
Oklahoma- Dole   60%
                 Kerry 40%
 
Oregon- Kerry 55%
             Dole  45%
 
Pennsylvania- Kerry 55%
                     Dole  45%
 
Rhode Island- Kerry 65%
                     Dole  33%
 
South Carolina- Dole  55%
                       Kerry 45% 
 
South Dakota- Dole   55%
                      Kerry 44%
 
Tennessee- Dole  50%
                 Kerry 50%
 
Texas- Dole  55%
          Kerry 44%
 
Utah- Dole   68%
          Kerry 31%
 
Vermont- Kerry 63%
              Dole  37%
 
Virginia- Dole   52%
             Kerry 48%
 
Washington- Kerry 56%
                   Dole  42%
 
West Virginia- Kerry 55%
                     Dole  45%
 
Wisconsin- Kerry 56%
                Dole   42%
 
Wyoming- Dole   64%
                Kerry 34%


National- Kerry 54%
              Dole  46%

Kerry 352
Dole  186

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Nevada would go Republican.

[Thomas D]

Kerry 308-230