German Elections & Politics

[DavidB.]

Blue collar workers:

That SPD figure says everything you need to know. Brutal.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Blue collar workers:

That SPD figure says everything you need to know. Brutal.

It's the same problem that the Parti Socialiste and the Labour Party and to some extent even the Democrats have to face...

[mileslunn]

Brutal for SPD, although I don't think the left is any weaker, it seems if anything the Greens much like in neighbouring Baden-Wurttemberg will probably replace SPD as main left wing party.  Off course Bavaria is a centre-right state so doubt they will form government anytime soon but who knows.  It seems the trend throughout the Western world (UK excepted) is for traditional parties to decline and non-traditional to rise so less ideological more dissatisfaction with the status quo.  UK was the one who bucked the trend as it returned clearly to the two main parties.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Thrid ARD projection:

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1051510288992935936

This is from almost an hour ago, though.

EDIT: Click on the link in the tweet to see the coalition possibilities.

[President Johnson]

Blue collar workers:

That SPD figure says everything you need to know. Brutal.

It's the same problem that the Parti Socialiste and the Labour Party and to some extent even the Democrats have to face...

Many, I believe, feel abandoned since party elites seemed to care more about transgender toilets, gendered texts (in German), gay rights and (mass) immigration. Some of these issues like gay rights are important, but a too stark focus on them isn't a winning strategy. Of course, there are other factors such as the financial crisis and its aftermath, automation and jobs shipment overseas, problems resulting from globalism etc. There is not "the answer" to this problem. It's very complex.

One of the SPD's main problems is that voters don't see what the party is actually standing for. There is no core issue that reaches the hearts and minds, and especially the hearts, of people in addition to management mistakes in the making for decades.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Alec Baldwin came to Bavaria to give the SPD some solace:

[TheSaint250]

Any word on how BP is doing?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Third ZDF projection:

[TheSaint250]

Wow, everybody but CSU and FW are declining.

[Aurelio21]

@ The Saint
The state media does not publish anything. Over local government pages I have seen: my estimate is about 3 %, which is quite good for a Party whithout any media coverage.

[republicanbayer]

Bad result for the CSU, obviously, but at least better than expected. Söder will definitely remain Minister President. The Seehofer-Merkel fight hurt them a lot, losing voters to AfD, Greens and FW. They're currently at 80 seats, which is surprisingly low since there are 91 districts and I don't see how 11 of them are won by another party.
I hope that the Greens are riding on a wave similar to 2011. The fundamentals haven't really shifted in their favour and i could see them declining as soon as the government stops messing up everything, whenever that is. Of course, the media hype and the environmentalism among Bavarians helps them a lot.
AfD has underperformed significantly. I think many potential voters preferred CSU or FW, which shows that you can keep that party small, if you don't consider 20% of the people Nazis.
The SPD has become a joke, criticizing the failed Jamaica negotiations and the CDU-CSU fights for their bad result, among other things.

A new government must be formed within the next 4 weeks. CSU-FW is the most likely option. While it would be good for Bavaria, the Freien Wähler would be a loss for the opposition. Hubert Aiwanger has always been a champion of the people and the only serious opposition to the CSU. I fear that they will suffer the typical junior partner fate and lose heavily in the next election.

[President Johnson]

Bad result for the CSU, obviously, but at least better than expected. Söder will definitely remain Minister President. The Seehofer-Merkel fight hurt them a lot, losing voters to AfD, Greens and FW. They're currently at 80 seats, which is surprisingly low since there are 91 districts and I don't see how 11 of them are won by another party.
I hope that the Greens are riding on a wave similar to 2011. The fundamentals haven't really shifted in their favour and i could see them declining as soon as the government stops messing up everything, whenever that is. Of course, the media hype and the environmentalism among Bavarians helps them a lot.
AfD has underperformed significantly. I think many potential voters preferred CSU or FW, which shows that you can keep that party small, if you don't consider 20% of the people Nazis.
The SPD has become a joke, criticizing the failed Jamaica negotiations and the CDU-CSU fights for their bad result, among other things.

A new government must be formed within the next 4 weeks. CSU-FW is the most likely option. While it would be good for Bavaria, the Freien Wähler would be a loss for the opposition. Hubert Aiwanger has always been a champion of the people and the only serious opposition to the CSU. I fear that they will suffer the typical junior partner fate and lose heavily in the next election.

