German Elections & Politics

[republicanbayer]

Furthermore, the SPD treacherously betrayed the blue-collar workers with the Blair-like "reforms".

Small defense of Blair (!) - he never did anything as blatantly economically right-wing Agenda 2010 (although he tried).

I think the impact of the Agenda on the SPD today is vastly exaggerated. In 2005, 2 years after the Agenda passed, there were still thousands of people protesting the harshest welfare cuts in our history week after week, we had a huge deficit, a stagnant economy, and an unemployment rate of 11.7%. Still, Schröder got 34% in the 2005 election. Yes, many voters left to the Linke, but why would those who voted for the Agenda-SPD in 2005 abandon them in 2018, after 13 years of almost unprecedented economic success, mainly thanks to the Agenda? (btw, the SPD hasn't lost a meaningful number of voters to the anti-Agenda Linke party in any of the recent elections)
If the SPD made any mistake regarding the Agenda, it's that they are ashamed of it. Compared to 2005, almost 7 million more people have a job today. These are Agenda-jobs and they could be SPD-jobs and SPD voters. But they aren't and that's the problem. The SPD is trying everything to distance themselves from their major accomplishment in 16 years of federal government.

Their decline is caused by terrible candidates (Martin Schulz), horribly governed states (NRW, Berlin, Bremen) and no policy ideas expect for gender neutral language and billions of welfare spending. Their party leader seems to be a grown up version of the "cash me outside" girl, their agenda is set by their SJW JuSo leader Kevin Kühnert and the foreign minister has lost three straight election in the joke state of Saarland before he got promoted to the federal level. Oh, and the guy called Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel, who is supposed to save them in the Hessen state election in 2 weeks, has lost this very election the last two times.

[republicanbayer]

AKK, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz are running for the party chairmanship so far.

AKK seems to be the frontrunner, but Spahn has been pretty popular among party delegates at the recent conventions. I'm wondering whether his job as Minister of Health hurt him, because he's not really doing a good job. And he's viewed rather unfavorable among non-conservatives.
I'd love to see Friedrich Merz as Chairman. He has become an outsider without any baggage, he could get a lot of former CDU-Voters back and isn't toxic to moderates either. And as a former rival of Merkel, he is the ultimate Anti-Merkel candidate.

[republicanbayer]

AKK, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz are running for the party chairmanship so far.

AKK seems to be the frontrunner, but Spahn has been pretty popular among party delegates at the recent conventions. I'm wondering whether his job as Minister of Health hurt him, because he's not really doing a good job. And he's viewed rather unfavorable among non-conservatives.
I'd love to see Friedrich Merz as Chairman. He has become an outsider without any baggage, he could get a lot of former CDU-Voters back and isn't toxic to moderates either. And as a former rival of Merkel, he is the ultimate Anti-Merkel candidate.

For a minute, I wondered whether Merz entered the race as a spoiler to Spahn.

Is a plurality enough to win? If so, they'd definitely hurt each other. Anyway, I could see one of them drop out and support the other. As long as Merkel stays on as Chancellor the party chairman will struggle anyways, because everything will stay the same with her and I doubt that anyone can pull the CDU out of their slump due to the GroKo.

[republicanbayer]

Honest question here, but why do people think the Grand Coalition is dead? Even if someone less Europhile then Merkel takes the reigns of leadership, its in the SPD's best interest to avoid new elections and the subsequent electoral wipe-out. Jamaica won't bail the Union out of a hole, especially if its the greens who stand to gain from new elections.

Because all three parties have crashed in the polls and in the last two state elections, especially the SPD, which is likely to never recover again; The encore soi-disant "grand coailition" would even get a majority if the federal election were held today, and the AfD has finally entered all 16 state parliaments.
All three parties have been in fierce dispute with each other since the beginning of the tenure half a year ago.

Yes but you haven't refuted my argument: the CDU/CSU prefers a 2.5 party government over a a 3.5 party or or one where they are out of power, the two option available in new elections are called. The SPD wants access to power and a greater share of the parliamentary seats, both things that go away with new elections. Basically what I am saying is that while the Grand Coalition is not working to the best of its ability, its the best of all possible options on the table.

SPD thinks that a more leftist platform is an answer to their problems while CDU will probably move to the right with a new party leader. Both parties would lose even more credibility and voters if they don't terminate the Grand Coalition at some point. I think they'd take mediocre losses and a fresh start in 2019 over a total disaster in 2021.

