Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[homelycooking]

A little present for T.B.:

[Tender Branson]

Amazing map !

Thanks a 1000 times, homely ...

[Tender Branson]

So, SPÖ and ÖVP will start their coalition talks today.

Possible "cow/horse-trades" ?

The ÖVP gives up their opposition to a comprehensive all-day school, which the SPÖ supports.

In turn, the SPÖ gives up their millionaire-tax (or any other new taxes in general), which the ÖVP opposes.

...

Another possibility:

The SPÖ gives up their opposition to university tuition fees, which the ÖVP wants.

In turn, the SPÖ gets their federal minimum wage for all economic sectors of 1500€ (which the ÖVP now opposes).

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ & ÖVP have decided to start coalition talks next week.

The 2 party leadership boards will meet on Monday to formalize it.

If the talks are quick, a new government is likely by early December - if not, then by Christmas or New Year.

The SPÖ leadership meeting is over and it voted overwhelmingly in favour of opening coalition talks with the ÖVP.

Only the Vorarlberg SPÖ-leader voted against: He wanted a broad coalition with ÖVP, Greens & NEOS.

The ÖVP meeting has just started.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/spezial/nationalratswahl-2013/sn/artikel/eine-gegenstimme-spoe-beschloss-koalitionsverhandlungen-mit-oevp-78226

[Tender Branson]

Very early outlook for the upcoming Vorarlberg state election:

2009 results: 51% ÖVP, 25% FPÖ, 11% Greens, 10% SPÖ, 2% GSI, 1% BZÖ

The big loser will be the ÖVP, because it's the first election of the "new" Governor Markus Wallner:



Wallner is not unpopular, he might actually be popular (but due to the lack of polls, I don't know).

But considering that the last election was fought and won by the former extremely popular long-term governor, it's only natural that the ÖVP will lose.

There's also another reason why the ÖVP will lose: NEOS.

The NEOS got 13% in the parliamentary election a few weeks ago.

NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz (who comes from Vorarlberg) will likely not be the front-runner in the state election. Therefore a similar result will also be unlikely (maybe 5-10%). But he'll appear on election posters I guess.

The FPÖ is likely to remain on a very high level, because they have a pretty good organisation in the state and a popular state leader. Vorarlberg is also the state with the 2nd highest share of foreigners in Austria (after Vienna), which also plays into the hands of the FPÖ there (FPÖ does usually well in places with a high amount of foreigners).

The Greens will lose to NEOS, like they did in the parliamentary election.

The SPÖ will play no role, like it was the case in any state election since 1945.

The Team Stronach was recently dissolved in Vorarlberg (see my post on the 1st page), because of infights and problems with Frank Stronach's dictatorial/bossy leadership style.

Maybe they will find new members ahead of the election, but it's not looking good for them. As of right now, TS said it will not run in the state election.

The BZÖ does basically not exist in Vorarlberg. They have an office there, but other than that no people, or people willing to run. And no money of course.

Maybe the Pirates will run too and get 1%.

Maybe some leftist block like the GSI in 2009 ...

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ & ÖVP have decided to start coalition talks next week.

The 2 party leadership boards will meet on Monday to formalize it.

If the talks are quick, a new government is likely by early December - if not, then by Christmas or New Year.

The SPÖ leadership meeting is over and it voted overwhelmingly in favour of opening coalition talks with the ÖVP.

Only the Vorarlberg SPÖ-leader voted against: He wanted a broad coalition with ÖVP, Greens & NEOS.

