German Elections & Politics

[PSOL]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-emissions-minister/german-justice-minister-committed-to-tougher-sanctions-on-companies-idUSKCN1MM0IO?il=0

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I wonder, in the effect that SDP gets lower than the threshold, is there still a contingent of moderate conservatives willing to put heat on such transgressions. Or is it more likely that the lukewarm regulations gets repealed after Merkel is not in the picture.


Also it seems like the Bougie folks are getting scared in Bavaria
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-bavaria/firms-warn-german-employees-on-populism-before-state-votes-idUSKCN1MM1FG

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I got to agree, voters should vote for parties based on principles, like Linke or the Greens

[rob in cal]

election.de suggests that AFD will have its best districts in Lower Bavaria, SPD strongest ones  in Upper Franconia. Any reason for this?

[EPG]

Franconia is for religio-historic reasons a stronghold of the SPD. Lower Bavaria bordering Austria and the Czechia Republic is a stronghold of the refugee crisis.

[Polkergeist]

About a week ago, election.de estimated the total seats for the Bavaria Landtag election at 217.

http://www.election.de/img/maps/by18_prognose_sitze_181008.png

This would put the ovehang/compensation expansion at 37, a 20% increase.

Have there been larger proportional increases than 20% before to compensate for overhangs?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

election.de suggests that AFD will have its best districts in Lower Bavaria, SPD strongest ones  in Upper Franconia. Any reason for this?

Here are the 2013 results for the SPD at administrative region level:

Middle Franconia (Ansbach): 24.6%
Upper Franconia (Bayreuth): 23.3%
Upper Bavaria (Munich): 22.1%
Upper Palatinate (Regensburg): 19.549%
Lower Franconia (Würzburg): 19.546%
Swabia (Augsburg): 17.2%
Lower Bavaria (Landshut): 14.0%

Apropos of Würzburg, does anybody want to take a guess as to what party Dirk Nowitzki is going to vote for? As a U.S. citizen he would definitely be a Democrat. But how does that translate into German politics?

[Tender Branson]

So, here's my prediction for the Bayern state election on Sunday:

36.7% CSU (-11.0%)
14.4% Greens (+5.8%)
13.0% AfD (+13.0%)
12.6% SPD (-8.0%)
  9.8% FW (+0.8%)
  5.5% FDP (+2.2%)
  3.1% Left (+1.0%)
  4.9% Others* (-3.8%)

* small parties: BP 1.5%, ÖDP 1.2%, Pirates 0.6%, REP & NPD decimated because of the AfD.

Turnout: 68.9% (+5.3%)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

CSU: 32.7%
Grüne: 18.0%
AfD: 16.0%
FW: 11.7%
SPD: 8.5%
-------------
FDP: 4.8%
Linke: 4.5%
others: 3.8%

CSU: 84 direct seats
Grüne: 5 direct seats (all in Munich)
FW: 2 direct seats (Reinhardt Glauber and Hubert Aiwanger)

[President Johnson]

My prediction for Bavaria:

CSU: 34.5%
Greens: 17.8%
SPD: 10.8%
AfD: 10.5%
Free Voters: 10.2%
FDP: 6.5%

----

The Left: 2.8%


Turnout: 71.5%

[DavidB.]

CSU 34%
Greens 17.5%
AfD 13.5%
FW 10.5%
SPD 10%
FDP 6%
Linke 4%

Turnout 70%

[Yeahsayyeah]

My prediction

CSU: 34,2
Grüne: 17,4
SPD: 12,8
FW: 10,6
AfD: 10,3
FDP: 5,4

Linke: 4,6
Others: 4,7

[mvd10]

CSU 33%
Greens 18%
AfD 13%
SPD 11%
FW 10%
FDP 6%
Linke 4%

Turnout: 67%

[jaichind]

CSU     33.3%
Greens 17.5%
AfD      14.5%
SPD     10.4%
FW        9.6%
FDP       6.1%
Linke     4.0%

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In case you didn't know, there are three peculiarities in the Bavarian election system:

1.) As distinguished from federal elections, both the first and the second votes determine the distribution of seats. Id est, if all direct candidates from Party X receive 100,000 first votes in one of the seven administrative districts, and Party X as a whole receives 120,000 second votes in that administrative district, that party has received 220,000 votes in total in that administrative region. With that said, the votes for a losing direct candidate don't go lost, thus encouraging more citizens to vote for third-party candidates.