[republicanbayer]

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

Very clear, thanks - Spahn it is.

The difference between these two is so small that it doesn't matter. What matters is winning an election. I'm not sure if anyone can take the CDU back to 40%, but Spahn most certainly can't.

[republicanbayer]

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

Very clear, thanks - Spahn it is.

The difference between these two is so small that it doesn't matter. What matters is winning an election. I'm not sure if anyone can take the CDU back to 40%, but Spahn most certainly can't.

What matters is carrying out sound policies. Parties are instruments for that. Merkel won 41% or even more and subsequently opened the borders to the entire Middle East. I rather have a CDU at 33% with a solid right-winger. What's more, I am not at all convinced that a moderate like AKK would have more electoral success than Spahn. Someone like AKK would lose a lot of voters to AfD definitively. Real right-wingers would continue to vote for a wholly uncoalitionable party like AfD and the government continues to consist of a combination of fake right-wingers and left-wingers, which is the problem both Germany and the Netherlands experience right now. The CDU essentially has to choose between making Merkel's move to the center permanent or moving to the right again.

I think republicanbayer is referring to Merz being a lot more likeable than Spahn while being almost as conservative as Spahn on most issues. I believe Spahn is pretty unpopular with the broader electorate. I agree that a conservative CDU on 33% probably is better than Merkel's CDU on 41%, but I'd take a conservative CDU on 41% over a slightly more conservative CDU on 33%. The only realistic government that would be able to somewhat reverse Merkel's immigration policies is a CDU/CSU-FDP majority government (with a more conservative CDU chancellor) or maybe a strong CDU/CSU-FDP minority (45-50% of the seats) that can rely on the AfD without explicit negotiations for some legislation. Both scenario's would require the Union to approach 40%. That won't happen with AKK, Laschet or Merkel now so many Germans have been ''red-pilled'' by the AfD (for lack of a better word), but Spahn winning 30% wouldn't solve a lot of problems in the short term since he'd still need the Greens or the SPD in that case. Unless he decides to start negotiating with the AfD of course, but I don't know whether that's even remotely possible in the short run. Has the CDU/CSU electorate been polled on working with the AfD yet?

Then again, I don't know much about Friedrich Merz and I really don't know whether he would be a good leader.

Yes, thanks for clarifying. I'd obviously take Spahn over AKK. When it comes to Laschet and Spahn, I'm not so sure. Listening to them, Spahn is conservative while Laschet seems to be a moderate and an unconditional Merkel supporter. But Spahn hasn't done anything conservative as a Minister of Health, in fact he's been spending a lot of money and attacked the free market in the health sector. This German article sums it up pretty good: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/kommentar-jens-spahn-enteignet-ein-paar-firmen-15702154.html

Laschet on the other hand has been governing quietly and successfully with the FDP in North Rhine-Westphalia. A few weeks ago Christian Lindner said that he could work very well with Laschet as Chancellor. NRW has made some headlines with controversial deportations. Their Minister for Integration and Refugees, Joachim Stamp (FDP) is a hardliner and Laschet has never complained about him, so who knows how he would act as CDU Chairman.

[republicanbayer]

I prefer AKK to take over the CDU, because she's really likeable IMO.

Spahn and Merz seem too conservative and too radical on certain issues for my taste.

I agree with you. But let's be real: Merz will succeed Mutti.
I read that there are three minor, obscure candidates that wanted to challenge Merkel even before her announcement, but I can't find out who the are. Do you know more?

One of the minor candidates is Andreas Ritzenhoff, a businessman who joined the CDU less than a year ago. The second candidate is a law student from Berlin, but I don't remember his name. I know nothing about the third candidate.
I guess these candidates could've gotten up to 20% against Merkel. With three major candidates they're obviously irrelevant now.

[republicanbayer]

The second candidate is a law student from Berlin, but I don't remember his name. I know nothing about the third candidate.

His name is Jan-Philipp Knoop. The 26-year-old is known for being a harsh critic of Merkel's asylum policy, wanting to "get the situation under control again". His highest "office" in the CDU was "social media representative" in the Berlin chapter of Kleistpark.



He will definitely get more votes than RItzenhoff.
I swear I heard on the political TV broadcaster Phoenix that there was also a third candidate, but I can't find anything about him, either. 😕

Found him, it's Matthias Herdegen.
I'm not sure if any of these candidates will get any votes at all, especially if it's a close race. Why would anyone waste their vote on these guys?