The ÖVP meeting has just started.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/spezial/nationalratswahl-2013/sn/artikel/eine-gegenstimme-spoe-beschloss-koalitionsverhandlungen-mit-oevp-78226

The ÖVP meeting has ended and the ÖVP voted unanimously in favour of coalition talks with the SPÖ.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1464457/OeVP-einstimmig-fuer-Koalitionsverhandlungen-mit-SPOe

[Tender Branson]

The 8 big chapters that SPÖVP will mainly negotiate about in their coalition talks:

* Education/Universities
* Taxes/(Budget) Consolidation
* Future (which means Family policy, science/research)
* Pensions
* Europe
* Safety and Justice
* Administrative Reform

[Tender Branson]

Now the Team Stronach knows how it feels when someone defects from their party (-> BZÖ to Stronach):

http://derstandard.at/1381368561086/Monika-Lindner-wird-freie-Abgeordnete

Monika Lindner, former (Austrian public broadcaster) ORF director who ran for the Team Stronach, will leave the Team Stronach and become an independent member of parliament.

Lindner, previously ÖVP-aligned, joined the TS in a "big coup" before the election to attract attention to the party.

But then Robert Lugar, the former TS club speaker in parliament, said that the party will "use her as a spearhead against the ORF."

This was enough for Lindner and after just 3 days in the party she said she would quit.

Until today it was not known though if she would still take her seat in parliament, or if she refuses and someone else from the TS list replaces her.

Many political commentators just saw Lindner as a trojan horse within the TS, that could now join the ÖVP parliament group (something she denies btw).

[bmw1503]

So, SPÖ and ÖVP will start their coalition talks today.

Possible "cow/horse-trades" ?

The ÖVP gives up their opposition to a comprehensive all-day school, which the SPÖ supports.

In turn, the SPÖ gives up their millionaire-tax (or any other new taxes in general), which the ÖVP opposes.

...

Another possibility:

The SPÖ gives up their opposition to university tuition fees, which the ÖVP wants.

In turn, the SPÖ gets their federal minimum wage for all economic sectors of 1500€ (which the ÖVP now opposes).

What exactly is the debate around schools about? Does the SPO want to eliminate the AHS/gymnasium in favor of a completely comprehensive secondary school system like the US or UK, or merely want to push back the age at which children are tracked?

[Zanas]

The 8 big chapters that SPÖVP will mainly negotiate about in their coalition talks:

* Education/Universities
* Taxes/(Budget) Consolidation
* Future (which means Family policy, science/research)
* Pensions
* Europe
* Safety and Justice
* Administrative Reform

So nothing on the environment huh ? Meh...

[Tender Branson]

The 8 big chapters that SPÖVP will mainly negotiate about in their coalition talks:

* Education/Universities
* Taxes/(Budget) Consolidation
* Future (which means Family policy, science/research)
* Pensions
* Europe
* Safety and Justice
* Administrative Reform

So nothing on the environment huh ? Meh...

The "big" chapters above are from the Spindelegger-press release.

The final coalition agreement for 2013-18 will of course have planned policies in the environmental areas as well.

[Tender Branson]

So, SPÖ and ÖVP will start their coalition talks today.

Possible "cow/horse-trades" ?

The ÖVP gives up their opposition to a comprehensive all-day school, which the SPÖ supports.

In turn, the SPÖ gives up their millionaire-tax (or any other new taxes in general), which the ÖVP opposes.

...

Another possibility:

The SPÖ gives up their opposition to university tuition fees, which the ÖVP wants.

In turn, the SPÖ gets their federal minimum wage for all economic sectors of 1500€ (which the ÖVP now opposes).

What exactly is the debate around schools about? Does the SPO want to eliminate the AHS/gymnasium in favor of a completely comprehensive secondary school system like the US or UK, or merely want to push back the age at which children are tracked?

The SPÖ wants ALL secondary schools in Austria (HS, NMS, AHS-Unterstufe) to offer all-day studying for students if at least 15 students (or their parents) in that school want afternoon lessons. The schools would then have to implement a comprehensive all-day studying plan for teachers/students.

The ÖVP on the other hand wants more choice for parents, students, headmasters - so that they can decide on their own if they want to remain in school only until the regular lessons are over (for example if their parents are at home and the students rather want to go soccer playing etc. in the afternoon), or study in school until evening when their (working) parents are at home again. Basically, the ÖVP doesn't like the words "mandatory all-day schools in all of Austria" that the SPÖ wants.

