German Elections & Politics

[President Johnson]

Any explanation for the strong Green surge? They probably took a lot of support from the FDP and SPD, but why exactly are they the ones surging so much?

The Greens surge because they are the ultimate opposition to the AfD. They're essentially for open borders on immigration and pro-EU (but against the dead trade deal with the US). The current Dieselgate scandal also helps the Greens, like Fukoshima did in 2011. Additionally, they have rebranded and renewed themselfes, both with personell and on the issues (moderation on econmic issues in particular; our Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann, for example, is essentially closer to the CDU on these issues than to the SPD).

The FDP does well because they are extremely good with online advertising or advertising in general. Their leader Christian Lindner is also a good speaker, a fresh face and smart guy. I like him as well. Their program itsself hasn't that much changed, though their communication focus is different. For example, they talk a lot about education for a while now. The FDP is also a proponent of a tougher immigration policy and a good alternative for all those Merkel critics, who generally favor the European Union and think the AfD is too far right.

Any reports on turnout?

It was 54% at 2 p.m. local time. That's pretty strong.

[Aurelio21]

Any explanation for the strong Green surge? They probably took a lot of support from the FDP and SPD, but why exactly are they the ones surging so much?

Basically, there are 2 groups from where the Greens are getting new support:
- SPD eletorate from affluent urban and especially suburban voters. These voters voted against the coalition and are now leaving in droves. Unlike in Northern and Western Germany, the BavarianSPD has had their only strongholds in big cities like Munich, Nuremberg and Augsburg. Until 2000 they had a rural presence in northern upper Franconia with socially conservative voters.
- The CSU is losing their grip on conservatives. They are leaving (Refugees Welcome!)towards the FW and especially the AfD. The CSU rather is a Big-Tent-Party with conservative appearance. If you are a young bavarian you have to be a member or affiliated to the CSU for your own professional carreer due to the momentary total dominance of the CSU in Society, even if you sympathize with Greens/SPD. Now that the CSU seems to be done for, These socialized center-left CSU members and voters are leaving as they see an opportunity of getting rid of their innatural bonds.

[TheSaint250]

So when do the exit polls come out again?

[RedPrometheus]

So when do the exit polls come out again?

The public ones in 50 minutes.

[republicanbayer]

@The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

My educated guess:

CSU (supposedly conservative):    35 %
SPD (socialdemocratic):                 9 %
Greens (socialist-ecologic):           16 %
Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 %
AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 %
Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Under the 5-%-threshold:
FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 %
The Left (socialist):                                  4.0 %
Other:                                                    2.5 %    

Sorry, that's just ridiculous. The Bavarian Party won't get anywhere close to 5%. They're around for years, many voters know them, like them and would even vote for them, but no one acutally does. 2% would be a good result for them, but everything about 3% is just not realistic. 

[republicanbayer]

Any explanation for the strong Green surge? They probably took a lot of support from the FDP and SPD, but why exactly are they the ones surging so much?

Basically, there are 2 groups from where the Greens are getting new support:
- SPD eletorate from affluent urban and especially suburban voters. These voters voted against the coalition and are now leaving in droves. Unlike in Northern and Western Germany, the BavarianSPD has had their only strongholds in big cities like Munich, Nuremberg and Augsburg. Until 2000 they had a rural presence in northern upper Franconia with socially conservative voters.
- The CSU is losing their grip on conservatives. They are leaving (Refugees Welcome!)towards the FW and especially the AfD. The CSU rather is a Big-Tent-Party with conservative appearance. If you are a young bavarian you have to be a member or affiliated to the CSU for your own professional carreer due to the momentary total dominance of the CSU in Society, even if you sympathize with Greens/SPD. Now that the CSU seems to be done for, These socialized center-left CSU members and voters are leaving as they see an opportunity of getting rid of their innatural bonds.

I don't know where you're getting your information from, but as a young Bavarian myself this is just plain wrong. Bavaria isn't China where you have to be a member of the party in order to advance your career. It's totally irrelevant whether you're a member of the CSU, SPD or not a party member at all. Politics doesn't matter in your personal or professional life, so I don't know why you're saying such things.

[Aurelio21]

Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Sorry, that's just ridiculous. The Bavarian Party won't get anywhere close to 5%. They're around for years, many voters know them, like them and would even vote for them, but no one acutally does. 2% would be a good result for them, but everything about 3% is just not realistic. 
[/quote]

You're missing the point, I've already admitted the hyperbole. Yet they are totally underestimated, if you had read my other posts that should be clear.

[Aurelio21]

I don't know where you're getting your information from, but as a young Bavarian myself this is just plain wrong. Bavaria isn't China where you have to be a member of the party in order to advance your career. It's totally irrelevant whether you're a member of the CSU, SPD or not a party member at all. Politics doesn't matter in your personal or professional life, so I don't know why you're saying such things.

