German Elections & Politics

[President Johnson]

If Spahn or Merz had been chancellor in 2015 would they have reacted differently to the migrant crisis than Merkel?

Yes, They would have handled it like Sebastian Kurz and haven't opened the borders.

I'm not even sure AKK or Armin Laschet would have acted like Mutti did. Still hope Laschet jumps in and replaces Merkel as chancellor.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If Spahn or Merz had been chancellor in 2015 would they have reacted differently to the migrant crisis than Merkel?

Yes, They would have handled it like Sebastian Kurz and haven't opened the borders.

I'm not even sure AKK or Armin Laschet would have acted like Mutti did. Still hope Laschet jumps in and replaces Merkel as chancellor.

I could see him as party leader, but not as chancellor.
Schäuble is likelier to become head of government.

[mvd10]

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

Very clear, thanks - Spahn it is.

The difference between these two is so small that it doesn't matter. What matters is winning an election. I'm not sure if anyone can take the CDU back to 40%, but Spahn most certainly can't.

What matters is carrying out sound policies. Parties are instruments for that. Merkel won 41% or even more and subsequently opened the borders to the entire Middle East. I rather have a CDU at 33% with a solid right-winger. What's more, I am not at all convinced that a moderate like AKK would have more electoral success than Spahn. Someone like AKK would lose a lot of voters to AfD definitively. Real right-wingers would continue to vote for a wholly uncoalitionable party like AfD and the government continues to consist of a combination of fake right-wingers and left-wingers, which is the problem both Germany and the Netherlands experience right now. The CDU essentially has to choose between making Merkel's move to the center permanent or moving to the right again.

I think republicanbayer is referring to Merz being a lot more likeable than Spahn while being almost as conservative as Spahn on most issues. I believe Spahn is pretty unpopular with the broader electorate. I agree that a conservative CDU on 33% probably is better than Merkel's CDU on 41%, but I'd take a conservative CDU on 41% over a slightly more conservative CDU on 33%. The only realistic government that would be able to somewhat reverse Merkel's immigration policies is a CDU/CSU-FDP majority government (with a more conservative CDU chancellor) or maybe a strong CDU/CSU-FDP minority (45-50% of the seats) that can rely on the AfD without explicit negotiations for some legislation. Both scenario's would require the Union to approach 40%. That won't happen with AKK, Laschet or Merkel now so many Germans have been ''red-pilled'' by the AfD (for lack of a better word), but Spahn winning 30% wouldn't solve a lot of problems in the short term since he'd still need the Greens or the SPD in that case. Unless he decides to start negotiating with the AfD of course, but I don't know whether that's even remotely possible in the short run. Has the CDU/CSU electorate been polled on working with the AfD yet?

Then again, I don't know much about Friedrich Merz and I really don't know whether he would be a good leader.

[DavidB.]

Oh, fully agreed with that; just didn't interpret Republicanbayer's comment as a comparison to Merz. But if he's that more likeable/"electable" than Spahn while the policy difference is negligible, it's obviously worth it.

Government cooperation with AfD seems unthinkable; even a minority government relying on them seems not one, but a lot of bridges too far. Especially in a country where minority governments are unheard of and such constructions make people think of... other times of instability. AfD supporting such a government would make it even more unpalatable to people.

[republicanbayer]

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

Very clear, thanks - Spahn it is.

The difference between these two is so small that it doesn't matter. What matters is winning an election. I'm not sure if anyone can take the CDU back to 40%, but Spahn most certainly can't.

What matters is carrying out sound policies. Parties are instruments for that. Merkel won 41% or even more and subsequently opened the borders to the entire Middle East. I rather have a CDU at 33% with a solid right-winger. What's more, I am not at all convinced that a moderate like AKK would have more electoral success than Spahn. Someone like AKK would lose a lot of voters to AfD definitively. Real right-wingers would continue to vote for a wholly uncoalitionable party like AfD and the government continues to consist of a combination of fake right-wingers and left-wingers, which is the problem both Germany and the Netherlands experience right now. The CDU essentially has to choose between making Merkel's move to the center permanent or moving to the right again.