[Hash]

Could somebody explain what the Austrian education system is like, particularly the different types of middle and high schools?

[Tender Branson]

The first thing that the (current caretaker-government) SPÖVP will do now is to pass a 2014 budget swiftly.

http://www.format.at/articles/1342/930/367894/grosse-koalition-kein-budgetprovisorium

Just last week, Finance Minister Maria Fekter (ÖVP) said that because of the election and the coalition talks no budget could be passed in time for 2014 and warned of "US-style conditions" and that "provisional monthly budgets" would be needed if SPÖVP doesn't pass a real budget.

Both Faymann and Spindelegger brushed that thought away immediately and said that a new 2014 budget will be passed in the next weeks.

Provisional budgets are nothing unusual in Austria though after elections, because usually the new government passes them. Which means that if the government formation process would take until Jan/Feb/March of the next year, an automatic provisional budget kicks in by law (every month of the new year is funded by 1/12 of the previous year's budget).

Interesting fact: Finance Minister Fekter will not be in the ÖVP-negotiator-team for the coalition talks with the SPÖ that deals with Finances. Instead the Governor of Upper Austria will be the ÖVP's negotiator for Finances. A possible sign that Austrian ÖVP-leader Michael Spindelegger himself wants to be the next Finance Minister ?

[Tender Branson]

Could somebody explain what the Austrian education system is like, particularly the different types of middle and high schools?

No, but you can read it here:

http://www.bmukk.gv.at/enfr/school/schools.xml

http://www.bmukk.gv.at/enfr/school/bw_en/index.xml

[Tender Branson]

More details of the SPÖVP 2.0 coalition talks have been released today incl. the 8 "big topics", the subtopics and who will be the negotiators on each side:

* FINANZEN - Budget, Steuern, Entlastung, Schuldenabbau

Finanzstaatssekretär Andreas Schieder (SPÖ) - Oberösterreichs Landeshauptmann Josef Pühringer (ÖVP)

* WACHSTUM - Wirtschaft, Arbeit, Landwirtschaft, ländlicher Raum

Sozialminister Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ) - Wirtschaftsbundobmann Christoph Leitl (ÖVP)

* ZUKUNFT - Infrastruktur, Forschung, Umwelt, Energie, Jugend, Familie, Integration

Infrastrukturministerin Doris Bures (SPÖ) - Integrationsstaatssekretär Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP)

* BILDUNG - Bildung, Wissenschaft, Kunst und Kultur, Frauen

Beamtenministerin Gabriele Heinisch-Hosek (SPÖ) - Salzburgs Landeshauptmann Wilfried Haslauer (ÖVP)

* LÄNGER GESUND LEBEN UND ARBEITEN - leistbares Leben, leistbares Wohnen, Soziales, Pensionen, Gesundheit, Pflege, Menschen mit besonderen Bedürfnissen, Sport

Sozialminister Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ) - Wirtschaftsminister Reinhold Mitterlehner (ÖVP)

* ÖSTERREICH IN EUROPA UND DER WELT - Europa- und Außenpolitik

Klubobmann Josef Cap (SPÖ) - Außenstaatssekretär Reinhold Lopatka (ÖVP)

* SICHERHEIT UND RECHTSSTAAT - Landesverteidigung, Inneres und Justiz

Verteidigungsminister Gerald Klug (SPÖ) - Innenministerin Johanna Mikl-Leitner (ÖVP)

* STAATSREFORM UND DIREKTE DEMOKRATIE - Verfassung, Föderalismus, öffentlicher Dienst

Burgenlands Landeshauptmann Hans Niessl (SPÖ) - Seniorenbund-Obmann Andreas Khol (ÖVP)

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz (27), could become the youngest Austrian cabinet minister ever this year.



When he became State Secretary for Integration in 2011 at the age of 24, there was controversy because of his young age.

