Did Mike Dukakis gain or lose electoral ground in the final weeks?

[sg0508]

I've read some conflicting things. It appears that he closed decently in the popular vote, but Bush ended up winning by a larger margin than predicted.  That being said, what about the electoral college? One would reasonably conclude that if he closed decently in the popular vote, he should have gained EVs.  That being said, I've read some books saying that Bush was actually pushing very hard in some of the democratic states, including Dukakis' own-MA and NY. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I remember him gaining near the end. If the campaign had been extended by a week, he may well have pulled it off.

I think he started gaining after his famous speech where he said, "This is garbage. This is political garbage."

[Dr. Cynic]

I remember him gaining near the end. If the campaign had been extended by a week, he may well have pulled it off.

I think he started gaining after his famous speech where he said, "This is garbage. This is political garbage."

I dunno if Dukakis could've pulled it off with an extra week. He may have flipped a couple of very close states like Pennsylvania though.

[old timey villain]

what really floors me about Bush's win is the fact that his electoral vote landslide doesn't really match up well with only an 8 point victory in the popular vote. I don't think Dukakis could have closed the gap in a week but if he had done 2-3 points  better he might have been able to grab California, Pennsylvania and Illinois which would have given him a lot more electoral votes.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

what really floors me about Bush's win is the fact that his electoral vote landslide doesn't really match up well with only an 8 point victory in the popular vote.

I think politics was more uniform throughout the country back then. The rural/urban split hadn't really happened yet.

[barfbag]

I remember watching youtube videos of the coverage which included a Dan Rather news report showing a CBS poll of Bush leading 48-46 during October. This would imply that he lost ground or at least Bush gained all of the undecided votes. However, usually the challenger gains ground or picks up the undecided votes and in 1988 Dukakis would've been in position of the challenger if there was one. He was very close to making it an electoral race by coming within three points in NM, PA, VT, MO, and IL.

[m4567]

From about 1920 to 1988, there was a trend of landslide electoral college elections mostly dominating.

I think the republicans were always going to win, but this should have been closer. The Iran-Contra scandal was still kind of fresh, and Bush not being the most exciting personality.

[ElectionsGuy]

I remember him gaining near the end. If the campaign had been extended by a week, he may well have pulled it off.

No.


I can't really say for certain whether or not he lost or gained ground. But the few polls that I've seen had a close Bush victory than the result, so he [Dukakis] probably lost ground.

[Mr.Phips]

Dukakis really didn't crater until that second debate in early October where he made the whole flap about the death penalty for someone who raped and murdered his wife. Before that, he actually wasn't doing the badly.  He was ahead in places like Arkansas and very close in some border states.  After that debate, he fell behind by double digits and was trailing everywhere but Massachussetts, Iowa. Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Minnesota I believe.  His comeback in the last two weeks likely gave him Wisconsin, West Virginia, New York, Oregon, and Washington.

[Napoleon]

I remember him gaining near the end. If the campaign had been extended by a week, he may well have pulled it off.

I think he started gaining after his famous speech where he said, "This is garbage. This is political garbage."

I like how you're old enough to remember this election but have the maturity of someone born sometime between Bush v. Gore and September 11.

[Mr.Phips]

The Bush camp was trembling in their boots as the polls closed on election day. Michigan at the top of the 8 o'clock hour and Ohio moments after was good news. Illinois was called for Dukakis and then given to Bush the morning after the election. Dukakis did well with women on the West Coast. I am blessed to have full length coverage of a series of American elections on DVD and '88 is my favorite besides '96 to watch.

Yes.  This was the first election with leaked exit polls and they were awful.  They had Dukakis fractionally ahead in the popular vote.

[Fuzzy Bear]

what really floors me about Bush's win is the fact that his electoral vote landslide doesn't really match up well with only an 8 point victory in the popular vote. I don't think Dukakis could have closed the gap in a week but if he had done 2-3 points  better he might have been able to grab California, Pennsylvania and Illinois which would have given him a lot more electoral votes.

Dukakis blew more than those states.  He blew Maryland, Connecticut, and Vermont.  He blew Michigan.  He was never really in the fight in Ohio, but he blew leads in a number of non-Southern states that made the blowout look bad.

[auburntiger]

Connecticut and Vermont I could see given they were still close to the national average and more of a republican history. Maryland doesn't make sense to me as to why any democrat should have lost that one. Even carter won that twice

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Connecticut and Vermont I could see given they were still close to the national average and more of a republican history. Maryland doesn't make sense to me as to why any democrat should have lost that one. Even carter won that twice

Maryland also had Bob Ehrlich. It wasn't always some liberal stronghold.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Washington probably switched on the last couple weeks, but besides that...

[Vega]

Best case scenario for Dukakis would be this:

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Best case scenario for Dukakis would be this:

I remember Kentucky being highly competitive. Kentucky turned out to be pretty close to the national result.

[Liberalrocks]

Dukakis would not have carried Arizona, it was highly republican then, even more so then its lean status in present time. I would switch Arizona for Pennsylvania which was very close margin in the actual results and could have easily swung to him.

[Vega]

Dukakis would not have carried Arizona, it was highly republican then, even more so then its lean status in present time. I would switch Arizona for Pennsylvania which was very close margin in the actual results and could have easily swung to him.

I disagree. There were roughly only 200,000 votes separating Dukakis and Bush. He could have won it (and other western states) if he put some umph into it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Dukakis would not have carried Arizona, it was highly republican then, even more so then its lean status in present time. I would switch Arizona for Pennsylvania which was very close margin in the actual results and could have easily swung to him.

I disagree. There were roughly only 200,000 votes separating Dukakis and Bush. He could have won it (and other western states) if he put some umph into it.

Arizona was one of the most right-wing states back then. Dukakis did much better in Kentucky and Missouri than he did in Arizona and Nevada.

[Vega]

Okay, so I did some revisions to my map.