2.) If a direct candidate from Party X theoretically wins his constituency (= "Stimmkreis"), but his party X fails to meet the statewide 5% threshold, that candidate loses his seat and has to hand it over to the runner-up.

3.) There are no statewide party lists for the second vote, but only region-wide lists:
Upper Bavaria · Lower Bavaria · Upper Palatinate · Upper Franconia · Middle Franconia · Lower Franconia · Swabia
That's basically the way how federal elections work.
Buuuuut: There are no statewide overhang and leveling seats; they are allocated only region-wide, thus leading to an excessive representation of an administrative region with many additional seats in the Bavarian Landtag.

Here is the list of the number of seats and constituencies for each administrative district:



4.) Unlike in federal elections and most other state elections, the party lists aren't "closed", but "open"; i.e. you can give your second vote to a certain person on the candidates' list and therefore change the predefined order of the candidates. Only Bremen and Hamburg offer that option also.

[Polkergeist]

2.) If a direct candidate from Party X theoretically wins his constituency (= "Stimmkreis"), but his party X fails to meet the statewide 5% threshold, that candidate loses his seat and has to hand it over to the runner-up.

Have there been any famous and controversial cases where this has occurred?

Does this apply to independent candidates?

4.) Unlike in federal elections and most other state elections, the party lists aren't "closed", but "open"; i.e. you can give your second vote to a certain person on the candidates' list and therefore change the predefined order of the candidates. Only Bremen and Hamburg offer that option also.

I understand that candidates who run in constituencies and also region-wide for the second vote, they;

• are not on the regional second-vote ballot in their constituency
• when ranking the elected members from their party's second vote list, have their first constituency votes included*

* assuming the candidate did not win their constituency


Have I got this right?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

2.) If a direct candidate from Party X theoretically wins his constituency (= "Stimmkreis"), but his party X fails to meet the statewide 5% threshold, that candidate loses his seat and has to hand it over to the runner-up.

Have there been any famous and controversial cases where this has occurred?

Sorry, I don't know. But I'll gen up on it.

Does this apply to independent candidates?

Independent candidates are not allowed in Bavarian state elections.
Only political parties and voters' associations can take part in those election, and they have to run a direct candidate in at least one Stimmkreis in an administrative region in order to be able to run a party list in that region.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

4.) Unlike in federal elections and most other state elections, the party lists aren't "closed", but "open"; i.e. you can give your second vote to a certain person on the candidates' list and therefore change the predefined order of the candidates. Only Bremen and Hamburg offer that option also.

I understand that candidates who run in constituencies and also region-wide for the second vote, they;

• are not on the regional second-vote ballot in their constituency

No, no, quite the contrary. The region-wide party list even has to include all Stimmkreis candidates.

• when ranking the elected members from their party's second vote list, have their first constituency votes included*

* assuming the candidate did not win their constituency


Have I got this right?

No. The votes for the direct candidate go to his party as a whole.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here's a line chart showing the outcomes of each past Bavarian state election:

[Polkergeist]

Does this apply to independent candidates?

Independent candidates are not allowed in Bavarian state elections.
Only political parties and voters' associations can take part in those election, and they have to run a direct candidate in at least one Stimmkreis in an administrative region in order to be able to run a party list in that region.

Thank you for your answers, I appreciate it!

Are the Free Voters of Bavaria a party or a voter association?

Are there any other voter associations?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Does this apply to independent candidates?

Independent candidates are not allowed in Bavarian state elections.
Only political parties and voters' associations can take part in those election, and they have to run a direct candidate in at least one Stimmkreis in an administrative region in order to be able to run a party list in that region.

Thank you for your answers, I appreciate it!