But he did a good job in the past 2.5 years and is now the 2nd most popular politician in Austria (after President Fischer) and the most popular cabinet member. He also got the most preference votes in the parliamentary election, more than Faymann and Spindelegger.

SPÖVP have said that they will cut the cabinet by 2 ministries and merge those 2 with other ministries (so they can say "we are a savings coalition").

Kurz could take over a newly created "Super-Ministry" for "Future Issues" (the coalition talks will show what this really means).

[Hash]

A Ministry for Future Issues? It probably sounds less silly in German, but the literal translation in English is pretty hilarious.

[bmw1503]

Sebastian Kurz (27), could become the youngest Austrian cabinet minister ever this year.

When he became State Secretary for Integration in 2011 at the age of 24, there was controversy because of his young age.

But he did a good job in the past 2.5 years and is now the 2nd most popular politician in Austria (after President Fischer) and the most popular cabinet member. He also got the most preference votes in the parliamentary election, more than Faymann and Spindelegger.

SPÖVP have said that they will cut the cabinet by 2 ministries and merge those 2 with other ministries (so they can say "we are a savings coalition").

Kurz could take over a newly created "Super-Ministry" for "Future Issues" (the coalition talks will show what this really means).

I met Kurz at an event several months ago, and he really seemed like a smart and decent guy.  The sort that could really broaden the OVP's appeal among at least some of the sort of voters they've lost to the Greens and NEOS.  And while a "Ministerium für Zukunftsfragen" does sound a bit silly, it's certainly the sort of platform that would give him a lot of opportunity to showcase  a more modern approach than the OVP might otherwise be able to muster

[Tender Branson]

The parliamentary election result is now OFFICIAL and FINAL (as expected, there have been no changes compared with the preliminary final result):

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/files/Verlautbarung_BWB_endgErg_inkl_3_Ermittlungsverfahren_NRW13.pdf

http://wahl13.bmi.gv.at

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/End_Gesamt.aspx

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/Mandatsspiegel_NRW_2013_4_Tag_nach_Wahltag_Wahlkarten_Vorl.pdf

Excel-file with data down to the town level:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/files/NRW13_endgueltiges_Gesamtergebnis.xlsx

Preference votes on the federal level:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/files/NRW13_Bund_VZ_Broschuere.pdf

Preference votes on the state level:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/files/NRW13_Land_VZ_Broschuere_Gesamt.pdf

[Tender Branson]

More (young) women and MPs with migration background will be in the next parliament after the new MPs are sworn in on Oct. 29

About 1/3 of all 183 MPs will be new on Oct. 29.

A few of the new (young) women and MPs with migration background:

Kathrin Nachbaur (future Team Stronach parliamentary club leader and Frank's "right hand")



Petra Steger (FPÖ, daughter of former Austrian FPÖ-leader Norbert Steger, who was defeated by Jörg Haider in the mid-80s in a spectacular coup that led to the rise of Haider)



Katharina Kucharowits (SPÖ)



Eva-Maria Himmelbauer (ÖVP)



Sigrid Maurer (Greens, was already Austrian National Student Union President before)



Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)



...

With migration background:

Asdin El Habbassi  (ÖVP, first Muslim in a Christian Democratic Party, of Moroccan origin)



Nurten Yilmaz (SPÖ, of Turkish origin)



Aygül Berivan Aslan (Greens, of Turkish-Kurdish origin)

[Tender Branson]

Eva-Maria Himmelbauer (ÖVP)

Now here comes the NERD ! Himmelbauer looks like:

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll (the 2nd poll so far after the election, plus changes compared with previous poll):



Sample = 400, poll was conducted Oct. 16-17

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Frank-fliegt-aus-Parlament/119413520

The collapse of the Team Stronach in the polls continues ...

"Others" are at 4%, which includes BZÖ, KPÖ and Pirates.

[Hash]

The Stronach family fails at politics forever.

[Tender Branson]

The Stronach family fails at politics forever.

Yepp, they should rather stick to horse-breeding and racing, as well as the car parts business.