Quebec 2014 - another election that never was

[Hatman 🍁]

I didn't realize it was so low. I would've guessed over 80%+/

I seem to recall McGuinty making it illegal to drop out of HS before turning 18.

[RogueBeaver]

Which doesn't solve the problem, as we all know. As for QC itself, I have yet to hear anything new from either major party on the subject of public education. Or any other subject really.

[Smid]

Still though, the Francophone rates for the province as a whole seem terrible. Is there any particular reason? Economic/social/cultural etc? How does that compare to other provinces' graduation rates?

Perhaps due to the number of francophone schools in rural areas? The anglo schools would be concentrated in Montreal and Hull/Gatineau? Perhaps others in cities, too, but the francophone schools would be in those cities but also through the rural parts of the province? Maybe it has more to do with the rural/urban divide than the anglo/francophone divide?

[RogueBeaver]

Population numbers? At any rate, the graduation rates are moving very slowly in the right direction. I don't think the root causes are different.

[RogueBeaver]

A bunch of Pelquistes don't want to retire despite Couillard's pressure to do so and allow younger people to step up. Not that our politicians have ever been particularly youthful. Most notably Henri-Francois Gautrin (Verdun, 70, 1989), Yvon Marcoux (72, Vaudreuil, 1998) Pierre Marsan (Robert-Baldwin, 1994, 65, he of the pay-to-place daycare scheme), Lawrence Bergman (NDG, 73, 1994) and a few other older gents. I think only those in their late 60s or older should be severely pressured. They're also running some deputies defeated last year.

[RogueBeaver]

Jean-Paul Diamond, the PLQ MNA for Maskinonge, will retire. Legault's staying.

BQ and PQ will campaign together.

PLQ has named Daniel Johnson as campaign chair, and they held a special caucus meeting over the weekend. Cabinet will be discussing a vote this week. After all, we're likely somewhere between D-16 and D-14.

[RogueBeaver]

Loi 99 will definitely be a campaign issue. Also, a very BFD: FTQ (our largest labour federation) is prepping a coup against Arsenault. QS wants the PQ to table the charter now. Agreed w/David here.
Meanwhile Payette is sort of ranting here about Catholicism, "la noirceur", feminism and assimilation of Muslim immigrants. Could almost play a drinking game. Very strong "strike your chains" crap too.

[RogueBeaver]

Cabinet will be meeting Friday to make the final decision.

[Zanas]

Jean-Paul Diamond, the PLQ MNA for Maskinonge, will retire. Legault's staying.

BQ and PQ will campaign together.

PLQ has named Daniel Johnson as campaign chair, and they held a special caucus meeting over the weekend. Cabinet will be discussing a vote this week. After all, we're likely somewhere between D-16 and D-14.

Is Daniel Johnson related to, well, Daniel Johnson ?

[RogueBeaver]

Jean-Paul Diamond, the PLQ MNA for Maskinonge, will retire. Legault's staying.

BQ and PQ will campaign together.

PLQ has named Daniel Johnson as campaign chair, and they held a special caucus meeting over the weekend. Cabinet will be discussing a vote this week. After all, we're likely somewhere between D-16 and D-14.

Is Daniel Johnson related to, well, Daniel Johnson ?

Yeah, Daniel Johnson fils and his brother Pierre-Marc are the sons of Daniel Johnson père. That family's been on all sides of Quebec politics.

[RogueBeaver]

New CROP: PLQ 38, PQ 34, CAQ 15, QS 8. PQ leads Francophones 41-26 again but only leads in ROQ 41-33. Jump-ball either way, I'd guess another PQ minority. Since dissatisfaction is 62/35, those numbers would need to move for any shot at a majority. As it is a complete tossup. CAQ seems to be collapsing, QS bleeding too. Yet paradoxically charter support is 50/41 and Marois is ahead of Couillard as preferred premier.

[DL]

New CROP: PLQ 38, PQ 34, CAQ 15, QS 8. PQ leads Francophones 41-26 again but only leads in ROQ 41-33. Jump-ball either way, I'd guess another PQ minority. Since dissatisfaction is 62/35, those numbers would need to move for any shot at a majority. As it is a complete tossup. CAQ seems to be collapsing, QS bleeding too. Yet paradoxically charter support is 50/41 and Marois is ahead of Couillard as preferred premier.

We know that when the PQ and Liberals are dead even, the seat advantage goes to the PQ due to the Liberal wasted votes in non-francophone seats etc... when the liberals are up by 3 or 4% it becomes a true tossup. HOWEVER, we should note that in virtually every single Quebec election - one thing is for sure - the support for the Quebec Liberals tends to be underestimated by a few points (last years polls had the PLQ averaging 27% at most and they surprised everyone getting over 30%)...this is due to the Liberals doing better among the elderly and among "shy federalists" etc... so I will predict that if the final polls of the campaign have the Liberals ahead by 4 points - they will probably win. I don't know if there is much chance of a minority - for that to happen there have to be a large chunk of seats going to a third party...CAQ may well be wiped out or at least reduced to a CAQ-like 5 or 6 seats and QS will probably just have 2 or 3...so it will only be a minority of the Liberals and PQ are literally within a handful of seats of one another.

[RogueBeaver]

We're almost entirely in agreement. PQ and CAQ numbers almost identical to '08, interestingly enough.

[RogueBeaver]

Updated the thread title because Lisee, Gendron and Marois herself are now unwinding a bit. Final decision will be this weekend. If there's a no I'll still keep the thread, because still likely the opposition finds an excuse next year.

[RogueBeaver]

308 projects the last CROP as 63 PQ, 59 PLQ, 2 QS and 1 CAQ (). Superb analysis on timing from Lessard.

[RogueBeaver]

RDI reporting that the PQ is preparing nomination meetings.

[Poirot]

did it say nominations for a future election in general or for a December election ?

[RogueBeaver]

They claim future election because "the government can fall at any time", but 48 nominations in a 2-week period that just happens to coincide with the dissolution window? I had forgotten that Charest had put out pro forma denials in '08 too...

[RogueBeaver]

PQ is still divided on whether to go or not. They think Legault would not be the turkey voting for Xmas and thereby support their spring budget.

[RogueBeaver]

Cabinet retreat has begun, it'll be today and tomorrow.

[RogueBeaver]

So Cloutier is the only open dove. Gendron and Lisée are coy, a reversal from their dovish stance earlier this week.

[Zanas]

What is exactly the dissolution window you mentioned ? You cannot dissolve parliament any time you want or make the government fall at any time ?

[RogueBeaver]

What is exactly the dissolution window you mentioned ? You cannot dissolve parliament any time you want or make the government fall at any time ?

The minority government can fall at any time, and Marois can dissolve at her prerogative. But a Dec. 9 election - the latest in our history and the last possible date this year due to holidays - would mean a dissolution no later than Nov. 6. Most likely Nov. 4 or 5 if they do go, right after the municipals on the 3rd.

[RogueBeaver]

Mum on what will be discussed, though the charter is among topics on the agenda.

[RogueBeaver]

The meeting continues without a lunch break, and it'll be a working dinner.

Solid take from Grenier.