I heard this as well. What happens if this isn't successful? New elections?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's interesting to see that Infratest dimap (ARD) and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF) project different numbers of additional seats:

[republicanbayer]

Bad result for the CSU, obviously, but at least better than expected. Söder will definitely remain Minister President. The Seehofer-Merkel fight hurt them a lot, losing voters to AfD, Greens and FW. They're currently at 80 seats, which is surprisingly low since there are 91 districts and I don't see how 11 of them are won by another party.
I hope that the Greens are riding on a wave similar to 2011. The fundamentals haven't really shifted in their favour and i could see them declining as soon as the government stops messing up everything, whenever that is. Of course, the media hype and the environmentalism among Bavarians helps them a lot.
AfD has underperformed significantly. I think many potential voters preferred CSU or FW, which shows that you can keep that party small, if you don't consider 20% of the people Nazis.
The SPD has become a joke, criticizing the failed Jamaica negotiations and the CDU-CSU fights for their bad result, among other things.

A new government must be formed within the next 4 weeks. CSU-FW is the most likely option. While it would be good for Bavaria, the Freien Wähler would be a loss for the opposition. Hubert Aiwanger has always been a champion of the people and the only serious opposition to the CSU. I fear that they will suffer the typical junior partner fate and lose heavily in the next election.

I heard this as well. What happens if this isn't successful? New elections?

Yes.

[TheSaint250]

@ The Saint
The state media does not publish anything. Over local government pages I have seen: my estimate is about 3 %, which is quite good for a Party whithout any media coverage.

It is interesting how they are still rising compared to 2013. I would have thought they would have fallen with more right-wing options on the table this time around.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

@ The Saint
The state media does not publish anything. Over local government pages I have seen: my estimate is about 3 %, which is quite good for a Party whithout any media coverage.

It is interesting how they are still rising compared to 2013. I would have thought they would have fallen with more right-wing options on the table this time around.

Don't fall for him. Aurelio21 is just a BP troll.

[TheSaint250]

@ The Saint
The state media does not publish anything. Over local government pages I have seen: my estimate is about 3 %, which is quite good for a Party whithout any media coverage.

It is interesting how they are still rising compared to 2013. I would have thought they would have fallen with more right-wing options on the table this time around.

Don't fall for him. Aurelio21 is just a BP troll.

Lol

Also:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1051394227748397057

This most definitely helped the Greens, I would think.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1051394227748397057

This most definitely helped the Greens, I would think.

One should know that Bavaria has the hardest and most demanding education system by far.

[Aurelio21]

@ The Saint
The state media does not publish anything. Over local government pages I have seen: my estimate is about 3 %, which is quite good for a Party whithout any media coverage.

It is interesting how they are still rising compared to 2013. I would have thought they would have fallen with more right-wing options on the table this time around.

Don't fall for him. Aurelio21 is just a BP troll.

Lol

Also:

Then you seem to be totally obmissive that my other projections of the main parties is quite correct.

And my fellow german poster seems to have missed the irony: I am NOT from Bavaria, and would wish sometimes they would "Vote Leave" :-)

If you have access to municipal and local election results: The BP does weill in rural areas, yet the high turnout in big cities will stop them from having a better result.

[TheSaint250]

Lol

Then you seem to be totally obmissive that my other projections of the main parties is quite correct.

I just thought the idea of a "BP troll" as being funny I know you aren't one

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here are the 2013 results:



The "other" parties are currently projected to receive 5.5%.
Can you explain how the BP is supposed to get 3%?

[Aurelio21]

Lol

Then you seem to be totally obmissive that my other projections of the main parties is quite correct.

I just thought the idea of a "BP troll" as being funny I know you aren't one

Yeah, then I would have to do something against this like hanging or shooting myself if I would ever become one ;-)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Lol

Then you seem to be totally obmissive that my other projections of the main parties is quite correct.

I just thought the idea of a "BP troll" as being funny I know you aren't one

Yeah, then I would have to do something against this like hanging or shooting myself if I would ever become one ;-)

You predicted the other parties correctly by missing the Greens. That's why you predicted such a high "others" vote.

What are your figures for ÖDP, mut, LKR, the Pirates and DIE PARTEI?

[Aurelio21]

Lol

Then you seem to be totally obmissive that my other projections of the main parties is quite correct.

I just thought the idea of a "BP troll" as being funny I know you aren't one

Yeah, then I would have to do something against this like hanging or shooting myself if I would ever become one ;-)

You predicted the other parties correctly by missing the Greens. That's why you predicted such a high "others" vote.

What are your figures for ÖDP, mut and BüSo?

Usually the Greens overperform in the polls. My modell conssisted of correlating pre-election polling and end-result in similar center-right electorates thus my over-assessment of "other"-Parties. From my overestimate of "Other" combined with a strong social media presence of the BP I deduced my results.