German Elections & Politics

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

And, of course, do not forget, that for many people the Left are still untouchable because of their history.

That doesn't hinder coalitions with the Left on the state level in Berlin, Brandenburg, or Thuringia, and it isn't really an obstacle for the federal level anymore.

The issue here is really foreign policy.

That and the person of Sarah Wagenknecht... who joined the SED in 1989 at the age of 19 shortly before the Wall fell, but is generally considered too extreme to form a coalition with. The other leaders of the Left (Bartsch, Kipping, Riexinger) are considered sufficiently moderate, but Wagenknecht is regarded as too much of an ideologue. Unfortunately, they made Wagenknecht their lead candidate for the upcoming election.

Isn't Wagenknacht to the (relative) right of her party on refugees, or am i mistaken?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Isn't Wagenknacht to the (relative) right of her party on refugees, or am i mistaken?

Wagenknecht is to the right of the CDU on refugees. Another reason why a coalition with her would be difficult.

On any other issue though she's in the left corner of her own party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And, of course, do not forget, that for many people the Left are still untouchable because of their history.

That doesn't hinder coalitions with the Left on the state level in Berlin, Brandenburg, or Thuringia, and it isn't really an obstacle for the federal level anymore.

Wouldn't the fact that those states are in the East play a role? I'm having a harder time imagining say, a conventional, middle aged civil servant being ok with his party cozying up to die Linke.

I don't really think so. The Left is governing in eastern states, because the party is electorally stronger there.

The fact that the Left is governing Berlin also means that she's in power in West Berlin. One of the two federal chairman of the Left is from West Germany. Bodo Ramelow, the Left's minister-president of Thuringia, is originally from West Germany. The line is certainly blurred.

[ApatheticAustrian]

wagenknecht is - like her husband oskar lafontaine, the former most dangerous man of europe - a left-national-populist.
.

[Lord Halifax]

wagenknecht is - like her husband oskar lafontaine, the former most dangerous man of europe - a left-national-populist.
.

[ApatheticAustrian]

wagenknecht is - like her husband oskar lafontaine, the former most dangerous man of europe - a left-national-populist.
.

the "most dangerous man" thing wasn't my idea. ;p

[Bumaye]

Three weeks ago Pollster Emnid saw a 16 point lead for the CDU/CSU over the SPD. Now only 4 points of that lead are left. Last time the SPD had 29% in an Emnid poll? November 2012.  
  
CDU: 33%  
SPD: 29%  
AfD: 11%  
Linke: 8%  
Grüne: 8%  
FDP: 6%  
  
R2G 45% - Rest 50%  
It's getting closer by the day.  
  
Today by the way Schulz probably gained some more votes. He for the first time criticized some points of the infamous Agenda 2010 and acknowledged that it was misused by some companies to reduce wages.

[MAINEiac4434]

wagenknecht is - like her husband oskar lafontaine, the former most dangerous man of europe - a left-national-populist.
.

the "most dangerous man" thing wasn't my idea. ;p

I had no idea there was a German version of the Sun.

[President Johnson]

Three weeks ago Pollster Emnid saw a 16 point lead for the CDU/CSU over the SPD. Now only 4 points of that lead are left. Last time the SPD had 29% in an Emnid poll? November 2012.  
  
CDU: 33%  
SPD: 29%  
AfD: 11%  
Linke: 8%  
Grüne: 8%  
FDP: 6%  
  
R2G 45% - Rest 50%  
It's getting closer by the day.  
  
Today by the way Schulz probably gained some more votes. He for the first time criticized some points of the infamous Agenda 2010 and acknowledged that it was misused by some companies to reduce wages.

Still doubt R2G is happening. I personally prefer a SPD-Greens-FDP coaltion (would actually like only SPD-FDP, but that isn't possible unless the Social Democrats gain another twelve points or so).

