WI-Gov: Top Dem recruit, Mary Burke, is in

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/07/mary-burke-scott-walker_n_4057221.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

Good news.

[Gass3268]

I posted this in my megathread Too bad I put this in the Congressional side.

[LeBron]

I was hoping Barca would run for a better chance to overthrow Walker, but still a great Democratic nominee nonetheless!

[PolitiJunkie]

Likely R

[Gass3268]

Likely R

I'd put it on the line between Lean and Likely R. Walker will probably win, but he won't win by much. Wisconsin is to polarized for that.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

No Ron Kind.

[PolitiJunkie]

Likely R

I'd put it on the line between Lean and Likely R. Walker will probably win, but he won't win by much. Wisconsin is to polarized for that.

Yeah, I guess there is a slightly larger chance of Dems picking up Wisco than NM or Nevada, but all three are unlikely and far from where the Democrats' gubernatorial order of priorities should be, which would look like this:

1. Pick up Pennsylvania
2. Pick up Florida and Maine
3. Defend Massachusetts and Connecticut
4. Pick up Michigan
5. Defend Illinois
6. Pick up Ohio
7. Defend Arkansas
8. Pick up Wisconsin
9. Pick up South Carolina
10. Pick up Arizona and Georgia
11. Pick up Nevada and New Mexico

The only reason Wisconsin is higher than Nevada and New Mexico is because Walker is more toxic to Generic D than Martinez or Sandoval, but all three have about the same probability as happening. Other than that specific instance, this list almost always considers plausibility and not importance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Walker mishandling of the unions may have misplayed his hand. The recall election had low voter turnout. Wisc or Ohio can switch party control. I don't think either one is perfectly safe.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ouch, looks like Walker will have to fight this one.

I'd put it on the line between Lean and Likely R. Walker will probably win, but he won't win by much. Wisconsin is to polarized for that.

^^^^

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Lean R.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

. The recall election had low voter turnout. Wisc or Ohio can switch party control.

Please explain.

[tmthforu94]

Polarization will make this race closer than it actually is - Burke has an uphill battle to convince that remaining few percent that she would be better.

[NerdyBohemian]

The recall was the dumbest move the Wisconsin Dems could have done. Yeah, I hate Walker too (being a public union member) but Walker didn't do anything shady or illegal which are legitimate reasons for a recall. All it did was make us look like sore losers and turn Walker into some kind of Republican legend.

[TX Conservative Dem]

My take is Republicans hold Wisconsin in 2014.

Democrats pick up Florida that's it

[ElectionsGuy]

My take is Republicans hold Wisconsin in 2014.

Democrats pick up Florida that's it

Pennsylvania??

[TX Conservative Dem]

Pennsylvania: I'm still holding out hope Corbett recovers and win reelection

[Morning in Atlas]

Now that Anthony Weiner is most likely out of politics for good, Corbett is now the most unpopular public figure in America, let alone the state. The transportation bill doesn't seem to be helping his approvals enough to propel him to reelection either.

Even the doomsayers and the cynics of the party think Corbett is likely to go down. And if you think he's going to lose at this point in the game, you're simply not living in reality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

. The recall election had low voter turnout. Wisc or Ohio can switch party control.

Please explain.

With the Dems looking likely to hold the senate, we definately will pickup MI and Pa, although WI and OH are tougher, if we gain enrodes in House we can take either one

As far as my comment about low turnout, Tea party turnout was much higher in 2010 and 2011 among GOP.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

. The recall election had low voter turnout. Wisc or Ohio can switch party control.

Please explain.

With the Dems looking likely to hold the senate, we definately will pickup MI and Pa, although WI and OH are tougher, if we gain enrodes in House we can take either one

As far as my comment about low turnout, Tea party turnout was much higher in 2010 and 2011 among GOP.

Walker did better in 2012 when there was an increase in turnout, even with less tea party turnout.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

To Democrats who think they'll beat Scott Walker, I have two words: Dream on.

I think the Dems' best shot is in Florida, South Carolina, or Pennsylvania (if Corbett makes it out of a primary.)

[ElectionsGuy]

To Democrats who think they'll beat Scott Walker, I have two words: Dream on.

I think the Dems' best shot is in Florida, South Carolina, or Pennsylvania (if Corbett makes it out of a primary.)

Forget South Carolina as well. They're better off trying in Ohio. But this race is definitely not assured. Burke can win this is Walker seriously messes up or its a bad national environment for the republicans.

[Cryptic]

Good to hear Burke is in. 

This race will be incredibly close and could go either way.  Wisconsin is highly polarized and anyone who thinks either candidate has a lock is lying to themselves. 

[pbrower2a]

Burke wins if the abrasive Scott Walker who inspired mass protests returns.

[DINGO Joe]

. The recall election had low voter turnout. Wisc or Ohio can switch party control.

Please explain.

With the Dems looking likely to hold the senate, we definately will pickup MI and Pa, although WI and OH are tougher, if we gain enrodes in House we can take either one

As far as my comment about low turnout, Tea party turnout was much higher in 2010 and 2011 among GOP.

Walker did better in 2012 when there was an increase in turnout, even with less tea party turnout.

Walker wasn't on the ballot in 2012.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

The recall election...