German Elections & Politics

[jaichind]

I think this will be the first election where even a Grand Coalition is not enough for a majority ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxony-Anhalt_state_election,_2016

Ah .. forgot about that one.  Yes, no grand coalition majority is much more likely to be in the East given the relative strength of Left and AfD there ...

[President Johnson]

I think this will be the first election where even a Grand Coalition is not enough for a majority ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxony-Anhalt_state_election,_2016

Ah .. forgot about that one.  Yes, no grand coalition majority is much more likely to be in the East given the relative strength of Left and AfD there ...

Same is true here in Baden-Württemberg. In the 2016 state election, CDU and SPD lost a combined 22 points compared to 2011. The state has de facto a grand coalition anyway, with the Greens and CDU in government.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I think this will be the first election where even a Grand Coalition is not enough for a majority ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxony-Anhalt_state_election,_2016

Ah .. forgot about that one.  Yes, no grand coalition majority is much more likely to be in the East given the relative strength of Left and AfD there ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baden-W%C3%BCrttemberg_state_election,_2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_state_election,_2016

But it's also a question of how you define a grand coalition. The media should start defining it as a coalition between the two biggest parties instead of a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's a shame that Sepp Daxenberger isn't around anymore.

Wasn't he reported to be unable to cope with his duties of being mayor?

[palandio]

It's a shame that Sepp Daxenberger isn't around anymore.

Wasn't he reported to be unable to cope with his duties of being mayor?

Source? As far as I know, he served two full terms (twelve years) as mayor. I don't know about the last two years or so, apparently his cancer caused his condition to go up and down.

[rob in cal]

  Some fun stats to watch, 1) does FW do better than the SPD, and 2) does AFD beat the combinations of SPD and Linke and SPD and FDP. Also do Greens beat SPD, Linke and FDP combined.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's a shame that Sepp Daxenberger isn't around anymore.

Wasn't he reported to be unable to cope with his duties of being mayor?

Source? As far as I know, he served two full terms (twelve years) as mayor. I don't know about the last two years or so, apparently his cancer caused his condition to go up and down.

I saw it in a documentary about Daxenberger during the time of his decease. A Green politician governing a Bavarian town was a novelty at that time, and his party had to learn how to administer a municipality.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Probably the final poll ahead of the very important Bayern state election on Sunday:

I'm so exciting to see the eventual AfD result.
I have never seen such volatile poll numbers for a party...

[rob in cal]

  Also, will soft Linke voters gravitate toward the Greens or SPD out of fear of their party votes being wasted due to the 5% threshold?

[bigic]

Or maybe the opposite could happen - some SPD and Green supporters would tactically vote Linke because it's just under threshold according to the polls? Although paradoxically it could make building an anti-CSU Green-led coalition harder because FDP and Linke refuse to work with each other.

[palandio]

The normal case during the last years has been that the Linke polled at ca. 5% in the big Western German states before the regional elections, only to then fall short of the threshold (notable exception: Hesse).

It really depends. The federal election results for the Linke have been quite good for them (in Western Germany), but until proven otherwise I still would assume many of the new Linke voters not to be reliable.

Expect something like 3.5% Linke in Bavaria.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The normal case during the last years has been that the Linke polled at ca. 5% in the big Western German states before the regional elections, only to then fall short of the threshold (notable exception: Hesse).

It really depends. The federal election results for the Linke have been quite good for them (in Western Germany), but until proven otherwise I still would assume many of the new Linke voters not to be reliable.

Expect something like 3.5% Linke in Bavaria.

I think that's because the Linke's party manifesto addresses country-wide and East German problems. It's not a party for state-wide issues (at least in the West).

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that the Green record results in Bayern (and elsewhere) might not only have to do with the crappy so-called "Grand Coalition" in Berlin, but they also benefit from the deeply environmental, activist issue of resisting the destruction of the Hambach Forest.

[PSOL]

Well this is interesting...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-migrants-bavaria-insight/behind-bavarias-harsh-rhetoric-schools-offer-migrants-warm-welcome-idUSKCN1ML0ZX

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They state that 80-85% pass vocational exams and other good tidbits. Good to see the bright future for them and the collapse of the CSU in favor of a greener future.

In other news AFD tells kids to deny reality at schools
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/11/afd-tells-german-pupils-to-denounce-teachers-who-discuss-political-views

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[palandio]

[...]
They state that 80-85% pass vocational exams and other good tidbits.  Good to see the bright future for them and the collapse of the CSU in favor of a greener future.
[...]

Keep in mind that the positive numbers refer to the minority who actually persues vocational training and that this is the result of a concentrated effort by politics, enterprises and schools in an economically prosperous region governed by the CSU.
In fact one could be quite sad that the pragmatic CSU is getting punished and that voters prefer AfD (less integration) or Greens (more uncontrolled immigration means less attention to the single immigrant means less integration).

[Tender Branson]

Well this is interesting...

Of course children of asylum seekers, or those who came as underage asylum seekers on their own to Germany, Austria, Sweden etc. should receive education like all the others here.

But only until their time is up.

Asylum is only granted for a certain time until the situation in their home countries improve.

Considering that the situation in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan has improved significantly this year, most of the refugees should be deported again by now.

With the skills they learned in our countries, they can rebuild their own countries from the rubble.

[rob in cal]

  If the SPD does as badly as predicted, this could perhaps mean more declines in the future, as more and more left leaning voters go toward the Greens, especially if the migrant/national identity debates are big electoral issues. A sort of reverse bandwagon effect.

[PSOL]

[...]
They state that 80-85% pass vocational exams and other good tidbits.  Good to see the bright future for them and the collapse of the CSU in favor of a greener future.
[...]