… says someone who identifies as a conservative. Then show me please the vast majority number of SPD/Green/FDP/AfD-members running the municipalities.
The straw man argument (Bavaria is not China TM) does not lead anywhere. If the municipal branches of the CSU did not support the ;-) conservative movement of "Refugees Welcome" ;-) this programme would simply not have been applied in Bavaria (the same as in whole Germany).

Thus there is even in Bavaria a support of pro-Immigratation policies despite the opposite utterered by Seehofer and Soeder!

[republicanbayer]

I voted CSU today, mainly for two reasons. 1) They're doing a good job running Bavaria, at least compared to the other 15 states. 2) The way the media treated the CSU and especially Seehofer over the last few months was just disgraceful. That he's been painted as a threat to our democracy is a shame.
But of course, the CSU will suffer a brutal loss. While they managed to win back some AfD-Voters (no one is mentioning how bad they're performing, compared to the national polls), they lost twice as much voters to the Greens. Another reason for the bad result for the CSU is that due to the success of our economy and universities many people, who weren't born here, live in Bavaria. They have no connection to the CSU and quickly jumped the ship with all the bad press the CSU is getting.

I'm pretty sure Söder will survive the election as long as the CSU gets  above 32%. He fought 10 years to get this job and won't give it up after 10 months. Seehofer on the other hand will probably have to resign as party leader. I guess Dobrindt is the most likely choice as his successor. If Seehofer has to resign as Interior Minister as well, I'm pretty sure he will try to take Merkel down with him.

Another interesting fact is that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Volker Bouffier have criticized the CSU in the last few days. I don't think that it will make any difference, but still shows how bad the relationship of CDU and CSU is.

[DavidB.]

Good choice. But how is the CSU losing many votes to the Greens? I don't get this. AfD is gaining even more voters than CSU is losing in most polls. Seems logical that the voter movements are CSU -> AfD and SPD -> Green.

[Tender Branson]

Any reports on turnout?

There are no Bayern-wide reports about it.

But the turnout in the biggest cities (München, Nürnberg, Augsburg) is about 8-12% higher so far than in 2013 ...

[republicanbayer]

I don't know where you're getting your information from, but as a young Bavarian myself this is just plain wrong. Bavaria isn't China where you have to be a member of the party in order to advance your career. It's totally irrelevant whether you're a member of the CSU, SPD or not a party member at all. Politics doesn't matter in your personal or professional life, so I don't know why you're saying such things.

… says someone who identifies as a conservative. Then show me please the vast majority number of SPD/Green/FDP/AfD-members running the municipalities.
The straw man argument (Bavaria is not China TM) does not lead anywhere. If the municipal branches of the CSU did not support the ;-) conservative movement of "Refugees Welcome" ;-) this programme would simply not have been applied in Bavaria (the same as in whole Germany).

Thus there is even in Bavaria a support of pro-Immigratation policies despite the opposite utterered by Seehofer and Soeder!

Well, I'm a conservative, but I'm not a member of the CSU. In fact, today was the first time I've voted for the CSU all my life. I agree with you, when it comes to a political career, it's easier to win as a CSU candidate. But it's also harder to get the nomination, because the CSU has by far the most members. And again, if you're not running for some office, your party affiliation is simpy irrelevant.

[republicanbayer]

Good choice. But how is the CSU losing many votes to the Greens? I don't get this. AfD is gaining even more voters than CSU is losing in most polls. Seems logical that the voter movements are CSU -> AfD and SPD -> Green.

I might be wrong and I have no numbers to back this up, I just think that the AfD will not gain compared to their result in Bavaria last year while they gained ~5% nationwide. The Greens meanwhile have significantly increased their numbers, so my guess is that Seehofer's attempts to fix the immigration mess have brought back some conservatives (like me, I voted FDP last year) at the cost of losing many voters who support Merkel and vote for a pro-immigration party like the Greens.

[jaichind]

Any links to results?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Any links to results?

http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY/index.shtml

[Tender Branson]

Any links to results?

Results start to come in at 6pm, which is in 15 minutes. But probably much later, at 7 or something in reality.

https://www.landtagswahl2018.bayern.de

[Tender Branson]

BR livestream:

https://www.br.de/mediathek/live

Results, maps and analysis:

https://landtagswahl.br.de/esvdata/soft/ec/ltwby18-default/br24/index.html?

[Tender Branson]

From the exit poll:

"The economic situation in Bayern is excellent or good."



"The situation in Bayern is reason to be proud of."



"I'm concerned that Islam gets too strong of an influence in Germany."

[Tender Branson]

ARD / BR / Infratest dimap turnout projection:

72.5% (+9%)

[DavidB.]

Turnout prognosis 72.5% (+8.9%)

[President Johnson]

First exit poll:

[Tender Branson]

18:00 ZDF projection:

[Tender Branson]

While the results for the CSU is bad, the SPD on the other hand ... LOL.

-23% for the so-called "Grand" Coalition in Berlin. Nice job. Well done.

[DavidB.]

Could have been worse if CSU are really over 35%.

[jaichind]

FW doing quite well