German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

28 is the new 26 ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

No spoilers, please!


Anyway, here's the Infratest shock poll:

CDU/CSU 34% (-1)
SPD 28% (+5)
AfD 12% (-2)
Greens 8% (-1)
Left 8% (+-0)
FDP 6% (+-0)

[Bumaye]

No spoilers, please!


Anyway, here's the Infratest shock poll:

CDU/CSU 34% (-1)
SPD 28% (+5)
AfD 12% (-2)
Greens 8% (-1)
Left 8% (+-0)
FDP 6% (+-0)

 
 
That's the highest numbers the SPD had in an Infratest Poll since September 2013. If the three left wing parties reach 30/9/9 it would be enough to win the election and it can certainly work out as it seems right now. Well, color me surprised. I honestly thought there was no chance for change as long as Merkel was running. 
 
Even more impressive then that surge are the numbers for a theoretical direct chancellor election in the same poll: 
 
Schulz: 50% (+14%) 
Merkel 37% (-7%) 
 
This is the first time since Merkel took office - reminder: That was in November 2005 - that she lost such a poll.

[MAINEiac4434]

No spoilers, please!


Anyway, here's the Infratest shock poll:

CDU/CSU 34% (-1)
SPD 28% (+5)
AfD 12% (-2)
Greens 8% (-1)
Left 8% (+-0)
FDP 6% (+-0)

 
 
That's the highest numbers the SPD had in an Infratest Poll since September 2013. If the three left wing parties reach 30/9/9 it would be enough to win the election and it can certainly work out as it seems right now. Well, color me surprised. I honestly thought there was no chance for change as long as Merkel was running. 
 
Even more impressive then that surge are the numbers for a theoretical direct chancellor election in the same poll: 
 
Schulz: 50% (+14%) 
Merkel 37% (-7%) 
 
This is the first time since Merkel took office - reminder: That was in November 2005 - that she lost such a poll.

I hope it sticks but it may just be a convention bump for Schulz.

[ag]

If the three left wing parties reach 30/9/9 it would be enough to win the election and it can certainly work out

What makes you think that Schulz would want to even consider a coalition with the Linke instead of the one with CDU? Ideologically, the gap between Merkel and him is infinitely smaller.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If the three left wing parties reach 30/9/9 it would be enough to win the election and it can certainly work out

What makes you think that Schulz would want to even consider a coalition with the Linke instead of the one with CDU? Ideologically, the gap between Merkel and him is infinitely smaller.

If the SPD ends up with fewer votes/seats than the CDU/CSU, but a coalition with Greens and Left becomes numerically possible, then such a coalition would be the only option for him to become Chancellor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course the question is whether this can be sustained or even turned into some sort of momentum, but it's certainly a shift.

[Beezer]

Which party should lead the next government?

[DL]

FWIW, even if the CDU remains the largest party and Merkel remains chancellor of a "grand coalition" - if the gap between the CDU and the SPD narrows vis-a-vis the 2013 election, i assume the SPD would get a larger proportion of seats at the cabinet table.

[President Johnson]

#Schulzmentum

FWIW, even if the CDU remains the largest party and Merkel remains chancellor of a "grand coalition" - if the gap between the CDU and the SPD narrows vis-a-vis the 2013 election, i assume the SPD would get a larger proportion of seats at the cabinet table.

If the CDU and CSU can't agree after the election (espcially on the refugee crisis), we could end up with a grand coalition of SPD-CDU. Under SPD leadership, because Social Democrats could surpass the CDU alone with these numbers in the high twenties. What's pretty remarkable is that a majority now says, SPD should government.

[Bumaye]

If the three left wing parties reach 30/9/9 it would be enough to win the election and it can certainly work out

What makes you think that Schulz would want to even consider a coalition with the Linke instead of the one with CDU? Ideologically, the gap between Merkel and him is infinitely smaller.

 
  
The fact that he visited some of the monthly so called "R2G-Trialogs" with politicians of all three parties to find a common ground for a coalition. It is no secret that some in the SPD would prefer Red-Green-Yellow but it is unlikely that the FDP will be strong enough for that.  
  
  
EDIT:  
  
Another INSA poll was just released. This time not an online poll but landline.  
  
CDU: 33% (+0,5%) 
SPD: 27% (+1%)  
AfD: 12% (-1%)  
Linke: 9% (-1,5%)  
Grüne: 9% (+1,5%)  
FDP: 6% (-0,5%)  
  
I think 45% for R2G is the highest I saw lately. That makes me moist.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Martin Schulz' candidacy helped to create some, um, interesting memes so far:

[Beezer]

So they're essentially just repurposing old Trump memes?