I think republicanbayer is referring to Merz being a lot more likeable than Spahn while being almost as conservative as Spahn on most issues. I believe Spahn is pretty unpopular with the broader electorate. I agree that a conservative CDU on 33% probably is better than Merkel's CDU on 41%, but I'd take a conservative CDU on 41% over a slightly more conservative CDU on 33%. The only realistic government that would be able to somewhat reverse Merkel's immigration policies is a CDU/CSU-FDP majority government (with a more conservative CDU chancellor) or maybe a strong CDU/CSU-FDP minority (45-50% of the seats) that can rely on the AfD without explicit negotiations for some legislation. Both scenario's would require the Union to approach 40%. That won't happen with AKK, Laschet or Merkel now so many Germans have been ''red-pilled'' by the AfD (for lack of a better word), but Spahn winning 30% wouldn't solve a lot of problems in the short term since he'd still need the Greens or the SPD in that case. Unless he decides to start negotiating with the AfD of course, but I don't know whether that's even remotely possible in the short run. Has the CDU/CSU electorate been polled on working with the AfD yet?

Then again, I don't know much about Friedrich Merz and I really don't know whether he would be a good leader.

Yes, thanks for clarifying. I'd obviously take Spahn over AKK. When it comes to Laschet and Spahn, I'm not so sure. Listening to them, Spahn is conservative while Laschet seems to be a moderate and an unconditional Merkel supporter. But Spahn hasn't done anything conservative as a Minister of Health, in fact he's been spending a lot of money and attacked the free market in the health sector. This German article sums it up pretty good: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/kommentar-jens-spahn-enteignet-ein-paar-firmen-15702154.html

Laschet on the other hand has been governing quietly and successfully with the FDP in North Rhine-Westphalia. A few weeks ago Christian Lindner said that he could work very well with Laschet as Chancellor. NRW has made some headlines with controversial deportations. Their Minister for Integration and Refugees, Joachim Stamp (FDP) is a hardliner and Laschet has never complained about him, so who knows how he would act as CDU Chairman.

[palandio]

Spahn is not very popular, that's right.

But Merz hasn't been tested for the last 10-15 years. He gets the conservative base excited exactly because of his absence. I don't believe that he is the charismatic vote-getter until proven otherwise.

[Yeahsayyeah]

And he was not very likeable then, btw.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[PSOL]

Can someone tell me about the most northern Green win in the south of Hesse (or the county on the left of the close up)?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Part of Frankfurt, includes the Bockenheim borough which is a very strong area for the Greens and will be why they edged it.

Edit: or do you mean Darmstadt? Not sure what you mean by 'the south of Hesse'.

[PSOL]

Part of Frankfurt, includes the Bockenheim borough which is a very strong area for the Greens and will be why they edged it.

Edit: or do you mean Darmstadt? Not sure what you mean by 'the south of Hesse'.

Light green county to the left in the closeup. Or yes, Darmstadt.

This poll just came in:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/just-over-half-of-germans-think-the-spd-should-bail-on-merkel-poll-idUSKCN1N51CT

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Why does the SPD align itself with the CDU still. It has only caused left factions, and some right, to leave in droves.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Currently, an old 2008 article has been dug out and circulated, where Merz was advocating for the reduction of the social welfare ("Hartz IV") down to 132 €. He thereby quoted a study that had tried to appraise the amount of money that is necessary for German citizens to survive everyday life. Merz was anticipated that his proposal would prove popular among the worker class. He was also making reference to Nicolas Sarkozy, who had won against Ségolène Royal one year ago by propagating an alternative program to the Socialists.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Still hope Laschet jumps in and replaces Merkel as chancellor.

Nope. Laschet has declined today to run for party leader.

[mileslunn]

What were the party breakdowns for Frankfurt?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What were the party breakdowns for Frankfurt?

[Tender Branson]

I prefer AKK to take over the CDU, because she's really likeable IMO.

Spahn and Merz seem too conservative and too radical on certain issues for my taste.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I prefer AKK to take over the CDU, because she's really likeable IMO.

Spahn and Merz seem too conservative and too radical on certain issues for my taste.

I agree with you. But let's be real: Merz will succeed Mutti.
I read that there are three minor, obscure candidates that wanted to challenge Merkel even before her announcement, but I can't find out who the are. Do you know more?

[Tender Branson]

I prefer AKK to take over the CDU, because she's really likeable IMO.