Are the Free Voters of Bavaria a party or a voter association?

Are there any other voter associations?

My pleasure!

The Free Voters used to be a voters' associations, but they became a party after their huge 2008 success in order to be able to run in the 2009 federal election (where only genuine parties are allowed to participate).
There are 18 parties competing in the Bavarian Landtag election, twelve of which are running in each of the seven administrative regions. Each of them is a genuine party, none of them a voters' association.
Here are all 18 parties, sorted by the order on the ballot:

    Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (CSU)
    Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD)
    Freie Wähler (FREIE WÄHLER)
    Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (GRÜNE)
    Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP)
    Die Linke (DIE LINKE)
    Bayernpartei (BP)
    Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (ÖDP)
    Piratenpartei Deutschland (PIRATEN)
    Partei für Franken (DIE FRANKEN) (kandidiert nur in Mittelfranken und Unterfranken)
    Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
    Liberal-Konservative Reformer (LKR) (kandidieren nur in Oberbayern und Schwaben)
    mut
    Partei der Humanisten (Die Humanisten) (kandidiert nur in Oberbayern)
    Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative (Die PARTEI) (kandidiert nicht in Niederbayern)
    Partei für Gesundheitsforschung (Gesundheitsforschung) (kandidiert nur in Oberbayern, Oberpfalz, Oberfranken und Mittelfranken)
    Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (Tierschutzpartei) (kandidiert nur in Oberbayern, Niederbayern und Unterfranken)
    V-Partei³ – Partei für Veränderung, Vegetarier und Veganer (V-Partei³)

[EPG]

In case you didn't know, there are three peculiarities in the Bavarian election system:

Thanks. It looks like a system designed by a dominant party. 1 ensures the direct votes help CSU to top-up list votes. 2 theoretically helps the largest parties most often. 4 rewards parties with ideologically diverse candidates. Even 3, I suppose, gives CSU overhang seats in Franconia.

[republicanbayer]

4.) Unlike in federal elections and most other state elections, the party lists aren't "closed", but "open"; i.e. you can give your second vote to a certain person on the candidates' list and therefore change the predefined order of the candidates. Only Bremen and Hamburg offer that option also.

I understand that candidates who run in constituencies and also region-wide for the second vote, they;

• are not on the regional second-vote ballot in their constituency

No, no, quite the contrary. The region-wide party list even has to include all Stimmkreis candidates.

Nope, Polkergeist is right. Candidates who are on the first-vote ballot are not on the regional party list in their constituency. They're on the regional party list in every other constituency. That means that you have slightly different party lists in every constituency. If a certain party has e.g. 20 candidates on their list, only 19 of them will appear on every ballot, because the candidate running on the first-vote ballot is simply left out on the party list in his constituency.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In case you didn't know, there are three peculiarities in the Bavarian election system:

Thanks. It looks like a system designed by a dominant party. 1 ensures the direct votes help CSU to top-up list votes. 2 theoretically helps the largest parties most often. 4 rewards parties with ideologically diverse candidates. Even 3, I suppose, gives CSU overhang seats in Franconia.

1 actually helps smaller parties, cause more people dare to vote for them when they know that they don't throw away their vote.
2, yes definitely.
3 will in the first instance make the new Landtag yuuuuge, and in second instance, yes, help the CSU. If the strongest party receives relatively few votes, but many more than the runner-up, and if the 2nd and 3rd place are close to one another, it will lead to an overrepresentation of that region in the Landtag.
It almost seems like, a bad outcome for the party will help them.

And btw, thanks for reminding me that I'm too stupid to count.

[republicanbayer]

Does this apply to independent candidates?

Independent candidates are not allowed in Bavarian state elections.
Only political parties and voters' associations can take part in those election, and they have to run a direct candidate in at least one Stimmkreis in an administrative region in order to be able to run a party list in that region.

Thank you for your answers, I appreciate it!

Are the Free Voters of Bavaria a party or a voter association?

Are there any other voter associations?