[Representative simossad]

So they're essentially just repurposing old Trump memes?

No, according to those who started this, this is a satire on what has happened in the US. It mocks the internet hype around Donald Trump and directly refers to him (big hands, "Hohe Energie"=high energy etc). But there are also some basic ideological prinicples attached to it, e.g. the replacement of the fanaticism about the border wall by the plan to build new bridges.

[ag]

If the three left wing parties reach 30/9/9 it would be enough to win the election and it can certainly work out

What makes you think that Schulz would want to even consider a coalition with the Linke instead of the one with CDU? Ideologically, the gap between Merkel and him is infinitely smaller.

If the SPD ends up with fewer votes/seats than the CDU/CSU, but a coalition with Greens and Left becomes numerically possible, then such a coalition would be the only option for him to become Chancellor.

And do you think he would want to be a Chancellor in a coalition with the Linke?

[ag]

If the three left wing parties reach 30/9/9 it would be enough to win the election and it can certainly work out

What makes you think that Schulz would want to even consider a coalition with the Linke instead of the one with CDU? Ideologically, the gap between Merkel and him is infinitely smaller.

 
  
The fact that he visited some of the monthly so called "R2G-Trialogs" with politicians of all three parties to find a common ground for a coalition.

That, by itself, should be a reason to vote for CDU or FDP (in Bavaria).

[Middle-aged Europe]

If the three left wing parties reach 30/9/9 it would be enough to win the election and it can certainly work out

What makes you think that Schulz would want to even consider a coalition with the Linke instead of the one with CDU? Ideologically, the gap between Merkel and him is infinitely smaller.

If the SPD ends up with fewer votes/seats than the CDU/CSU, but a coalition with Greens and Left becomes numerically possible, then such a coalition would be the only option for him to become Chancellor.

And do you think he would want to be a Chancellor in a coalition with the Linke?

It's not as much of a matter whether he wants to become Chancellor in a coalition with the Left. The issue is how hard he wants to become Chancellor.

[Beezer]

Well, if Berlin is anything to go by, a RRG coalition at the federal level could provide a Klöckner-led CDU with an outright majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, if Berlin is anything to go by, a RRG coalition at the federal level could provide a Klöckner-led CDU with an outright majority.

Andrej Holm resigned as secretary of state after only five weeks in office, prompting the CDU to call it the "worst start of a Berlin Senate ever" or some similar nonsense.

This only proved that the CDU is suffering from both amnesia and hyopcrisy.

The last time the CDU came to power in Berlin back in 2011, their own justice minister resigned after only one and a half weeks.

[Shadows]

If CDU/CSU forms strong alliances, why can't SPD form such understanding with the Left & the Greens in a broad leftist coalition to take on a more centrist CDU/CSU & the far right!

[ApatheticAustrian]

primarily cause "the left" has transformed into an even-more-fringe-party on the national level.

well, if the votes are there (highly unlikely) i guess the SPD would at least try it anyway.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The sticking issue is NATO, and also lingering discomfort over the East German legacy in Linke.

[ag]

If CDU/CSU forms strong alliances, why can't SPD form such understanding with the Left & the Greens in a broad leftist coalition to take on a more centrist CDU/CSU & the far right!

Because ideologically most SPD people are much closer to the CDU leadership than to the Left. And, of course, do not forget, that for many people the Left are still untouchable because of their history.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And, of course, do not forget, that for many people the Left are still untouchable because of their history.

That doesn't hinder coalitions with the Left on the state level in Berlin, Brandenburg, or Thuringia, and it isn't really an obstacle for the federal level anymore.

The issue here is really foreign policy.

That and the person of Sarah Wagenknecht... who joined the SED in 1989 at the age of 19 shortly before the Wall fell, but is generally considered too extreme to form a coalition with. The other leaders of the Left (Bartsch, Kipping, Riexinger) are considered sufficiently moderate, but Wagenknecht is regarded as too much of an ideologue. Unfortunately, they made Wagenknecht their lead candidate for the upcoming election.

[DC Al Fine]

And, of course, do not forget, that for many people the Left are still untouchable because of their history.

That doesn't hinder coalitions with the Left on the state level in Berlin, Brandenburg, or Thuringia, and it isn't really an obstacle for the federal level anymore.

Wouldn't the fact that those states are in the East play a role? I'm having a harder time imagining say, a conventional, middle aged civil servant being ok with his party cozying up to die Linke.