Spahn and Merz seem too conservative and too radical on certain issues for my taste.

I agree with you. But let's be real: Merz will succeed Mutti.
I read that there are three minor, obscure candidates that wanted to challenge Merkel even before her announcement, but I can't find out who the are. Do you know more?

Why would or should I want to know more about 3 obscure candidates ?

It's not like they are getting more than 0.1% of the delegates ...

[republicanbayer]

I prefer AKK to take over the CDU, because she's really likeable IMO.

Spahn and Merz seem too conservative and too radical on certain issues for my taste.

I agree with you. But let's be real: Merz will succeed Mutti.
I read that there are three minor, obscure candidates that wanted to challenge Merkel even before her announcement, but I can't find out who the are. Do you know more?

One of the minor candidates is Andreas Ritzenhoff, a businessman who joined the CDU less than a year ago. The second candidate is a law student from Berlin, but I don't remember his name. I know nothing about the third candidate.
I guess these candidates could've gotten up to 20% against Merkel. With three major candidates they're obviously irrelevant now.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I prefer AKK to take over the CDU, because she's really likeable IMO.

Spahn and Merz seem too conservative and too radical on certain issues for my taste.

I agree with you. But let's be real: Merz will succeed Mutti.
I read that there are three minor, obscure candidates that wanted to challenge Merkel even before her announcement, but I can't find out who the are. Do you know more?

Why would or should I want to know more about 3 obscure candidates ?

It's not like they are getting more than 0.1% of the delegates ...

I think they are gonna drop out of the race in time. Do you still remember the four obscure candidates that decided to challenge Nahles earlier this year, only one of whom eventually competed against her: Simone Lange, who received decent 27.6%?
My favorite, Triple D - vocational school teacher Dirk Diedrich from Dithmarschen -, had dropped out way too early.

Once all candidates have officially announced their candidacies, I'm gonna make a poll about Merkel's succession as party leader.

One of the minor candidates is Andreas Ritzenhoff, a businessman who joined the CDU less than a year ago. The second candidate is a law student from Berlin, but I don't remember his name. I know nothing about the third candidate.
I guess these candidates could've gotten up to 20% against Merkel. With three major candidates they're obviously irrelevant now.

Thanks! 👍🏻

[RedPrometheus]

I prefer AKK to take over the CDU, because she's really likeable IMO.

Spahn and Merz seem too conservative and too radical on certain issues for my taste.

She's against gay marriage - that's not so likeable IMO :-P

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

One of the minor candidates is Andreas Ritzenhoff, a businessman who joined the CDU less than a year ago.

I just read an interview with him.

Ritzhoff (61) is a passionate proponent of the foundation of the "United States of Europe". He won't win. One of the reasons for his compassion for the EU is that he wants to fight against China's role in the world economy and the buyout of Germany companies by Chinese state-owned enterprises.
Furthermore, he speaks for more climate protection, more clean energy, more animal welfare and moreover for establishing primaries for electing party officials.
His occupation is leading a medium-sized Marburg company called Seidel GmbH & Co. KG, which is the world market leader in manufacturing aluminum design products.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The second candidate is a law student from Berlin, but I don't remember his name. I know nothing about the third candidate.

His name is Jan-Philipp Knoop. The 26-year-old is known for being a harsh critic of Merkel's asylum policy, wanting to "get the situation under control again". His highest "office" in the CDU was "social media representative" in the Berlin chapter of Kleistpark.



He will definitely get more votes than Ritzenhoff.
I swear I heard on the political TV broadcaster Phoenix that there was also a third candidate, but I can't find anything about him, either. 😕

[republicanbayer]

The second candidate is a law student from Berlin, but I don't remember his name. I know nothing about the third candidate.

His name is Jan-Philipp Knoop. The 26-year-old is known for being a harsh critic of Merkel's asylum policy, wanting to "get the situation under control again". His highest "office" in the CDU was "social media representative" in the Berlin chapter of Kleistpark.



He will definitely get more votes than RItzenhoff.
I swear I heard on the political TV broadcaster Phoenix that there was also a third candidate, but I can't find anything about him, either. 😕

Found him, it's Matthias Herdegen.
I'm not sure if any of these candidates will get any votes at all, especially if it's a close race. Why would anyone waste their vote on these guys?