There are many voter associations running in municipal elections. Most of them are similar to the Freie Wähler. They're not so much about ideology, but more about the people running on their lists. Especially in rural areas people vote for candidates they know, not necessarily candidates they agree with on the issues and the voter associations help candidates who aren't politicians but want to run for local office.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kommunalwahlen_in_Bayern_2014
According to Wikipedia voter associations got 15.3% of the vote in the Bavarian municipal elections 2014, which seems pretty high to me, especially since Freie Wähler only got 3.9%. Maybe some Freie Wähler-lists ran as voter associations and not as the Freie Wähler party, idk.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

4.) Unlike in federal elections and most other state elections, the party lists aren't "closed", but "open"; i.e. you can give your second vote to a certain person on the candidates' list and therefore change the predefined order of the candidates. Only Bremen and Hamburg offer that option also.

I understand that candidates who run in constituencies and also region-wide for the second vote, they;

• are not on the regional second-vote ballot in their constituency

No, no, quite the contrary. The region-wide party list even has to include all Stimmkreis candidates.

Nope, Polkergeist is right. Candidates who are on the first-vote ballot are not on the regional party list in their constituency. They're on the regional party list in every other constituency. That means that you have slightly different party lists in every constituency. If a certain party has e.g. 20 candidates on their list, only 19 of them will appear on every ballot, because the candidate running on the first-vote ballot is simply left out on the party list in his constituency.

Okay, I relied on German Wikipedia. It says:
"Die Wahlkreisliste ist von einer Mitglieder- oder Vertreterversammlung der Partei oder Wählergruppe aufzustellen. Die Liste muss alle ihre Stimmkreisbewerber enthalten, die von Mitglieder- oder Vertreterversammlungen in den jeweiligen Stimmkreisen gewählt worden sind."

However, its explanation si also a bit internally inconsistent:
"Die Aufstellungsversammlung kann auf Wahlkreisebene weitere Bewerber wählen. Die Liste darf höchstens so viele Bewerber enthalten, wie im Wahlkreis Sitze zu vergeben sind. Jede Liste muss mindestens einen Stimmkreisbewerber enthalten. Die Aufstellungsversammlung kann, muss aber nicht die Reihenfolge der Kandidaten bestimmen."

[republicanbayer]

4.) Unlike in federal elections and most other state elections, the party lists aren't "closed", but "open"; i.e. you can give your second vote to a certain person on the candidates' list and therefore change the predefined order of the candidates. Only Bremen and Hamburg offer that option also.

I understand that candidates who run in constituencies and also region-wide for the second vote, they;

• are not on the regional second-vote ballot in their constituency

No, no, quite the contrary. The region-wide party list even has to include all Stimmkreis candidates.

Nope, Polkergeist is right. Candidates who are on the first-vote ballot are not on the regional party list in their constituency. They're on the regional party list in every other constituency. That means that you have slightly different party lists in every constituency. If a certain party has e.g. 20 candidates on their list, only 19 of them will appear on every ballot, because the candidate running on the first-vote ballot is simply left out on the party list in his constituency.

Okay, I relied on German Wikipedia. It says:
"Die Wahlkreisliste ist von einer Mitglieder- oder Vertreterversammlung der Partei oder Wählergruppe aufzustellen. Die Liste muss alle ihre Stimmkreisbewerber enthalten, die von Mitglieder- oder Vertreterversammlungen in den jeweiligen Stimmkreisen gewählt worden sind."

However, its explanation si also a bit internally inconsistent:
"Die Aufstellungsversammlung kann auf Wahlkreisebene weitere Bewerber wählen. Die Liste darf höchstens so viele Bewerber enthalten, wie im Wahlkreis Sitze zu vergeben sind. Jede Liste muss mindestens einen Stimmkreisbewerber enthalten. Die Aufstellungsversammlung kann, muss aber nicht die Reihenfolge der Kandidaten bestimmen."

Yeah, the election system is a bit of a mess. We also have elections for the Bezirkstag today, the seven parliaments of the Bavarian regions and I have no clue what they're good for (FDP wants to abolish them) and how to vote in that election.