I even heard rumors that a poll is soon being released from Forsa/RTL Television that has SPD at 31%. #Schulzmentum

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Would the FDP really want to join a left coalition? Unless they have lingering hatred of Merkel for screwing them over, and want to gain revenge by kicking her out.

[DC Al Fine]

So why the sudden SPD uptick?

[President Johnson]

Would the FDP really want to join a left coalition? Unless they have lingering hatred of Merkel for screwing them over, and want to gain revenge by kicking her out.

They already have in Rhineland-Palatinate and endorsed Frank-Walter Steinmeier for president. The new chairman Chritian Lindner is more of a moderate and I think it could be possible. The FDP is definitely a more reliable force than Die Linke.

In my district are lot of Social Democrats, especially the young ones, who like the FDP more than Greens or Left. We have good relations with their youth organization as well. But that may be not representative. Our county party is more to the right within the SPD spectrum.

[IceAgeComing]

So why the sudden SPD uptick?

Shultz becoming the SPD lead candidate

[DL]

Realistically the only way Schultz becomes chancellor is if the SPD inches ahead of the CDU in which case he would be the chancellor in another grand coalition and I assume Merkel would then quit politics on the spot rather than be demoted to just being a cabinet minister

[palandio]

I have the feeling that this sudden SPD surge might be not so much about Schulz, but a combination of several factors:

- Before Schulz entered the race, many SPD sympathizers were in a state of resignation. They thought that the SPD had no chance anyway. And because of this they grasp at every potential game-changer.
- People want to save what they perceive as a "normal" political landscape, with two major forces that are both solidly supporting our liberal and democratic system, but at the same time are different enough and can actually be voted out without resorting to fringe alternatives.
- And finally, don't underestimate Merkel fatigue.

You might of course ask why these factors didn't count when Gabriel was still the expected SPD candidate. Well, sometimes political sentiments to transform into electoral movements need a catalyzing event. And Gabriel had become to unpopular and to much associated with the SPD being junior in the grand coalition.

[Bumaye]

I personally prefer a SPD-Greens-FDP coaltion (would actually like only SPD-FDP, but that isn't possible unless the Social Democrats gain another twelve points or so).

 
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umDr0mPuyQc 
 
That would be the end of the SPD for another 15 years. Schulz' campaign is based on social justice, higher wages, less temporary employment, fighting tax evasion, equal chances  and investing in infrastructure. All of that is fought against by the FDP. Yes, Wagenknecht and some other members of Die Linke are weirdos but in their political ideas they are the party that is the closest to the SPD. I mean how shall anyone trust the SPD when they again talk about all the topics I just mentioned and again form a coalition with a neo-capitalistic party like the CDU or the FDP while there is a socialist party ready to cooperate to get things done?

[jaichind]

New Insa poll, SPD surge to overtake CDU/CSU

SPD               31
CDU/CSU       30
AfD                12
Linke             10
Green              7
FDP                 6

[Tender Branson]

New Insa poll, SPD surge to overtake CDU/CSU

SPD               31
CDU/CSU       30
AfD                12
Linke             10
Green              7
FDP                 6

[ApatheticAustrian]

my point about INSA being horrible still stands.

12 points chulz effect? totally happening.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I love how that INSA poll is currently the headline on bild.de, but you have to pay bild.de to see the results of the poll.

[Beezer]

By the end of February the SPD will be at 75%.

[kyc0705]

By the end of February the SPD will be at 75%.

By Election Day they will be projected to win 10,000 seats in the Bundestag.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Ugh, Sigmar Gabriel you only had one job. One job!

[mvd10]

I don't like Schulz and ideologically I'm way closer to Merkel, but please kick her out. Please.


According to Wikipedia this is the first poll with the SPD in the lead since August 2011.

[DavidB.]

I don't like Schulz and ideologically I'm way closer to Merkel, but please kick her out. Please.

I totally understand what you mean, but it's not as if Schulz is going to be better. Reminds me of being glad Timmermans left as our Foreign Minister and then realizing Koenders is actually worse.