Keep in mind that the positive numbers refer to the minority who actually persues vocational training and that this is the result of a concentrated effort by politics, enterprises and schools in an economically prosperous region governed by the CSU.
In fact one could be quite sad that the pragmatic CSU is getting punished and that voters prefer AfD (less integration) or Greens (more uncontrolled immigration means less attention to the single immigrant means less integration).

Most immigrants do want to integrate, as stated here and elsewhere. The lazy colored person schtick is nothing but an excuse to implement austerity. I would have thought the Euros here would have discovered that from being on a US political board, but alas.

[Tender Branson]

[...]
They state that 80-85% pass vocational exams and other good tidbits.  Good to see the bright future for them and the collapse of the CSU in favor of a greener future.
[...]

Keep in mind that the positive numbers refer to the minority who actually persues vocational training and that this is the result of a concentrated effort by politics, enterprises and schools in an economically prosperous region governed by the CSU.
In fact one could be quite sad that the pragmatic CSU is getting punished and that voters prefer AfD (less integration) or Greens (more uncontrolled immigration means less attention to the single immigrant means less integration).

Most immigrants do want to integrate, as stated here and elsewhere. The lazy colored person schtick is nothing but an excuse to implement austerity. I would have thought the Euros here would have discovered that from being on a US political board, but alas.

No, you can have both: apply the thumbscrews on migrants who decide not to integrate, become criminal or to exploit the welfare state, by deporting them or otherwise crack down hard on them + have no austerity in place (see Austria right now).

[PSOL]

[...]
They state that 80-85% pass vocational exams and other good tidbits.  Good to see the bright future for them and the collapse of the CSU in favor of a greener future.
[...]

Keep in mind that the positive numbers refer to the minority who actually persues vocational training and that this is the result of a concentrated effort by politics, enterprises and schools in an economically prosperous region governed by the CSU.
In fact one could be quite sad that the pragmatic CSU is getting punished and that voters prefer AfD (less integration) or Greens (more uncontrolled immigration means less attention to the single immigrant means less integration).

Most immigrants do want to integrate, as stated here and elsewhere. The lazy colored person schtick is nothing but an excuse to implement austerity. I would have thought the Euros here would have discovered that from being on a US political board, but alas.

No, you can have both: apply the thumbscrews on migrants who decide not to integrate, become criminal or to exploit the welfare state, by deporting them or otherwise crack down hard on them + have no austerity in place (see Austria right now).

Literally all Austria has done is handwringing compiles with banning Turkish in vocational training, further indebting people that would have learned Austrian at a quicker pace if they were financially secure. As I said before, OVP is holding major changes back in a long game.

[palandio]

[...]
They state that 80-85% pass vocational exams and other good tidbits.  Good to see the bright future for them and the collapse of the CSU in favor of a greener future.
[...]

Keep in mind that the positive numbers refer to the minority who actually persues vocational training and that this is the result of a concentrated effort by politics, enterprises and schools in an economically prosperous region governed by the CSU.
In fact one could be quite sad that the pragmatic CSU is getting punished and that voters prefer AfD (less integration) or Greens (more uncontrolled immigration means less attention to the single immigrant means less integration).

Most immigrants do want to integrate, as stated here and elsewhere. The lazy colored person schtick is nothing but an excuse to implement austerity. I would have thought the Euros here would have discovered that from being on a US political board, but alas.

I never said that the reason for the low employment of recent non-regular immigrants was them being lazy.

[Tender Branson]

[...]
They state that 80-85% pass vocational exams and other good tidbits.  Good to see the bright future for them and the collapse of the CSU in favor of a greener future.
[...]

Keep in mind that the positive numbers refer to the minority who actually persues vocational training and that this is the result of a concentrated effort by politics, enterprises and schools in an economically prosperous region governed by the CSU.
In fact one could be quite sad that the pragmatic CSU is getting punished and that voters prefer AfD (less integration) or Greens (more uncontrolled immigration means less attention to the single immigrant means less integration).

Most immigrants do want to integrate, as stated here and elsewhere. The lazy colored person schtick is nothing but an excuse to implement austerity. I would have thought the Euros here would have discovered that from being on a US political board, but alas.

No, you can have both: apply the thumbscrews on migrants who decide not to integrate, become criminal or to exploit the welfare state, by deporting them or otherwise crack down hard on them + have no austerity in place (see Austria right now).

Literally all Austria has done is handwringing compiles with banning Turkish in vocational training, further indebting people that would have learned Austrian at a quicker pace if they were financially secure. As I said before, OVP is holding major changes back in a long game.

I don't see this as a bad thing: the Austrian state should not subsidize driving lessons in Turkish. This only creates parallel societies. If Turks (and other immigrants) want to integrate into society, they should learn German for fu**s sake and they should not continue to live in their own fantasy world. If they want to do so, they can easily go back to their home countries.

Besides, ÖVP-FPÖ and to some extent the SPÖ before, have done a lot more (for Austria and Europe as a whole) in the past 2 years than what you post. More or less closed the Balkans route, when Merkel thought it wasn't possible (or needed), then pressured other EU leaders in the spring of this year to get something done in the central Mediterranean to keep people from drowning and keep the boats in Africa instead. Closing down radical Muslim mosques full of Saudi/Turk-funded hate-preaching imams, increased minimum sentences for rapists, introduced a knife carrying ban for asylum seekers, doubled deportations of rejected/criminal foreigners, lowered welfare payments to recently arrived foreigners etc. etc.

The only "austerity" I see right now is the austerity impacting criminal, non-integrating foreigners right now: they are decimated.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Tender Branson]

With those German-wide numbers, Sunday will be absolutely brutal for the CSU and SPD in Bayern, but it will also be a signal to the CDU in Berlin ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Opening a book on which polling firm goes with 'no one over 20% and everyone basically statistically tied'.